沙利文以色列总裁 狄伦博士（Dr. Tiran Rothman）
在本次论坛上，沙利文以色列总狄伦博士狄伦博士以“药物开发领域投资模式”为题发表演讲，详细论述了行为经济、行为准则，及投资者在资本市场的活跃度，例如十二月效应、周一效应等。他表示，好消息并不总是一个积极的信号，重大事件发生会伴随剧烈的下跌，后者尤其令人费解，因为它与自然界格格不入，在这些“不被关注”的投资中，投资者会受到心理影响。
Dr. Tiran Rothman, a proponent of behavioral economics, navigated the intricate link between psychology and investments in his recent presentation at the 2nd New Investment Expo and the 17th Frost & Sullivan Growth, Innovation, and Leadership Summit. Combining elements from both fields, he shed light on how human behavior significantly influences financial decisions, transcending sectors and markets.
Behavioral economics, a blend of psychology and economics, aims to understand human behavior from a psychological standpoint and integrate this understanding into economic models. The underlying assumption of traditional economics theory is that individuals are rational as well as making investment decisions. However, increasing research is revealing that people are sophisticated, and psychology plays a critical role in all decision-making.
The fundamental premise lies in Adam Smith’s proclamation. “All money is a matter of belief.” Tiran articulated how this quote underlines the intangible nature of money, solely existing because of collective belief in its value. This forms the cornerstone of behavioral economics, where the psychology of investors intricately intertwines with economic models.
Throughout his presentation, Tiran drew parallels between daily life psychology and its manifestation in investment behaviors. From the concept of mental accounting, where individuals compartmentalize their activities, to cognitive psychology’s illusions shaping perceptions, He also illustrated the behavior codex, detailing how psychology is used in marketing and influencing individuals. He took pension saving as an example, explaining how showing individuals their future selves will prompt them to save more. The discussion seamlessly moved from mundane activities to their implications in financial markets.
Moreover, Tiran discussed the disposition effect, a behavioral pattern where individuals hold onto losing stocks while selling the winners. Contrary to traditional economic logic, He revealed the impact of psychological factors, such as early-day euphoria before holidays, on market behaviors. These nuances highlight the profound effect of human psychology on investment decision-making and outcomes.
Delving deeper, Tiran presented case studies within the drug development sector, particularly the surprising stock declines post-FDA approvals. This divergence from expected market responses underscores the significant psychological impact on smaller companies following pivotal events such as FDA greenlights or IPOs. Another intriguing revelation that emerged from Tiran’s study is that common investors, not institutional ones, have substantial influence over stock price movements after significant events. This unexpected insight challenged traditional perceptions about market dynamics and investor behaviors, hinting at untapped potential in understanding individual psychology in investment strategies.
Concluding his presentation, Tiran advocated for a nuanced approach to investment decision-making. He posited that recognizing and leveraging psychological insights can uncover hidden investment opportunities, especially in smaller technology companies. This view could potentially pave the way for lucrative investments, unlocking profitable avenues in the market through a deeper understanding of human behavior.
In essence, Tiran’s presentation served as a compelling exploration into the intersection of psychology and investments. It underscored the pivotal role of human psychology in shaping financial market dynamics and advocated for a holistic understanding of individual behaviors for informed and potentially profitable investment decisions.
