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9月9日，2026年中国国际服务贸易交易会正式开幕，弗若斯特沙利文（Frost & Sullivan，简称“沙利文”）亮相本届服贸会“运输和商务服务专题展”。服贸会期间，沙利文联合头豹面向全球首发《中国未来50年产业发展趋势白皮书（第五期）》双语完整版。
On September 9, 2026, the China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) officially opened. Frost & Sullivan participated in the Transportation and Business Services thematic exhibition at this year's CIFTIS. During the fair, Frost & Sullivan, in partnership with LeadLeo, unveiled the global debut of the bilingual complete edition of the “White Paper on China's Industrial Development Trends for the Next 50 Years (5th Edition)”.
世界百年变局向纵深演进，全球产业发展范式正加速重构。科技革命成果集中爆发、产业链供应链深度调整与可持续发展共识持续深化，三重力量交织共振，驱动生产方式与增长逻辑发生代际切换，全球产业版图迎来系统性重塑，分工体系面临深刻调整，既带来产业链重构的结构性挑战，也孕育着跨国协同创新与资源优化配置的全新机遇。作为全球第二大经济体与负责任大国，中国始终秉持互利共赢理念，以中国式现代化的坚实实践拓展产业发展空间，以高质量发展的丰硕成果为全球经济增长注入稳定动能，以高水平对外开放的务实举措与世界共享产业升级红利。站在“十五五”开局的历史节点，白皮书围绕人工智能、智能制造、大消费、医疗健康、半导体五大核心产业，系统拆解未来五十年中国核心产业的技术演进路径、市场增长空间与格局演化逻辑，为各界把握长期发展脉络、布局长远战略提供专业参考与战略洞见。
Profound changes unseen in a century are unfolding in greater depth across the world, and the paradigm of global industrial development is being restructured at an accelerated pace. Three forces are converging and reinforcing one another: technological breakthroughs are emerging in concentrated bursts, industrial and supply chains are undergoing deep adjustment, and the consensus on sustainable development continues to deepen. Together, they are driving a generational shift in modes of production and the logic of growth, ushering in a systemic reshaping of the global industrial landscape and a profound realignment of the global division of labor. This transformation poses structural challenges as industrial chains are reconfigured, while opening up entirely new opportunities for cross-border collaborative innovation and the optimized allocation of resources. As the world's second-largest economy and a responsible major power, China continues to expand industrial development space through the solid practice of Chinese modernization, inject stable momentum into global economic growth through high-quality development, and share the dividends of industrial upgrading with the world through high-standard opening-up. At the historical juncture marking the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, this White Paper systematically deconstructs the technological evolution trajectories, market growth potential, and structural transformation logic of China's core industries over the next 50 years, focusing on Artificial Intelligence, Intelligent Manufacturing, Mass Consumption, Healthcare, and Semiconductors, to provide professional reference and strategic insights for all stakeholders.
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沙利文中国执行总监 张雨晨
世界百年变局向纵深演进，全球产业发展范式正加速重构。在科技革命成果集中爆发、产业链及供应链深度调整、可持续发展共识持续深化三重力量的交织牵引下，未来五十年全球产业版图正迎来系统性重塑，生产方式与增长逻辑的代际切换，既带来全球分工重构的深刻挑战，也孕育着跨国协同创新的全新机遇。作为全球第二大经济体与负责任大国，中国始终秉持互利共赢理念，以中国式现代化的坚实实践拓展产业发展空间，以高质量发展的丰硕成果为全球经济增长注入稳定动能，以高水平对外开放的务实举措与世界共享产业升级红利。站在“十五五“开局的历史节点，白皮书围绕人工智能、智能制造、大消费、医疗健康、半导体五大核心产业，系统拆解未来五十年中国核心产业的技术演进路径、市场增长空间与格局演化逻辑，为各界把握长期发展脉络、布局长远战略提供专业参考与战略洞见。
01
中国人工智能产业依托超大规模算力底座与完整技术生态，正经历从内容生成向任务执行的范式转换，大模型、智能体与物理AI的协同演进推动AI从数字空间向物理世界渗透，重塑产业效率边界与科学研究范式。
China's artificial intelligence industry, underpinned by ultra-large-scale computing infrastructure and a complete technological ecosystem, is undergoing a paradigm shift from content generation to task execution. The synergistic evolution of large models, intelligent agents, and physical AI is driving AI's penetration from digital space into the physical world, reshaping industrial efficiency boundaries and scientific research paradigms.
中国已构建覆盖基础层、技术层与应用层的完整人工智能产业体系，企业注册量与专利申请量同步增长，互联网用户规模与智能算力基础设施构成全球独有的应用试验场。智能算力需求从预训练向推理服务与智能体执行延伸，Token调用量呈指数级增长，推理侧成为算力消耗主阵地。大模型产业进入分层协同供给阶段，闭源旗舰、开源权重、行业专用与高效架构模型并行发展，中美顶级模型性能相对差距收窄至低个位数区间。
China has established a complete AI industrial system spanning the foundational, technological, and application layers. The synchronized growth in enterprise registrations and patent applications, combined with its massive internet user base and intelligent computing infrastructure, constitutes a globally unique application testbed. Intelligent computing demand is extending from pre-training to inference services and agent execution, with token consumption growing exponentially and the inference side becoming the primary locus of compute consumption. The large model industry has entered a stage of stratified collaborative supply, with closed-source flagship, open-source weight, industry-specific, and efficient-architecture models developing in parallel. The performance gap between top-tier Chinese and U.S. models has narrowed to the low single-digit range.
Agent技术推动人工智能从内容生成进入任务执行阶段，企业级Agent正嵌入核心业务流程，消费级Agent重塑搜索、学习与办公交互入口。物理AI与AI4S打开长期增量空间，具身智能与科学智能成为连接数字世界与物理环境的前沿方向。开源生态加速普及，企业部署偏向开放路线，软硬协同与复杂场景交付成为厂商能力的关键变量。
Agent technology is propelling AI from content generation into task execution. Enterprise-grade agents are being embedded into core business processes, while consumer-grade agents are reshaping interaction entry points for search, learning, and office productivity. Physical AI and AI for Science (AI4S) are opening long-term incremental space, with embodied intelligence and scientific intelligence becoming frontier directions connecting digital and physical environments. The open-source ecosystem is accelerating adoption, with enterprise deployments increasingly favoring open routes; hardware-software synergy and complex scenario delivery have become critical capability differentiators for vendors.
展望未来，中国人工智能产业将在算力重构、模型分层与工程化落地中持续深化，智能体编排与物理世界交互能力的突破将推动人工智能从辅助工具向自主决策系统演进。随着多模态融合与端侧智能普及，AI有望成为驱动全产业数字化转型的核心引擎，并在科学研究与物理世界自动化领域释放更大增量空间。
Going forward, China's AI industry will continue to deepen through computing infrastructure reconstruction, model stratification, and engineering deployment. Breakthroughs in agent orchestration and physical-world interaction capabilities will drive AI's evolution from assistive tools toward autonomous decision-making systems. As multimodal fusion and edge intelligence proliferate, AI is poised to become the core engine driving digital transformation across all industries, unlocking greater incremental potential in scientific research and physical-world automation.
资料来源：沙利文分析，头豹研究院
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis, LeadLeo
02
在新质生产力战略引领下，中国制造业正加速从规模成本优势向效率与智能驱动转型，智能制造装备、工业机器人与低空经济等新兴领域协同突破，灯塔工厂与柔性制造体系推动产业向全球价值链高端稳步跃迁。
Under the strategic guidance of new-quality productive forces, China's manufacturing sector is accelerating its transition from scale and cost advantages toward efficiency and intelligence-driven transformation. Collaborative breakthroughs in intelligent manufacturing equipment, industrial robots, and low-altitude economy are advancing steadily, while lighthouse factories and flexible manufacturing systems propel the industry's ascent toward the high end of the global value chain.
中国制造业总体规模连续十六年位居全球第一，智能制造装备产业持续扩容，灯塔工厂数量全球领先，关键工序数控化率与数字化研发设计工具普及率显著提升，为迈入工业4.0奠定坚实根基。产业智能化转型纵深推进，AI与数字孪生技术推动智能工厂建设重心从感知层向认知与决策层迁移，柔性制造与C2M模式加速落地。
China's manufacturing output has ranked first globally for sixteen consecutive years. The intelligent manufacturing equipment sector continues to expand, the number of lighthouse factories leads the world, and the digitalization rates of critical processes and R&D design tools have improved significantly, laying a solid foundation for advancing toward Industry 4.0. The intelligent transformation of industry is advancing in depth: AI and digital twin technologies are shifting the focus of smart factory construction from the perception layer toward the cognitive and decision-making layers, while flexible manufacturing and C2M models are accelerating deployment.
工业机器人本土竞争力持续增强，产量稳步增长，人形机器人从实验室走向工业场景，核心零部件国产化全面提速。低空经济在空域改革与技术创新驱动下开启商业化新周期，eVTOL适航取证进度全面领跑，政策体系从基础设施、法律保障到消费场景全面赋能。离散型与流程型行业的差异化需求驱动智能制造解决方案向全域协同方向演进。
The indigenous competitiveness of industrial robots continues to strengthen, with steady output growth. Humanoid robots are transitioning from laboratories to industrial scenarios, and the localization of core components is accelerating across the board. Driven by airspace reform and technological innovation, the low-altitude economy is entering a new commercialization cycle, with eVTOL airworthiness certification progress leading globally. The policy system is providing comprehensive empowerment spanning infrastructure, legal safeguards, and consumption scenarios. Differentiated demands from discrete and process industries are driving intelligent manufacturing solutions toward domain-wide collaborative evolution.
展望未来，智能制造将依托全产业链协同与场景化落地持续深化，AI与5G、数字孪生等技术融合推动产品、制造、管理、服务全面智能化转型。机器人与低空装备等新兴领域有望成为制造业增长的重要支撑，随着行业标准体系完善与国产化率提升，中国制造业将向全球价值链高端持续迈进。
Looking ahead, intelligent manufacturing will continue to deepen through full-industry-chain collaboration and scenario-based deployment. The convergence of AI with 5G, digital twin, and other technologies will drive comprehensive intelligent transformation across products, manufacturing, management, and services. Emerging domains such as robotics and low-altitude equipment are expected to become important growth pillars for manufacturing. As industry standard systems mature and localization rates improve, China's manufacturing sector will continue its steady advance toward the high end of the global value chain.
资料来源：国家统计局，中国信通院，中国电子技术标准化研究院，中国高科技产业化研究会，沙利文分析，头豹研究院
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, CAICT, China Electronics Technology Standardization Institute, China High-Tech Industrialization Association, Frost & Sullivan Analysis, LeadLeo
03
中国大消费产业在内需主动力地位确立的背景下，正经历从规模扩张向结构跃迁的深层变革，技术、人口与政策三重力量驱动消费生态向三维融合网络演进，服务消费上位与悦己、长寿、低碳多元赛道并行崛起。
Against the backdrop of established domestic demand as the primary growth driver, China's mass consumption industry is undergoing a deep structural transition from scale expansion to quality migration. The triple forces of technology, demographics, and policy are driving the consumption ecosystem toward a three-dimensional fusion network, with service consumption ascending and multiple tracks—self-pleasure, longevity, and low-carbon—rising in parallel.
社会消费品零售总额持续扩容，城乡消费协同发展趋势明确，中等收入群体规模全球领先，消费率较发达经济体仍有充裕提升空间。消费结构从生存型向发展享受型深度切换，服务性消费支出占比趋势性上行，恩格尔系数整体呈下降趋势，发展享受型消费空间进一步释放。
Total retail sales of consumer goods continue to expand, urban-rural consumption synergy is clearly trending, and the scale of the middle-income group ranks among the world's largest, with ample room for consumption-rate improvement relative to developed economies. The consumption structure is shifting deeply from survival-oriented to enjoyment-oriented consumption: the share of service consumption in total expenditure is trending upward, the overall Engel coefficient is declining, and space for enjoyment-oriented consumption is further being released.
数字技术推动供给逻辑从批量定义标准化产品转向响应个性化需求，AI Agent重构供应链决策，柔性产能与C2M模式推动生产逻辑从以产定销转向以需定产。消费入口从平台集中向场景分散调整，即时零售与近场商业重塑人货场逻辑，线上线下融合的新零售业态成为标准配置。消费产业内部架构正从线性链条向物理、数字、服务三维融合网络演进。
Digital technology is reshaping supply logic from batch-defined standardized products toward responsive personalization. AI agents are reconstructing supply-chain decision-making, while flexible capacity and C2M models are shifting production logic from production-driven sales to demand-driven production. Consumption entry points are adjusting from platform concentration toward scenario dispersion; instant retail and proximity commerce are reshaping the human-goods-venue logic, and online-offline integrated new retail formats have become standard configuration. The internal architecture of the consumption industry is evolving from linear chains toward a three-dimensional fusion network of physical, digital, and service layers.
展望未来，大消费产业将在服务消费扩容与消费率提升中持续释放潜力，悦己经济、长寿经济与低碳消费的结构性机会将随代际更迭与老龄化深化而加速涌现。随着中等收入群体扩容与城镇化质量提升，消费产业有望从规模驱动向效率与创新驱动切换，推动中国从消费大国向消费强国稳步跨越。
Going forward, the mass consumption industry will continue to unlock potential through service consumption expansion and consumption-rate improvement. Structural opportunities in self-pleasure economy, longevity economy, and low-carbon consumption will accelerate with generational turnover and deepening aging. As the middle-income group expands and urbanization quality improves, the consumption industry is expected to switch from scale-driven to efficiency- and innovation-driven growth, steadily advancing China from a major consumption country toward a consumption power.
资料来源：国家统计局，沙利文分析，头豹研究院
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Frost & Sullivan Analysis, LeadLeo
04
中国医疗健康产业在政策、临床、技术与资本四维驱动下，正从仿制药粗放扩张转向源头创新与全球商业化协同，创新药出海、合成生物落地与AI医疗器械崛起三大主线重塑产业价值链，人口深度老龄化构筑长期需求基石。
Driven by the four-dimensional forces of policy, clinical demand, technology, and capital, China's healthcare industry is transitioning from undifferentiated scale expansion of generic drugs toward original innovation and global commercialization synergy. The three main lines of innovative drug globalization, synthetic biology commercialization, and AI medical device emergence are reshaping the industrial value chain, while profound population aging constitutes the long-term demand foundation.
本土创新研发实力快速崛起，在研药物管线规模位居全球前列，新药IND申报中国产化药与生物药稳步增长，ADC、细胞疗法等前沿赛道全面布局。药品审评审批制度优化推动产业形成创新药加速转化、仿制提质扩容与存量升级并行的发展格局，审评受理规模持续扩大。
Indigenous innovative R&D capabilities are rising rapidly. The scale of drug pipelines under development ranks among the world's highest; domestic chemical and biological new drug IND filings are growing steadily; and frontier tracks such as ADC and cell therapy are comprehensively deployed. Optimization of the drug review and approval system has fostered a development pattern featuring accelerated innovative drug translation, quality-upgraded generic drug expansion, and legacy product upgrading in parallel, with continuously expanding review and acceptance scale.
六大联动政策支撑体系构成产业全周期营商闭环，产业链形成上游底层技术平台、中游生产制造、下游医疗服务与健康运营的三层完整架构。创新药对外授权交易持续扩容，中国从海外技术引进方转变为全球核心技术输出地。合成生物学在医疗健康领域率先实现规模化落地，AI医疗器械成为补齐医疗资源短板的核心力量。
A six-pillar linked policy support system constitutes a full-cycle business environment. The industrial chain has formed a complete three-tier architecture: upstream underlying technology platforms, midstream production and manufacturing, and downstream medical services and health operations. Innovative drug out-licensing transactions continue to expand, with China transitioning from a net importer of overseas technology to a global core technology exporter. Synthetic biology is achieving scaled commercialization in healthcare ahead of other sectors, and AI medical devices are becoming a core force in bridging medical resource gaps.
展望未来，医疗健康产业将从疾病治疗逐步迈向生命健康管理，合成生物学、创新药全球化与AI医疗器械将成为拉动产业升级的核心力量。随着数字生命体、AI决策系统与分布式生物智造技术成熟，产业有望构建覆盖预防、诊断、治疗、康复全周期的闭环生态，筑牢未来五十年长效增长根基。
Looking ahead, the healthcare industry will evolve progressively from disease treatment toward life-cycle health management. Synthetic biology, innovative drug globalization, and AI medical devices will become core forces driving industrial upgrading. As digital lifeforms, AI decision systems, and distributed biomanufacturing technologies mature, the industry is expected to build a closed-loop ecosystem covering prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation, securing the foundation for long-term growth over the next 50 years.
资料来源：中国生物技术发展中心，沙利文分析，头豹研究院
Source: China National Center for Biotechnology Development, Frost & Sullivan Analysis, LeadLeo
05
在AI算力需求爆发与摩尔定律边际放缓的双重作用下，中国半导体产业正从单一芯片供给向算力系统、先进封装、设备工艺与软件生态的全链条协同升级，依托应用牵引与产业配套优势沿价值链上移路径稳步突破。
Under the dual forces of exploding AI computing demand and the marginal slowdown of Moore's Law, China's semiconductor industry is upgrading from single-chip supply toward full-chain synergy encompassing computing systems, advanced packaging, equipment processes, and software ecosystems. Leveraging application-driven traction and industrial supporting advantages, the industry is making steady breakthroughs along the path of moving up the value chain.
半导体正从信息产业基础升级为支撑AI算力、智能汽车、工业机器人与能源电子的底层技术平台，终端场景持续拉动芯片需求。国家集成电路产业投资基金与科创板共同支撑长周期投入，区域集群提升工程验证效率，梯度企业培育强化细分配套能力。国产芯片竞争重点从基础替代转向分场景能力建设，软件生态与客户验证周期成为关键变量。
Semiconductors are upgrading from an information industry foundation to an underlying technology platform supporting AI computing, intelligent vehicles, industrial robots, and power electronics, with terminal scenarios continuously driving chip demand. The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund and the STAR Market jointly support long-cycle investment; regional clusters enhance engineering verification efficiency; and tiered enterprise cultivation strengthens segmented supporting capabilities. The focus of domestic chip competition is shifting from basic substitution toward scenario-specific capability building, with software ecosystems and customer validation cycles becoming critical variables.
先进封装从后道制造升级为系统性能设计环节，Chiplet与异构集成提升架构灵活性，2.5D/3D、混合键合等技术支撑高密度互联。全球价值链高度分工背景下，中国区域生态形成长三角制造配套、珠三角应用转化、京津冀科研创新、中西部特色制造的差异化布局。设备需求增长为国产设备导入提供窗口，但持续放量仍取决于工艺协同与量产稳定性。
Advanced packaging is upgrading from back-end manufacturing to a system-level performance design function. Chiplet and heterogeneous integration enhance architectural flexibility, while 2.5D/3D and hybrid bonding technologies support high-density interconnection. Against the backdrop of highly segmented global value chains, China's regional ecosystems have formed a differentiated layout: the Yangtze River Delta for manufacturing support, the Pearl River Delta for application translation, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei for scientific research innovation, and the central and western regions for specialized manufacturing. Growing equipment demand provides a window for domestic equipment adoption, but sustained volume growth remains contingent upon process synergy and mass-production stability.
展望未来，中国半导体产业将沿补短板、链条协同到系统级创新的路径持续上移价值链，AI算力系统芯片、高密度异构集成封装、三维结构量测检测设备及新型存储等赛道将成为重点突破方向。随着本土应用验证沉淀为可靠性数据与全球客户信任，中国半导体有望从应用牵引中心向全球生态竞争参与者稳步演进。
Going forward, China's semiconductor industry will continue to move up the value chain along the path of gap-filling, chain synergy, and system-level innovation. AI computing system chips, high-density heterogeneous integration packaging, three-dimensional structural metrology and inspection equipment, and novel memory technologies will be key breakthrough directions. As local application validation accumulates into reliability data and global customer trust, China's semiconductor industry is expected to evolve steadily from an application-driven hub toward a participant in global ecosystem competition.
资料来源：SIA，美国国际贸易管理局，TSIA，国家统计局，沙利文分析，头豹研究院
Source: SIA, U.S. International Trade Administration, TSIA, National Bureau of Statistics, Frost & Sullivan Analysis, LeadLeo
