Shanghai, 4 August 2026. At the 2026 Frost & Sullivan GIL Summit, Prof. Vinod K. Aggarwal — Global Chief Economist of Frost & Sullivan, Distinguished Professor at UC Berkeley and Director of the Berkeley APEC Study Center (BASC) — delivered his address. He argued that even as the world remains deeply interconnected, it is rapidly fragmenting. Tariffs, export controls and investment screening — tools of what he calls the New Economic Statecraft — mean that market strategy alone is no longer enough. His message to executives: pursue an integrated strategy that connects the market and non-market arenas and tailor it to each market — that is how companies stay profitable in an increasingly fragmented world.
2026年8月4日，上海。在2026沙利文峰会现场，沙利文全球首席经济学家、加州大学伯克利分校杰出教授、伯克利亚太经合组织（APEC）研究中心主任葛万威教授（Prof. Vinod K. Aggarwal）发表致辞。他指出，世界在深度互联的同时正加速走向碎片化；关税、出口管制、投资审查等“新经济治国方略”手段，意味着仅靠市场战略已远远不够。他寄语企业家：以整合战略打通市场与非市场两大领域，并针对不同市场因地制宜——这才是企业在日益碎片化的世界中持续盈利、行稳致远的关键。
沙利文全球首席经济学家、加州大学伯克利分校杰出教授、伯克利亚太经合组织(APEC)研究中心主任 葛万威教授
Prof. Vinod K. Aggarwal, Global Chief Economist, Frost & Sullivan; Distinguished Professor, UC Berkeley; Director, Berkeley APEC Study Center (BASC)
以下为葛万威教授（Prof. Vinod K. Aggarwal）致辞要点：
Thank you everyone. It's a great pleasure to be here. I'd like to thank David Frigstad and to congratulate him on this wonderful occasion. Thank Aroop Zutshi who's done a wonderful job with globalization. And then I'd also like to thank Neil Wang for this opportunity to come here and talk to you. You know when I've been to Shanghai before. But every time I come, it's so different. So I tell my friends, you want to see the future, come to Shanghai. And I'm pleased to be here. So let me begin by talking about maybe not the conventional wisdom. We all talk about globalization. David mentioned we're going through this dramatic transformation. But in fact, over the last 40 years, we have seen globalization. Companies have been preparing for globalization. Unfortunately, globalization is not the only thing that's happening. We are also seeing a fragmenting world. And I think that's very important to keep in mind as you pursue your globalization strategy. And what I'm going to be talking about is some of my own work on what we call new economic statecraft. And why this is something you need to think about. Because of new economic statecraft, companies need to craft both market strategies and as Aroop mentioned nonmarket strategies. And I will explain what that means. And why Frost & Sullivan can help you do that. Finally, we'll talk about the tactics you might use to implement your strategies, which is central to being a successful company.
谢谢各位。非常荣幸来到这里。首先感谢富大为，也祝贺他迎来这场盛会。感谢祖亚儒，他在全球化相关工作上成果卓著。同时，也感谢王昕博士，让我有机会来到这里与各位交流。我以前来过上海，但每一次到访，这座城市都焕然一新。我常跟朋友们说：想看见未来，就来上海。很开心今天能站在这里。接下来我想聊点和传统认知不太一样的话题。我们总在谈论全球化，富大为也提到，世界正经历一场巨大变革。过去四十年来，全球化浪潮滚滚向前，各家企业也一直在为全球化布局。但遗憾的是，世界并非只有全球化这一股趋势，我们同时正在见证全球格局走向碎片化。各位在制定全球化战略时，一定要把这一点记在心里。今天我会分享我研究的课题——新经济治国方略，讲讲为什么企业必须重视这一概念。受新经济治国方略的影响，企业不仅要制定市场战略，正如祖亚儒提到的，还必须打造非市场战略。接下来我会解释它的内涵，也会说明沙利文可以如何协助企业完成这件事。最后，我会介绍落地这些战略可采用的实操手段，这也是企业取得成功的关键。
So, let's think about how the world was that we hoped it would be. And it was like this for 30 or 40 years. We had deals being made. People traveling around the world. Everything was going quite smoothly. And the theory behind this is a well-known theory called commercial peace theory. When I teach executives and I say which of many theories do you like the most, they love commercial peace theory. Because commercial peace theory says the more you interact, the more you do business, the better place the world will be. I'm not against that. I wish it were completely true. And there is evidence. We see more channels to settle disputes among government, business and people. We see that the problem of cutting ties is that it's very detrimental to the global economy. We see the example of the European Union which was created to prevent war between France and Germany. And on that score, it has been extremely successful. Because European Union has by and large been a very peaceful zone after hundreds of years of war. But we also see the negotiation of various bilateral and multilateral trade agreements which have been good in some cases, but in some cases have been detrimental. So what was the vision. The vision is the world is flat. This became a very popular book that the world is flat.
回想三四十年来，我们曾期待世界会走向这样一种图景：各国达成商业协议，人员跨国往来，一切运转顺畅。支撑这套愿景的，就是著名的商业和平理论。我给企业高管授课时会问，众多理论中大家最喜欢哪一个，商业和平理论总是备受青睐。这套理论认为：国家之间互动越多、商业往来越密切，世界就会越美好。我并不否定这套观点，也由衷希望它完全成立，现实中也确实存在相关佐证。我们看到，各国政府、企业、民众之间有了更多争端解决渠道；也看到，切断经贸联系会给全球经济带来巨大损失。欧盟就是典型例子，它成立的初衷就是避免法德两国再度开战，从这一点来看，欧盟取得了巨大成功，历经数百年战火之后，欧洲大体上成为一片和平的区域。与此同时，各类双边、多边贸易协定陆续落地，部分协定带来了利好，但也有一些协定产生了负面效果。曾经的愿景是“世界是平的”，这也出自一本风靡全球的著作。
Technology is connecting the world. Everyone will have equal opportunity. And we will see the rise of nations outside of the industrialized west. That's true we've seen the rise of China. We've seen the rise of India. The rise of Mexico and Brazil and many other countries. But the argument that Thomas Friedman made was only a technological argument. But the technological argument needs to be merged together with the political economic structure in which we operated. And that is under threat. We see a rise of protectionism in the global economy, very critical for firms trying to operate globally. We see what we call a spaghetti or a noodle bowl of trade accords. Since I'm in China, we all know that Marco Polo took spaghetti from China. So, we should use the term noodle bowl, not spaghetti bowl. But this kind of description of what's going on in the world economy suggests that pure globalization is having a problem. We see the rise of what we call mega free trade agreements, agreements among the Asian countries China, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand. We see the effort to create a transatlantic trade and investment partnership. And we see the Trans Pacific Partnership which is subset of APEC members which has now become CPTPP, Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership. The problem is however that we see that whereas we have a lot of economic interdependence, it is also possible for countries to manipulate economic interdependence.
书中认为，技术将把全世界联结起来，所有人都能获得平等机遇，西方工业化国家之外，众多新兴国家将会崛起。现实确实如此，中国、印度、墨西哥、巴西等一大批国家都实现了崛起。但托马斯·弗里德曼的论述仅仅停留在技术层面。技术层面的推演，必须和我们所处的政治、经济现实框架结合在一起，而如今这套框架正遭受冲击。全球范围内保护主义不断抬头，这对跨国经营的企业来说影响重大。全球贸易协定交织，形成了所谓的“面条碗效应”。既然我身处中国，大家都知道面条是经由马可·波罗从中国传到西方的，所以我们应当叫它“面条碗”，而不是“意大利面碗”。这一比喻恰恰说明纯粹的全球化已经遭遇困境。各类大型自贸协定不断涌现：中日韩、澳大利亚、新西兰等亚洲国家签署相关协定；各方曾推动跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定谈判；还有原本属于APEC部分成员国的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定，后来演变为《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）。但问题在于，即便各国经济深度相互依存，部分国家依旧会利用这种经济依存关系谋取私利。
What we see is the politicization of people, goods and data. We see that the World Trade Organization which provided the fundamental basis for globalization is increasingly under threat. China joined the WTO in 2001 and successfully integrated into global markets. We see states prioritizing national security implications. Often, they say it's national security, but it's often just simple protectionism. So, we have lots of intervention in the market. So, this term this phenomenon is something I have called with one of my former students who's now a professor at Berkeley: New Economic Statecraft, the use of economic tools whether it's industrial policy, trade restrictions or investment regulations to achieve geopolitical strategic objectives. Now how do countries do this. They engage in measures at the border, behind the border and beyond the border.
人员、商品、数据都被卷入政治博弈。作为全球化基石的世界贸易组织，正不断受到冲击。中国2001年加入世贸组织，顺利融入全球市场。如今不少国家把国家安全放在优先位置，嘴上打着国家安全的旗号，很多时候本质却是赤裸裸的保护主义，市场干预行为层出不穷。我和我从前的学生——如今任职于伯克利大学的一位教授，共同提出了新经济治国方略这一概念：国家运用产业政策、贸易限制、投资监管等经济工具，来实现地缘政治与战略目标。各国会通过三类手段达成目的：边境层面、境内层面、跨境层面。
And we can see some examples of trade policy using tariffs which was mentioned in the previous presentation, quotas, taxing exports, customs regulations. On the investment side, we see rules about investment. We have this American rule FIRRMA, Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act which also regulates foreign investment. What does this mean for companies. They cannot simply enter any market without understanding the stakeholders, the governments that are involved that are using these measures in some cases to restrict access to their market. Behind the border, we see measures such as subsidies, regulation, health standards and safety standards. Which I believe in many of these standards, but sometimes they are used simply to protect firms that don't want to compete. We see governments using actions to encourage or restrict foreign investment in their markets. And finally, we see these beyond the border examples, trade promotion or investment promotion in other countries, regulations by international organizations and even efforts to regulate AI by the EU. This is a difficult problem for the EU of course, because the EU is far behind the leaders in AI which are China and the United States. And so, regulating something that is evolving so quickly is very difficult. And the EU has seen that problem. So, what do we see. We see this journal I edited called business and politics where we need to analyze both the market and non-market environment.
边境层面的贸易政策手段，包括上一位演讲嘉宾提到的关税、配额、出口征税、海关监管。投资领域则出台各类投资监管规则，例如美国的《外国投资风险审查现代化法案》，专门管控外来投资。这对企业意味着什么？企业想要进入一个市场，就必须充分了解相关利益方与政府机构，有些国家会借助上述手段限制外来主体进入本国市场。再看境内层面：补贴、监管制度、卫生标准、安全标准。很多标准本身具备合理性，但有些时候，这些标准只是被用来庇护不愿参与竞争的本土企业。各国政府还会出台政策，鼓励或是限制外资进入本国市场。最后是跨境层面：在其他国家开展贸易与投资促进活动；国际组织出台监管规则；还有欧盟尝试对人工智能立法。对欧盟而言，这是一项棘手的难题，因为在人工智能领域，中国和美国处于领先地位，欧盟远远落后。要对迭代速度如此之快的技术进行监管，难度可想而知，欧盟也正深陷这一困境。我主编过一本名为《商业与政治》的期刊，核心观点就是企业需要同时分析市场环境与非市场环境。
And you're all familiar with Porter, Michael Porter’s strategy Five Forces. Every business school student learns this model. And it's very important. It was a useful model to understand the firm's organizational and market environment. However, this is also a limited model. It does not take into account all actors. It does not take into account of courts, media, government policy, other stakeholders. And as David Frigstad said, we need to be able to address as CEOs, you need to think about all of your stakeholders. And that is very important for success. So as the manager, as the CEO and even if you're not CEO, you need to think about both market strategy and non-market strategy. And the market environments determine the significance of non-market issues. If we are developing AI, it is not simply something that is only for commercial use and that no one else will care about. Many people are very upset with AI all over the world, not just in China and the United States but everywhere. Because they are concerned that there will be job losses, that there will be a change in how companies operate and that will be very detrimental. It could be very positive, but it could be detrimental. Non-market strategy shapes business opportunities. The creation of the EU affected German competitiveness. The creation of RCEP with China at the center of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world's largest mega free trade agreement will affect how Chinese companies and Thai companies and Japanese companies do business in this new free trade agreement. So how should we think about these issues.
大家都熟知迈克尔·波特的五力模型，几乎所有商学院学生都会学习这套经典理论，它可以帮助企业理解自身组织与市场环境，价值不言而喻，但这套模型也存在局限性。它没有覆盖全部参与主体，没有纳入法院、媒体、政府政策以及其他各类利益相关方。正如富大为所说，企业的CEO必须兼顾所有利益相关方，这是企业成功的关键。因此，无论是高管、CEO，还是普通管理者，都要同时思考市场战略与非市场战略。市场环境会决定非市场议题的重要程度。以人工智能研发为例，它绝不只是一项单纯的商业技术，不可能只由企业说了算。全球各地，不只是中美，各个国家都有大量民众对人工智能心存顾虑。人们担忧人工智能会造成失业、重塑企业运行模式，带来负面冲击；当然人工智能也有可能带来巨大利好，但风险客观存在。非市场战略会实实在在地影响商业机遇。欧盟的建立改变了德国的竞争格局；以中国为核心的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）——全球规模最大的巨型自贸协定落地，也会深刻改变中国、泰国、日本等国企业的商业模式。如何应对这些问题？
I won't go into great detail. But let me just talk about what David Baron at Stanford Business School has called the need for an integrated strategy. Companies need to pursue a market strategy which you're all familiar with. But they also need to understand non-market strategy. How can I work with stakeholders in different countries. How can I be successful. So, it's not just about one model fits all. I may have as a Chinese company a global strategy, but that global strategy needs to be tailored for individual markets. And American companies have seen that as well. If they just pursue one global strategy, you cannot think that the Chinese market is the same as the Korean market or the German market. You must tailor your strategy. And you need to implement through this through various tactics. I'll spend just another few minutes on this issue. This kind of framework building on David Baron says the first thing you need to know what is the issue, what is concerning people, what is concerning your stakeholders. The second is who are the critical actors on that issue. Who will be concerned as you know, TikTok was in the United States, it became a very complicated situation or Huawei in the United States or American companies going into Europe, all of this has become complicated. Then we need to know what interests do the actors have. We need to know where will they interact. Is it going to be social media or formal institutions. We need to know what information these actors have. And finally, we need to know what assets. So just as you analyze the market, you need to analyze the non-market environment.
我不展开细讲，简单介绍斯坦福商学院戴维·巴伦提出的整合式战略思路。企业既要做好大家熟知的市场战略，也必须吃透非市场战略：学会和不同国家的多方利益相关方打交道，才能取得成功。不存在一套万能的全球方案。即便是中国企业制定全球战略，也必须针对不同市场做本地化调整，美国企业同样吃过这方面的亏。不能想当然认为中国市场、韩国市场、德国市场可以套用同一套打法，战略必须因地制宜，再通过各类具体手段落地执行。基于戴维·巴伦的理论，简单梳理一套分析框架： 第一，厘清核心议题：民众、利益相关方到底在关切什么。第二，识别该议题下的关键参与方。就像TikTok在美国遭遇的风波、华为在美国的境遇，还有美国企业进军欧洲市场，都面临错综复杂的局面。第三，理清各方参与主体的利益诉求。第四，明确各方博弈的场域：是社交媒体，还是正式制度机构？第五，掌握各方掌握的信息资源。第六，梳理各方拥有的资源禀赋。分析非市场环境，要像分析市场一样严谨细致。
I won't go through all of these but clearly explosion of new technology and innovation is leading to such kinds of backlash whether it's Google Map. And there's a famous case. I know you think I'm making this up. But when Google Maps was becoming popular, there was a woman in Oakland, California where I live who complained that her cat was visible in the window. And she said my cat has a right to privacy. And Google started changing its policies, its market strategy to wipe out pictures of cats and people. So companies think and many engineers think that, this is such a great product, but they do not look at the societal and political implications of their product whether it's you know thinking about child labor or pollution etc or changing institutions. Actors, many kinds of actors are involved. It's not just about the market, the competitors and the customers. It's about the regulators, the governments the NGOs. And you need to understand on any one issue, who are the critical actors. You need to understand what are the interests. What do actors want. Are they united. Are they aligned. This also helps you understand what your strategy should be. We need to know what the arena. Is it informal. Is it formal. Is it on the web. How does this interaction take place. In a world of social media, many of the interactions take place on the web not in formal institutions. We need to think about what information you have. People always think in terms of money, but information is very important. Understanding markets is very important and understanding the non-market environment, scientific evidence and the use of evidence is very critical. Finally, we need to know what assets you have. It's important to have money to manage your company, but you also need to have good relations with decision makers. You have to know who has authority to control issues and you have to know who you can build your alliances with. It is very common for American technology companies who compete with each other like crazy to actually collaborate with each other when it comes to different kinds of regulation. Finally let me just close by talking about this list of tactics that you can use and that Frost & Sullivan can help you think about. What of these tactics can be used to improve your nonmarket position.
新技术不断爆发，却也频频引发社会反弹。举个真实案例，说出来大家可能觉得不可思议：谷歌地图刚刚普及的时候，我居住的加州奥克兰市，有一位女士投诉，自家窗户里的猫被地图拍了进去，声称她的猫享有隐私权。受此影响，谷歌调整政策与市场策略，对街景中出现的人和猫咪影像做模糊处理。很多工程师只看到产品本身的优势，却忽略产品带来的社会与政治层面影响。 不管是童工问题、污染问题，还是对现有制度带来的改变，都需要纳入考量。参与博弈的主体多种多样，绝不只有市场中的竞争对手和客户，还有监管机构、政府、非政府组织。针对每一个议题，企业都要找准关键参与方，读懂各方诉求，判断各方立场是统一还是对立，以此辅助制定自身战略。还要分清博弈场域的性质：是非正式的，还是正式的？ 发生在线上网络，还是实体机构？社交媒体时代，大量博弈都发生在网络空间，而非传统正式机构当中。大家总把目光放在资金上，但信息同样至关重要。 既要读懂市场，也要读懂非市场环境，科学证据、事实依据有着极高的价值。资金是企业运营的基础，但企业同样需要和决策者建立良好关系，分清谁掌握议题的决定权，找准可以结盟的合作对象。美国科技企业之间往往竞争激烈，但面对监管议题时，它们经常选择抱团协作。最后，讲一讲可供使用的实操手段，沙利文可以协助企业梳理，选择合适的手段优化自身非市场层面的处境。
How can you develop a strategy that will be successful both in the market and the non-market, because that is the only way to profitability in the current fragmenting world. So, I'm going to leave you with a few takeaways. One is that politics and thinking about stakeholders is omnipresent, particularly in a fragmenting world. Executives need to understand the difference between what is the market environment and what is the non-market environment. And finally, executives need to take an integrated, coherent and strategic approach that links both arenas. Don't simply think about the market, think about the nonmarket. And that's how you can be successful in an increasingly fragmented world. Thank you very much.
企业需要打造一套兼顾市场与非市场维度的战略，在如今这个碎片化的世界，这才是实现盈利的必由之路。给大家总结几点核心启示： 第一，政治因素与利益相关方的影响无处不在，在全球格局碎片化的大背景下尤为突出。第二，企业管理者要分清市场环境和非市场环境的区别。第三，管理者要采取一套完整、连贯的整合战略，打通市场与非市场两大领域。不能只盯着市场，也要重视非市场层面，唯有如此，企业才能在日益碎片化的世界中行稳致远。非常感谢大家！
