本报告对全球及中国空气源热泵市场进行系统性分析，涵盖行业发展历程、产品定义与分类、市场规模、竞争格局及未来发展趋势等核心内容。空气源热泵指通过压缩机提升低品位热能，加热水或空气用于供暖或热水供应的产品。根据相关国家标准，空气源热泵是以空气为热源，通过逆卡诺循环原理提取空气中的低温热量，并将其转移至被加热水或供暖系统中的产品。作为以制热为核心功能的高效清洁热力装备，空气源热泵在生产生活的各方面有着广泛的应用，覆盖户用、工商业、农业领域。
研究显示，空气源热泵作为高效电气化供热技术，在全球能源转型及碳中和目标驱动下，正加速替代传统化石能源供热方式，行业已进入加速增长阶段。2021年至2025年，全球及中国空气源热泵市场均实现稳健增长。全球空气源热泵的市场规模从2021年的人民币529.5亿元，增长到2025年的人民币738.9亿元，2021到2025年的年复合增长率为8.7%；中国空气源热泵的市场规模从2021年的人民币192.6亿元，增长到2025年的人民币298.0亿元，2021到2025年的年复合增长率为10.7%。
预计2026年至2030年，在政策支持、技术进步及应用场景持续拓展的推动下，全球及中国空气源热泵市场将保持较高增长水平。2030年，全球空气源热泵市场规模预计将达到人民币1,629.1亿元，2026到2030年的年复合增长率为17.1%；中国空气源热泵市场规模预计将达到人民币705.6亿元，2026到2030年的年复合增长率为18.8%。
从市场结构来看，行业整体呈现由分散向集中演进的趋势，综合型企业与专业品牌制造商并存，市场竞争逐步由价格导向转向以技术能力、品牌影响力及渠道网络为核心的综合竞争。技术层面，低温运行性能、高效变频技术及系统集成能力构成主要技术壁垒；应用层面，空气源热泵正由户用采暖场景向工商业供热、工业工艺用热及农业应用等多元场景持续拓展。整体而言，在“双碳”政策推进、能效标准持续提升及“光储热”一体化系统加速发展的背景下，空气源热泵行业具备显著的长期增长潜力，并逐步成为低碳能源体系中的关键基础装备。
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global and China air source heat pump market, covering key aspects including industry development history, product definition and classification, market size, competitive landscape and future development trends. Air source heat pump refers to pump products which utilizes compressors to enhance low-grade thermal energy, heating water or air for heating or hot water supply purposes. According to relevant national standards, air source heat pumps utilize air as the heat source, extract low-temperature heat from the air through the reverse Carnot cycle, and transfer to water or heating systems. As the efficient and clean thermal equipment with the core heating function, air source heat pump have widespread applications in various aspects of production and life, covering household, industrial, commercial and agricultural sectors.
Air source heat pumps, as a high-efficiency electrified heating technology, are accelerating the replacement of traditional fossil fuel-based heating systems under the global energy transition and carbon neutrality targets, with the industry entering a phase of accelerated growth. From 2021 to 2025, the global and China air source heat pump markets achieved steady growth. The market size of global air source heat pumps increased from RMB 52.95 billion in 2021 to RMB 73.89 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2021 to 2025. The market size of air source heat pumps in China increased from RMB 19.26 billion in 2021 to RMB 29.80 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 10.7% from 2021 to 2025.
Looking ahead, from 2026 to 2030, the global and Chinese air source heat pump markets are expected to sustain a relatively high growth trajectory, supported by favorable policies, technological advancements and the continuous expansion of application scenarios. In 2030, the global market size of air source heat pumps is expected to reach RMB 162.91 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% from 2026 to 2030; the market size of air source heat pumps in China is expected to reach RMB 70.56 billion, with a CAGR of 18.8% from 2026 to 2030.
From a market structure perspective, the industry is evolving from fragmentation towards greater concentration, with both integrated players and specialized-brand manufacturers coexisting. Competition is gradually shifting from price-driven dynamics to a comprehensive competition centered on technological capabilities, brand recognition and channel network strength. Key technical barriers include low-temperature operating performance, high-efficiency inverter technologies and system integration capabilities. In terms of application, air source heat pumps are expanding from residential heating to diversified scenarios, including commercial and industrial heating, industrial process heat and agricultural applications. Overall, driven by carbon reduction policies, tightening energy efficiency standards and the accelerated development of “solar-storage-heat” integrated systems, the air source heat pump industry demonstrates strong long-term growth potential and is increasingly becoming a critical component of the low-carbon energy system.
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沙利文 许先生
E-mail: esun.xu@frostchina.com
