Frost & Sullivan releases 'Outlook 2040: Global CO2 Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) Growth Opportunities'

CCUS refers to a series of technologies that can be effectively used to capture carbon dioxide from large point sources (including power plants and industrial facilities that use fossil fuels or biomass as input fuels). The process of capturing the remaining carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is known as direct air capture (DAC). After capture, the carbon dioxide is further processed by removing the water through dehydration, then compressed into a dense phase, and transported for utilization by ship or pipeline.

Carbon dioxide is emitted from various industrial sources, such as cement production, steel, petroleum and natural gas production, fossil fuel hydrogen production, natural gas processing, and thermal power generation.

Depending on the emission intensity, carbon dioxide is captured, compressed before entering the atmosphere, and then stored or utilized.

By adopting different engineering methods, up to 90% of carbon dioxide can be effectively captured from point sources.

Carbon dioxide can be stored in geological reservoirs, where the temperature and pressure used are the same as those inherent to petroleum and natural gas over millions of years.

Oil fields and gas fields are the preferred locations for storing and capturing carbon dioxide for two main reasons: first, they have the ability to sequester carbon dioxide for millions of years; second, hundreds of years of oil and gas exploration have accumulated a wealth of research experience.

Saline-alkali terrains are more widely distributed globally and have the capacity to sequester thousands of billions of tons of carbon dioxide.

Carbon dioxide can be stored in geological reservoirs, where the temperature and pressure used are the same as those inherent to petroleum and natural gas over millions of years.

Oil fields and gas fields are the preferred locations for storing and capturing carbon dioxide, mainly for two reasons: first, they have the ability to sequester carbon dioxide for millions of years; second, hundreds of years of oil and gas exploration have accumulated a wealth of research experience.

Saline-alkali terrains are more widely distributed globally and have the capacity to sequester thousands of billions of tons of carbon dioxide.

Classified by technology type, CCUS can be divided into chemical absorption, physical absorption, physical adsorption, pure oxygen combustion, calcium cycle, chemical cycle, cryogenic separation, DACCS, membrane separation, and other types: others include direct separation, dehydration and compression, Alchemy Cycle, and Clean Energy System (CES) cycles.

Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan

The 'Report' will delve into the driving forces behind the development of CCUS industries from six core perspectives: climate action goals, low-carbon hydrogen production technologies, decarbonization effects, central hubs and industrial clusters, accelerated deployment of negative emission technologies, and DACCS.

Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan

On December 12, 2015, 196 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted a legally binding international treaty on climate change to ensure that the global temperature rise does not exceed 20°C. The Paris Agreement is hailed as an important milestone in the climate change process, as it has for the first time compelled countries around the world to jointly address climate change and promote the achievement of net-zero emissions by 2050.

Hydrogen is considered the chemical twin of electricity, with the potential to decarbonize a range of industries including transportation, heavy industry, electricity, and construction. Currently, about 98% of the hydrogen produced comes from natural gas or coal, emitting 800 megatons of carbon dioxide annually. This type of hydrogen product is known as grey hydrogen. The use of CCUS in blue hydrogen production will help reduce costs by half. It is estimated that by 2050, the annual demand for low-emission hydrogen will reach 53 million tons/year (with a reduction of 6 billion tons), and blue hydrogen can serve as a low-cost/low-carbon option. However, only by producing hydrogen using near-zero emission processes, including CCUS for blue hydrogen, can long-term benefits be achieved.

To achieve the net-zero emissions target, it is essential to address emissions from all energy-intensive industries, including those that are difficult to reduce such as cement, steel, fertilizers, and chemicals. In the heavy industries that account for 20% of global emissions, alternatives to fossil fuels (such as renewable energy generated by thermal energy utilization or process electrification) are still very expensive.

By reducing the costs of capture, transportation, and storage, the long-term benefits of CCUS can be enhanced. This can be achieved through large-scale compression, dehydration, pipeline transportation, and carbon dioxide storage, thereby reducing the cost per ton of carbon dioxide. CCUS hub nodes could potentially gather, compress, dehydrate, and transport carbon dioxide from different industrial sites or industrial clusters. In addition to the operational and maintenance costs of pipelines, the capital costs of compression plants can also be reduced by reducing or sharing electricity consumption. Hub nodes can act as a central hub between carbon capture facilities and storage locations, enabling flexible compression operations and higher turnover rates compared to individual compression plants at each location.

With the net increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions from industrial, energy, and agricultural systems, low-emission technologies such as nuclear energy, hydropower, carbon capture and storage, wind energy, and solar energy will not be sufficient to achieve net-zero emissions targets. To achieve net-zero emissions targets, negative emission technologies such as BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage) and DAC (Direct Air Capture) must be adopted. Negative emission technologies involve the net removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Direct air capture facilities that capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere could potentially capture 29 to 30 million tons of carbon dioxide in the long run. DACCS is a very flexible technology with many advantages: factories can be located in the same place as the storage sites; they can be deployed in windy areas or used together with renewable electricity. However, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is very low compared to flue gas; therefore, the energy required to concentrate carbon dioxide is very high.

Although low-emission technologies will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the continuous energy demand of industries, electricity, and agriculture systems, negative emission technologies are crucial for achieving climate goals.

Bioenergy CCS captures biogenic carbon dioxide by burning biomass to produce biofuels. If this carbon dioxide is captured and stored, it is considered a net negative emission.

Unlike BECCS, the DACCS plant directly extracts carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Capturing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is very difficult because it is extremely thin and requires a high amount of energy to concentrate it.

It is estimated that the DACCS market will experience a sharp increase from $800 million in 2024 to $10.68 billion by 2040, with an annual compound growth rate of 17.6%.

By integrating industrial centers with shared carbon dioxide transportation and storage infrastructure, industrial clusters and hubs will play a key role in accelerating the adoption and deployment of CCUS projects. By massively compressing, dehydrating, transporting, and storing carbon dioxide emissions from industrial clusters, CCUS industrial clusters help reduce costs.

Hydrogen has limited current uses, but there is great potential for blue hydrogen, which is cost-effective and emits less. In heavy-duty transport vehicles where batteries are not feasible, hydrogen is expected to play a key role in replacing petroleum products. 98% of the world's hydrogen comes from coal (via gasification) and steam methane reforming (SMR). Both methods emit large amounts of carbon dioxide without using CCS, making them ideal choices for deploying CCS.

As the pressure to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 continues to grow, a large number of existing natural gas and coal-based hydrogen plants will have to retrofit carbon capture equipment. One way to address this challenge is by deploying modular solutions to save time and cost.

By 2050, the world will generate 3.4 billion tons of waste. Currently, 70% of waste is landfilled or dumped, both of which release large amounts of pollutants such as carbon dioxide and methane. There are currently more than 2,430 waste-to-energy plants operating globally, with an expected increase to 2,700 by 2027, and the capacity for urban solid waste (MSW) treatment will reach 530 million tons.

The geological sequestration of carbon dioxide utilizes the same pressure and processes that have sealed oil and natural gas underground for millions of years. As long as there is sufficient depth (depth exceeding 800 meters) and adequate porosity and permeability, sequestration sites of all sizes are suitable for injecting carbon dioxide.

The 'Report' will delve into the driving forces behind the development of CCUS industries from six core perspectives: climate action goals, low-carbon hydrogen production technologies, decarbonization effects, central hubs and industrial clusters, accelerated deployment of negative emission technologies, and DACCS.

When we achieve net-zero emissions, there will still be 2.9 Gt of carbon dioxide coming from transportation and industrial sectors. Negative emission technologies such as Bioenergy CCS and Direct Air Capture CCS, if deployed successfully, can help offset these difficult-to-abate emissions.

Negative emission technologies involve the net removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In the case of bioenergy CCS, the carbon dioxide emitted from burning biomass to produce biofuels is referred to as biogenic carbon dioxide. This carbon dioxide is considered net-zero emissions; if it is captured and stored, it is considered a negative emission.

DACCS has the potential to capture 29 to 36 gigatons of carbon dioxide, but the cost of capturing it is very high, ranging from $140 to $400 per ton, because increasing carbon dioxide concentrations requires a large amount of energy.

The high capital cost and foreseeable investment risks prompt the CCUS market to innovate its business models. CCUS, or Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUSaaS), is a comprehensive service that will cover everything an operator needs to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

In this business model, customers only need to pay for each ton of carbon dioxide, while service providers handle carbon dioxide throughout the entire value chain—from emission points to permanent sequestration.

Early CCUS projects adopted a point-to-point model. In the past, storage sites had only a single source and sink. In many cases, this model was economically unfeasible, especially for smaller sites.

By sharing industrial centers with carbon dioxide transportation and storage infrastructure, industrial clusters and hubs will play a key role in accelerating the deployment of CCUS projects.