The automotive chassis is one of the most important components of a vehicle, consisting of four parts: the transmission system, the driving system, the steering system, and the braking system. Against the backdrop of rising vehicle ownership, the aftermarket for automotive chassis is showing a more active development trend. Currently, electrification, intelligence, networking, and sharing are profoundly reshaping the automotive industry. The proportion of new energy vehicles in the global automotive industry structure is gradually increasing, especially in the Chinese market.
The development of new energy vehicles has not only driven the growth of the traditional chassis parts market but also brought about new demands for electronically controlled suspensions, steering systems, etc., leading to a gradual shift towards intelligent chassis. As the automotive electronic and electrical architecture develops from distributed to centralized, intelligent chassis, as a key carrier for achieving autonomous driving and smart cockpits, has become an important direction in the next phase of the chassis market. At the same time, strong technical and product development capabilities, extensive warehouse network layout, and a complete marketing system will become important factors for enterprises to win in the after-market of chassis.
1Analysis of the Development and Evolution of Chassis Parts
1.Electrification and intelligence will become key factors leading future development.As a key component for realizing functions such as autonomous driving, the importance of the chassis in automotive development will become increasingly prominent. The types and functions of chassis parts and their aftermarket products will also undergo significant changes, driving the transformation and upgrading of chassis parts and their aftermarket.
2. As the automotive electronic and electrical architecture develops towards centralization, the integration of market participants for various components and systems within the vehicle will further improve.Integrating with each other and collaborating in development have become important development trends in vehicle development.
3. According to the plan of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the development path of intelligent chassis will go through three stages.Phase 1Support OTA for chassis longitudinal and transverse coordinated line control;Phase 2Based on software-defined chassis, it realizes three-dimensional coordinated line control in the vertical and horizontal directions, with redundant backup for full dynamic control functions;Phase 3Meeting the conditions for highly integrated software-defined chassis, with active control, adaptability, and self-learning capabilities. Line-control technology will be the key to the development of intelligent chassis at this stage.
2Overview of the Global and Chinese Aftermarket Development for Chassis Parts
01Global Passenger Vehicle Market
1. Global Passenger Vehicle Market Size
Passenger vehicles mainly include fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles. Affected by the pandemic, the global passenger vehicle market has experienced significant fluctuations in recent years, but it has gradually recovered since 2021. Governments around the world have introduced guidance and support policies for new energy vehicles, mainstream automakers have formulated electrification roadmap measures, and the global new energy vehicle market continues to develop positively.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
2. Key Drivers of the Global Automotive Chassis Aftermarket
(1) The continuous and stable growth of global automobile ownership will lay the foundation for the continuous expansion of the chassis aftermarket scale.In 2021, the global automobile ownership exceeded 1.5 billion vehicles, with an annual compound growth rate of about 2.8% since 2015.
(2) In recent decades, the average age of vehicles in developed countries has been slowly increasing.The relatively long average vehicle age has given developed countries' automotive aftermarket a deeper user base.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
02China Passenger Car Market
Affected by the rapid growth in new energy vehicle sales, the market structure of passenger vehicles in China has changed significantly, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to increase in the future. The Chinese government is vigorously promoting the development of new energy vehicles, and future new energy vehicle sales are still expected to maintain high-speed growth.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
(1)China's automobile ownership continues to grow.In 2021, the number exceeded 300 million vehicles, and this trend is expected to continue in the future.
(2) New cars account for a significant proportion of China's automotive structure, but this proportion is gradually decreasing.The increase in the average age of vehicles will lead to more post-market maintenance needs.
(3)The rapid expansion of the online car-hailing service industry has made it possible for the Chinese automotive chassis aftermarket to develop at an accelerated pace.Ride-hailing vehicles travel significantly longer distances than ordinary private cars, resulting in a greater demand for chassis parts replacement.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
In terms of the Chinese market, the post-market scale of five categories of products, namely drive shafts, wheel hub units, constant velocity joints, suspension systems, and shock absorbers, has maintained a rapid growth momentum, with a compound annual growth rate of over 10% from 2022 to 2026.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
After 2018, the domestic IAM market began to develop in a specialized and standardized direction. The market share of IAM in China's chassis aftermarket reached about 44% in 2021. Based on IAM's unique advantages over OEMs, as well as changes in the pattern of China's automobile ownership market, it is expected that IAM's share in the chassis aftermarket will maintain stable growth and is likely to approach 60% by 2026.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
3Opportunities in the Aftermarket for Chassis Components under the Transformation of Electrification and Intelligence
01Global electric vehicle market
(1) The growth rate of new electric vehicle sales globally will drive the growth of their fleetMeanwhile, the maintenance demand in the existing market will drive the continuous expansion of the post-market scale.The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is gradually increasing.In the face of the transformation of automotive structures, automotive chassis components and their aftermarket will change over the next few years.
(2) Policy guidance and the transformation of the automotive industry will continue to drive rapid growth in the global electric vehicle market.During the forecast period, global electric vehicle sales are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 24.3%, with an estimated global penetration rate of electric vehicles reaching 20.3% by 2026.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
(3) Chassis products are an important means of the electrification transformation of the automotive industry. The increasing penetration rate of their application in electric vehicles will drive the development of the chassis market.The scale of the intelligent chassis aftermarket for electric vehicles is expected to reach 70.61 billion yuan by 2026.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
02Chinese market
(1) The production and sales volume of electric vehicles in China, as well as their penetration rate, are growing rapidly.Affected by urban license plate and administrative restrictions, as well as the promotion of new energy vehicle subsidy policies, China's electric passenger vehicles have started a burst of growth since 2019. In 2022, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 27.5% in the Chinese market. In the past two years, with the reduction in subsidy intensity, the sales growth of electric passenger vehicles has slowed down. However, stimulated by a new round of preferential policies, especially the extension of subsidy periods and encouragement of foreign-funded enterprises to enter the market, China's electric passenger vehicles are expected to maintain a growth trend, and the penetration rate is projected to climb to 39.8% by 2026.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
(2) The significant growth rate of new energy vehicle ownership in China will provide impetus for the growth of the after-market chassis sector.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
(3) The trend towards electrification is deepening, and the aftermarket for intelligent electric vehicle chassis in China has a promising future.It is expected that the relevant market size will increase from 3.36 billion yuan in 2022 to 16.63 billion yuan in 2026.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
(4) Autonomous vehicles are developing rapidly, driving the intelligent transformation and upgrading of chassis systems.Intelligent chassis products are an important approach to achieving autonomous driving, and their application scale in autonomous vehicles will gradually increase with the rise in autonomous driving sales. With a significant increase in the penetration rate of autonomous driving and the improvement of autonomous driving levels, there will be a greater demand for faster response speed and execution precision at the execution layer, further driving up the demand for intelligent chassis.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
4Global and Chinese intelligent chassis parts aftermarket growth prospects
(1) The category of parts for the chassis aftermarket has increased.Due to electric vehicles being powered by electricity, there have been significant changes in the transmission system and braking system, which will correspondingly increase the number of single-category SKUs in the aftermarket for chassis parts. Similarly, the development of intelligence has also increased the variety of component products.
(2) The complexity of aftermarket chassis products has increased.The electric and intelligent-based steer-by-wire chassis places higher demands on the functionality of its components. The structure and form of chassis parts products will undergo significant changes. Consequently, aftermarket chassis parts will possess higher technical attributes.
(3) The value per vehicle of parts in the after-market chassis segment has increased.Compared with traditional chassis components, intelligent chassis component products offer richer functionality and more complex development, driving a significant increase in the value of individual bicycles. As the value of components per bicycle rises, the aftermarket for chassis will possess higher value attributes, and manufacturers' profit margins are expected to expand.
China's new energy vehicle ownership and autonomous driving penetration rates are rapidly increasing, and they will continue to maintain a good growth trend in the future, driving the market scale of intelligent chassis aftermarket to rise at an accelerated pace.Benefiting from factors such as the increase in automobile ownership and changes in vehicle structure, coupled with the continuous deepening of trends towards electrification and intelligence, the intelligent chassis aftermarket in China has good development prospects. Especially the significant increase in the ownership of new energy vehicles will bring strong impetus to the intelligent chassis aftermarket in China. It is estimated that the relevant market scale will increase from 3.85 billion yuan in 2022 to 17.63 billion yuan in 2026, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 46.3%.
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
Three Key Success Factors for the Intelligent Development of the Backend
(1) Strong product development capabilities.In the process of intelligent upgrading of chassis components, product development capabilities will be the primary condition determining the future prospects of a company's development. Intelligent chassis component products have a complex structure and richer functions. Only by possessing strong product development capabilities can companies continuously meet market demands.
(2) In-depth product coverage.With the deepening of automotive intelligence, the differences between different brands are gradually increasing. The aftermarket parts for intelligent chassis products are becoming more diverse, posing higher requirements for the product compatibility capabilities of component manufacturers. The coverage of products will directly determine the market space for manufacturers.
