Guohong Hydrogen Energy Technology (Jiaxing) Co., Ltd. (Stock Code:9663.HK) on2023year12month5The company successfully listed on the main board of the Hong Kong capital market. It is a leading enterprise in the hydrogen fuel cell industry market in China, focusing on research, development, production, and sales of hydrogen fuel cell stacks and systems. It has also achieved self-reliance in product research and development, localization of core raw materials and production equipment, and high-quality large-scale manufacturing, continuously leading the development of China's hydrogen fuel cell industry. Frost & SullivanFrost & Sullivan,Frost & Sullivan, hereinafter referred to as 'Frost & Sullivan', provides exclusive industry advisory services for the listing of Guohong Hydrogen Energy Technology (Jiaxing) Co., Ltd. We hereby extend our warmest congratulations on its successful listing.
Guohong Hydrogen Energy Technology (Jiaxing) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as 'Guohong Hydrogen Energy') was established on2023year12month5The company plans to go public on the 1st of July79,520,000shares, of which,71,568,000The shares are being issued internationally.7,952,000The shares are issued in Hong Kong at HK$2.00 per share. The issue price per share is19.66HK$, with the net amount of raised funds being approximately14.56HK$10 billion.
During the Hong Kong listing process, Frost & Sullivan mainly undertook the following tasks: helping the issuer accurately and objectively understand its positioning in the target market, using objective market data to discover, support, and highlight the issuer's competitive advantages, assisting the issuer, investment banks, and other intermediaries in completing the relevant parts of the prospectus (such as overview, competitive advantages and strategy, industry overview, business, and other important chapters), helping the issuer communicate with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and investors, assisting investors in quickly understanding the market ecosystem and competitive landscape, and assisting the issuer in completing feedback on various industry-related issues from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Investment highlights
The company is a leading technology-based hydrogen fuel cell company focusing on the research, development, production, and sales of hydrogen fuel cell stacks and hydrogen fuel cell systems;
The company is committed to creating a clean and sustainable world, leading hydrogen energy, and co-creating the future;
The company has successfully achieved self-reliance in product research and development, localization of core raw materials and production equipment, and high-quality large-scale manufacturing;
The company has led or participated in a series of national, provincial, and municipal research projects, integrating the upstream and downstream industrial chains of the hydrogen fuel cell industry. It has become a leading comprehensive enterprise in hydrogen fuel cells, leading a new transformation in the hydrogen energy industry.
According to a report by Frost & Sullivan:
2017Year-end2022In [year], Guohong Hydrogen Energy ranked first in China's hydrogen fuel cell stack shipments for six consecutive years;
2022In [year], Guohong Hydrogen Energy ranked first in both the sales value of hydrogen fuel cell stacks and the sales value of hydrogen fuel cell systems in China.
Overview of the China Hydrogen Fuel Cell Battery Pack Market
2018Year to2022In [year], thanks to the rapid growth in sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China, the market scale of hydrogen fuel cell stacks (by shipment volume) in China grew from74.2Megawatts soar716.6megawatts, compound annual growth rate76.3%During the same period, the market scale of hydrogen fuel cell stacks (by shipment value) in China was RMB579.1RMB 1 million increased to RMB1,433.1One million yuan.
since2021Since the beginning of this year, with the establishment of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters, China's hydrogen fuel cell industry has entered a period of rapid growth. It is expected that the demand for hydrogen fuel cells in this industry will continue to grow, which will drive an increase in shipments of hydrogen fuel cell stacks.
In addition, driven by continuous technological breakthroughs in energy density and operating life, as well as the diversification of hydrogen fuel cell application scenarios, it is expected that the shipment volume of hydrogen fuel cell stacks in China will continue to grow rapidly, from2023year1,966.3Megawatts increased2027year30,342.1MW, with a compound annual growth rate of about98.2%Yu2030Before the Spring Festival, shipments of hydrogen fuel cell stacks in China will surge100,229.8megawatt, itself2028Year-end2030The compound annual growth rate for the year is about46.5%Based on shipment value, the market scale of hydrogen fuel cell stacks in China is expected to grow from2023Renminbi in [year]3,401.6Rise from one million to2027Renminbi in [year]24,880.5One million yuan and2030Renminbi in [year]66,151.7One million yuan.
Source: Frost & Sullivan report
Overview of the China Hydrogen Fuel Cell System Market
With the support of national policies, hydrogen fuel cell technology has made significant progress.2018Year-end2022In [year], the market scale of China's hydrogen fuel cell systems in terms of sales was from58.7Megawatts surge602.8megawatts, compound annual growth rate79.0%Meanwhile, the market scale of China's hydrogen fuel cell systems in terms of sales value is from RMB721.6One million yuan increased to RMB2,893.4One million yuan.
In the near future, driven by the rapid development of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry and other emerging application scenarios, the market scale of hydrogen fuel cell systems in China is expected to reach2027Will reach in25,027.0megawatt, and2030Will reach in83,367.2megawatt, itself2023Year-end2027The compound annual growth rate for the year is expected to be99.2%, since2028Year-end2030The compound annual growth rate for the year is expected to be46.3%In terms of sales value, the market size of hydrogen fuel cell systems in China is expected to grow from2023Renminbi in [year]6,199.5Rise from one million to2027Renminbi in [year]45,048.6One million yuan, and2030Renminbi in [year]116,714.1One million yuan.
Source: Frost & Sullivan report
Note: To ensure that hydrogen fuel cell devices operate smoothly at rated power, industry practice is to install hydrogen fuel cell stacks with a total power higher than the power of the hydrogen fuel cell system. Therefore, there is a gap between the shipment volume of hydrogen fuel cell stacks and the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell systems.
The application of hydrogen fuel cells in China
The applications of hydrogen fuel cells mainly include transportation and stationary applications. The end-users of hydrogen fuel cell stacks and systems typically include bus companies, logistics and transport companies, ports, factories, mines, railway companies, etc.
To date, driven by the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, transportation applications have almost accounted for the entire share of the hydrogen fuel cell market. Due to the immaturity of the market, fixed hydrogen fuel cell applications have not been commercially operated in China in recent years. As hydrogen energy receives increasing attention from governments and markets, fixed power supply demonstration projects based on hydrogen fuel cell technology are expected to be carried out in the coming years.
2027In [year], the market scale of hydrogen fuel cell system transportation applications and stationary applications in China will increase to approximately22,967.8megawatts and2,059.2megawatt, itself2023The compound annual growth rates for the years are97.1%and134.4%reach2030In [year], the market scale of hydrogen fuel cell system transportation and stationary applications in China, measured by sales volume, will further increase to70,016.2megawatts and13,351.0MW, accounting for the respective proportion of the overall market size84.0%and16.0%.
Source: Frost & Sullivan report
Overview of China's Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Market
2018Year-end2022In [year], China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry was in its early stages of development, with sales from2018year1.5Thousands grew to2022year3.4Thousand units, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately22.1%The government is actively promoting the establishment of hydrogen energy demonstration city clusters and will provide subsidies based on the performance of different projects. As a result, more and more cities and local governments have proposed measures and goals to promote the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and related core technologies.
Driven by strong policy support, continuous breakthroughs in core technologies, ongoing improvement of infrastructure such as hydrogen stations, and further reduction in production costs, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will enter a stage of rapid growth similar to that of electric vehicles. It is expected that the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will experience a sharp increase.2023The year's promise11.6Thousands increased to2027The year's promise150.4Thousand units, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately90.0%, and2030The number further increased to about412.4A thousand,2028Year-end2030The compound annual growth rate for the year is about38.5%.
Source: Frost & Sullivan report
Overview of the China Hydrogen and Hydrogen Refueling Station Market
China's hydrogen production has been steadily increasing in recent years.2022The annual hydrogen production is about35.2One million tons, becoming the world's largest hydrogen producer. "Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021 - 2035Proposed in the (2018)2025The annual renewable energy hydrogen production reached10Ten thousand2010,000 tons/The target for the year will become an important part of new hydrogen energy consumption, achieving carbon dioxide emission reductions1one million to2one million tons/In the future, with technological upgrades, improved energy utilization rates, and increased penetration of clean energy, China's hydrogen energy structure will become more environmentally friendly.
Source: Frost & Sullivan report
The number of hydrogen refueling stations in China is85.8%The compound annual growth rate is2018year26The number of seats quickly increased2022year310Seats. With the active layout of leading enterprises and government support, it further grew,2025year,2030year2050In [a certain year], the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China is expected to exceed1,000seat,3,000seat and10,000seat.
Source: Frost & Sullivan report
Competitive landscape of hydrogen fuel cell stacks and systems in China
As of2022In [year], based on shipments, the market scale of hydrogen fuel cell stacks in China was approximately716.6MW, among which the top five companies account for approximately the total market size84.9%. in2022In [year], the shipment volume of hydrogen fuel cell stacks of Guohong Hydrogen Energy was175.2megawatt, possession24.4%It holds the largest market share in the industry. In the same year, it also ranked first in China's hydrogen fuel cell stack market by shipment value.
Source: Frost & Sullivan report
Note: Shipments are a recognized measurement standard in the hydrogen fuel cell industry, used to quantify market size and sales performance. The shipments of hydrogen fuel cell stacks include:1)Hydrogen fuel cell stacks sold as standalone products; and2)Hydrogen fuel cell stacks sold after being installed into hydrogen fuel cell systems. Frost & Sullivan uses both primary research and secondary research methods when determining the shipments and value of shipments of hydrogen fuel cell stacks.
As of2022In [year], based on sales volume, the market scale of hydrogen fuel cell systems in China was approximately602.8Megawatts. As a core component of hydrogen fuel cell systems, hydrogen fuel cell stacks have a significant impact on the key performance of these systems. Therefore, in the hydrogen fuel cell system industry, companies that can independently develop and produce stacks are expected to have stronger competitiveness in the future.
As of2022In [year], the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell systems of Guohong Hydrogen Energy was approximately131.3MW, ranking second in the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell systems, with a market share of21.8%as of2022In [year], ranked first in the Chinese hydrogen fuel cell system market by sales value, Guohong Hydrogen Energy
Source: Frost & Sullivan report
China Hydrogen Fuel Cell Stack and System Market
Analysis of driving factors and development trends
· R&D investment in hydrogen fuel cells continues to increase, driving technological breakthroughs and industrial development.
The hydrogen fuel cell stack is the core component of a hydrogen fuel cell system, and its technical level directly affects the overall performance of the battery system, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and other hydrogen fuel cell equipment. In recent years, China's hydrogen fuel cell stack technology has developed rapidly, with significant improvements in performance that are close to international leading levels. Some leading domestic brands have achieved breakthroughs in key technologies and processes, mastered core technologies, and owned intellectual property rights, promoting the localization of more hydrogen fuel cell-related components. The gap between China's independently developed hydrogen fuel cell stacks and foreign advanced products in terms of reliability, durability, safety, and cost is continuously narrowing. Domestic companies have reduced their dependence on foreign technology and parts by achieving technological progress, increasing R&D investment, and acquiring intellectual property rights.
Breakthroughs have been made in major areas such as membrane electrodes and bipolar plates. For example, in the field of bipolar plates, after years of exploration, graphite bipolar plates have been localized domestically, and flexible molded graphite bipolar plate technology has reached international leading levels. For instance, Guohong Hydrogen Energy has achieved mass production of low-cost flexible molded graphite bipolar plates. By rapidly forming and producing highly corrosion-resistant flexible molded graphite bipolar plates from low-cost flexible expanded graphite sheets, the brittleness of hard graphite bipolar plates can be reduced, while greatly lowering Guohong Hydrogen Energy's manufacturing costs. Metal bipolar plates have achieved small-scale production, but their durability and reliability still require further research breakthroughs, which are crucial for the application of hydrogen fuel cell stacks in passenger vehicles and more diverse scenarios.
In addition, in the past few years, key performance indicators of domestic leading brand hydrogen fuel cell products such as rated power, power density, cold start temperature, and service life have been continuously upgraded. For example, HONGXIN, developed and mass-produced by Guohong Hydrogen Energy,GIIIhas204Rated power of kilowatts and4.5kilowatt/The power density has increased, reaching the forefront of the industry.BOP(The Power Plant Auxiliary Facilities) division has also entered a small-scale self-production phase for domestic low-power, high-speed, oil-free air compressors. With the improvement in the physical properties of key materials, the thermal stability, mechanical stability, and electrochemical stability of each component will be significantly enhanced, further promoting the stability and comprehensive lifespan of hydrogen fuel cell systems.
Against the backdrop of the Chinese government's strong promotion of the transformation of scientific and technological achievements and encouragement of technology introduction, domestic companies producing hydrogen fuel cell stacks and systems will continue to increase investment in research and development. With the growing demand for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and other hydrogen fuel cell equipment, technological improvements and mass production capabilities can further reduce the cost of hydrogen fuel cell stacks and systems.
· The sharp surge in demand for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has promoted the development of hydrogen fuel cell stacks and systems
As the government introduces policies to address climate change and environmental pollution, people's awareness of environmental protection is also increasing. More and more people are beginning to focus on 'low-carbon living' and 'green travel'. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles only require hydrogen refueling during use, making the entire driving process pollution-free and meeting environmental protection requirements. At the same time, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will complement electric vehicles due to their advantages in zero emissions, high payload, long driving range, and rapid fuel replenishment.
It is expected that the ownership and sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will be2027will reach320.9Thousands150.4Thousands, and are expected to2030will reach1,091.5Thousands412.4Thousands. Expectations2023Year-end2027during the year2028Year-end2030The compound annual growth rates of China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales during the year will be90.0%and38.5%This will inevitably promote the rise in demand for hydrogen fuel cell stacks and systems, as well as the continuous improvement of the industrial chain.
· Strong policy support
To promote the development of hydrogen fuel cells, China has formulated many industrial policies, emphasizing industry collaboration and increasing support for research and development.2020year4The 'Notice on Improving the Fiscal Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles' issued by four ministries including the Ministry of Finance in November proposed to adjust the current purchase subsidies for fuel cell vehicles. Cities or regions with a foundation, enthusiasm, and distinctive features will be selected as demonstration urban clusters for the technology research and development and industrial application of key components. The central government will adopt an 'reward instead of subsidy' policy to reward the demonstration urban clusters. The policy plan aims to establish a hydrogen and fuel cell vehicle industry chain within about four years, achieve breakthroughs in core technologies in key areas, and form a well-structured and coordinated development situation. This will further promote the breakthroughs in core technologies in key areas by enterprises in the hydrogen industry chain, ensuring the sustainable development of the industry.
In addition, hydrogen energy, as a frontier technology and area of industry transformation, was mentioned for the first time in the '14th Five-Year Plan'. The plan states that during the '14th Five-Year Plan' period, an incubation and acceleration plan for the hydrogen energy industry should be organized and implemented.2022year3The Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021 - 2035In the 'Annual Report' (2023), it is clearly stated that continuous improvement in the reliability, stability, and durability of fuel cells is required. Support for the development of new fuel cell technologies is also emphasized, with efforts focused on advancing the research, development, manufacturing, and supply of core components and key equipment. Strengthening multi-path exploration, cross-integration, and disruptive technology supply in frontier technologies is one of the core aspects of the national hydrogen energy strategy. As the core area of the hydrogen fuel cell industry chain, hydrogen fuel cell stacks and systems are bound to see greater development supported by comprehensive, multi-level, and multi-field policy dividends.
· Broader application scenarios
With continuous technological breakthroughs, the application scenarios of hydrogen fuel cells will become more extensive and integrate with more different industries. Currently, hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in China have entered the initial stage of industrial development. Thanks to national policy support, the hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicle industry will maintain a rapid development trend. In the commercial vehicle sector, forklifts, buses, light and medium-duty trucks have always been at the forefront of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicle applications. With the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cells technology, cost reduction, and the improvement of infrastructure, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will expand to more scenarios such as port terminals, mines, and specific routes.
With the increasing awareness of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and the continuous decline in their prices, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will gradually achieve commercialization and be promoted in the passenger car sector. The national hydrogen energy plan also clearly states that in the future, the development of hydrogen energy in the transportation sector will focus on promoting the application of hydrogen fuel cells in medium and heavy-duty vehicles, orderly expanding the use of hydrogen fuel cells to new energy passenger and freight vehicles, gradually establishing a complementary development model between hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles and battery pure electric vehicles, and actively exploring the application of hydrogen fuel cells in fields such as ships and aircraft.
In addition to transportation applications, the fixed application sector of hydrogen fuel cells is expected to increase in the future. In stationary power generation scenarios, hydrogen fuel cells will be used in more and more stationary power stations, backup power sources, and emergency power stations. Moreover, due to its significant advantages, hydrogen energy storage will play an even more important role in fixed applications and become one of the main components of China's new power system. Driven by the growing demand for application scenarios, hydrogen fuel cell system manufacturers tend to customize products and services to meet customer needs.
View the prospectus
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