Frost & Sullivan (hereinafter referred to as "Frost & Sullivan") has released the "White Paper on the Development of Social Platforms in Emerging Markets 2020". Based on research and analysis through first-hand interviews and desk research conducted by Frost & Sullivan, it deeply explores the development trends and market opportunities of social media platforms in emerging markets.
The demand from young populations in emerging markets is driving rapid global social networking market growth and a concurrent shift to live video and voice applications. These findings come from new research released by Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company.
Frost & Sullivan's report, titled Social Networking in Emerging Markets, finds that the global live social market - which refers to social networking applications focusing on live video and voice interaction - is expected to show a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.6% to more than triple in size from $197 billion in 2019 to $641 billion in 2024. During the same period, the live social revenue from emerging markets is forecasted to show a significantly higher CAGR of 41.7% to rise from $15 billion in 2019 to $86 billion in 2024.
Emerging markets drive substantial live social market growth
Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, India, Pakistan, the Middle East, and Africa are driving an increasingly large proportion of this live social market growth. Young populations, rapid economic growth, and advanced mobile internet technology rollout mean that growth in these markets is on track to significantly outpace the global average.
“We expected to find strong social networking market growth in emerging markets, but were surprised to see how quickly the contribution of these markets is increasing, especially in the live social space,” said Gabriel Lu, Partner at Frost & Sullivan. “The proportion of global live social revenue arising from emerging markets is forecasted to grow from 7.6% in 2019 to 13.4% in 2024 as these markets account for a higher portion of live social market growth. Apps such as Uplive and Bigo are increasingly delivering products tailored to meet the needs of young users in emerging markets.”
While the global median age was 30.9 years in 2019, Malaysia's was 30.3 years, Indonesia's was 29.7 years, India's was 28.4 years, and the Philippines' was just 25.7 years. Large population bases and high proportions of younger generations in emerging markets jointly point to huge potential user bases for social networking. The combined social networking user base in emerging markets is approximately 16 billion, which is about 60% larger than the user base in developed economies (the US and Western Europe).
This young population profile combined with still spotty mobile internet coverage in many of these markets represents significant social media market growth potential, especially when compared to relatively mature developed markets. For example, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa alone account for approximately 67% of the world's total population without access to mobile broadband internet connections.
Live social dating market grows as culture and technology evolve
Rapid live social market growth is not only felt in the live video and voice segments, but is also driving explosive growth in the online dating market. The online dating market was worth $54 billion globally in 2019 and is forecasted to show a CAGR of 23.8% to reach $157 billion by 2024.
The growth of live social dating in emerging markets is on track to far exceed that of developed markets. Emerging markets accounted for just 11.1% of global online dating revenue in 2019, but above-average growth means that they should account for 18.2% of revenue by 2024.
Gabriel explained, “Users in emerging markets generally prefer face-to-face communication to traditional text messaging, which still dominates most developed market dating apps. For example, cultural and religious customs in some emerging markets might frown upon in-person dating, leading young people to engage in relationships that are primarily or entirely carried out via video and voice chat.”
Major live social dating segment players in these markets include: Tinder, Badoo, Happn, Lamour, and Azar.
Strong demand drivers point to continued growth in emerging markets
As young users increasingly demand video- or voice-based live social networking, social and economic factors suggest that emerging markets will continue to be the key drivers of global social networking market growth. These factors include: young populations; rapid economic growth; increasing internet penetration; mobile internet technology upgrades; and growing willingness to pay for online services.
