Frost & Sullivan insights
7The extreme high temperatures since last month have particularly exacerbated the power supply situation in Sichuan, a major hydropower province. According to the overall plan, all industrial power users (including key guaranteed enterprises on the whitelist) in Sichuan's grid orderly power consumption plan have implemented full production shutdowns (except for security loads), starting from8month15day0time-20day24At the same time, strive to "put power into the hands of the people".
As a major hydropower province, how should Sichuan face up to the current power shortage? Looking ahead, which areas should be actively addressed for proactive responses? Frost & SullivanFrost & Sullivan,Xu Biao, Executive Director of Greater China at Frost & Sullivan (hereinafter referred to as 'Frost & Sullivan'), was interviewed by Observer Network to discuss the power shortage issues faced in some local areas of our country this summer and solutions. .
Observer Network
QHow should the power supply gap in Sichuan caused by extreme weather and peak load be urgently compensated for?
Xu Biao
Executive Director, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
Since volatility is the norm, both the entire power grid system and local governments and energy-related departments are quite experienced in dealing with this situation. In terms of the power supply gap issue in Sichuan, this phenomenon last year11month-12The signs of a new year are already emerging. Due to the high proportion of hydropower, Sichuan experiences certain power supply shortages every winter.
Regarding the situation this summer, at present, various departments of the Sichuan Provincial Government, including the State Grid's power companies in Sichuan, have actively responded through policy adjustments and utilization of market mechanisms.
Specifically,On the demand side, with the core principle of prioritizing the guarantee of residential electricity supply, some market mechanisms are used for regulation: For example, the State Grid has introduced policies that provide certain fee refunds to users who actively participate in and effectively execute peak shaving load responses. At the same time, some policies require these high-energy-consuming industries to cease production in an orderly manner to ensure electricity is available for the people. Many large enterprises have responded to these policies by arranging short-term production suspensions. On the residential side, there is also a promotion of energy conservation, such as raising air conditioner temperatures, turning off landscape lighting, etc., to moderately reduce power load.
On the supply side, work is carried out around these aspects:
Firstly, from the perspective of the province itself, Sichuan Province requires all localities to do a good job in water storage and supply, optimizing the reservoir dispatching of various river basins to ensure hydropower generation and consolidate the foundation of Sichuan Province.
In addition to hydropower, Sichuan has also increased the coal inventory across the province to ensure power supply. In Sichuan's current power generation structure, there is usually about15%It is thermal power, and its proportion may increase in the next few months20%, providing some supplements from the perspective of thermal power energy.
The national power grid system has also carried out some power resource dispatching from outside the province, utilizing the maximum transmission capacity for cross-regional resource allocation. Of course, this work is quite complex and requires a lot of approval and coordination.
In addition to the supply and demand sides, the current high-temperature weather also greatly affects the safe operation of power equipment. State Grid Sichuan's various levels have strengthened maintenance and support work to ensure the safe operation of equipment under extreme weather conditions.
Overall, the effects of this series of measures will gradually become apparent. According to current meteorological forecasts, extreme high temperatures may continue for about another week, but the specific situation still requires further observation.
QIf high-temperature weather becomes the norm in the future, many people will worry about the stability of energy supply. We just discussed flexible power supply, which brings to mind the popular concept of 'virtual power plants' that has been on the agenda for some time. Has this concept played a role this time?
Xu Biao
Executive Director, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
Virtual power plants are actually a relatively forward-looking concept. It is a field within the broader direction of 'building an intelligent grid' that we are currently discussing. Ultimately, virtual power plants aim to improve the efficiency and safety of grid operation through information aggregation and the networking of the entire power system network.
At present, virtual power plants are still in their early stages, and their role has not been particularly evident at this stage. It will take some time to scale up the integration of resources.
QSo, in the medium to long term, how do we ensure the resilience and redundancy of our power grid? Can we discuss this in conjunction with the respective roles of photovoltaic, wind power, thermal power, and nuclear power generation within the power grid?
Xu Biao
Executive Director, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
Grid resilience refers to the entire power grid system's ability to respond to extreme events, especially natural disasters or sudden incidents that threaten the operation of the entire grid—how it can restore the safe operation of the entire grid in a short period.
Enhancing grid resilience is actually a very complex systematic project. It requires efforts in multiple aspects, whether it's cross-regional grid coordination, the construction of the entire backbone grid, strengthening power generation-side coordination, optimizing grid-side coordination, or what has been frequently mentioned recently - energy storage. Only by developing in multiple directions can we continuously improve the resilience of the entire grid.
You just mentioned the concept of 'redundancy'. Globally, China's power system has a relatively large margin for overall equipment redundancy. In comparison, the stability and security of our power system are very leading in the world—of course, redundancy also needs to balance economic considerations.
In the medium to long term, we need to strengthen the resilience and security of the entire power grid, including the issue of different power sources that you just mentioned. At present, photovoltaics and wind power are the most important and fastest-growing sectors in achieving the dual carbon path.
Judging from last year's situation, wind power generation should account for the national8%Left and right, photovoltaics4%Overall, their green environmental protection advantages are unquestionable; compared to wind power, photovoltaics offer greater flexibility in deployment. The construction cycle of wind and solar power is much faster than that of large-scale thermal and nuclear power plants, which is where they have an advantage.
Of course, they are also limited by certain factors, such as the impact of regional natural resources. Photovoltaics correspond to sunlight environments, while wind power corresponds to wind energy resources, which can have a significant impact on them; these characteristics also lead to unstable supply. Currently, there is ongoing discussion about the impact of new energy on the power grid, which is another limitation.
However, overall, whether in terms of installed capacity or the growth rate as a whole, China leads the world in photovoltaics and wind power. At the same time, looking at the entire industrial chain, such as the production of photovoltaic modules and silicon wafers, as well as wind turbine manufacturing, China's system is very complete and robust.
The future development of the wind power and photovoltaic industries is beyond doubt and will also be one of the most important links in our new energy sector.
QYou just mentioned the manufacturing process of photovoltaics. Many of the enterprises affected by the power outage in Sichuan this time are part of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain. Much silicon material is produced in Sichuan, which consumes a lot of electricity. The relatively cheap electricity price in Sichuan has attracted industries to gather here. In fact, Xinjiang also has similar characteristics.
Xu Biao
Executive Director, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
Yes, this is the impact of electricity costs on industries, and it is also why high-energy-consuming enterprises in fields such as photovoltaics tend to settle in places with abundant new energy generation and relatively cheaper electricity prices in the northwest and southwest regions. In connection with the phenomenon of 'wind and solar curtailment,' in fact, many power resources are consumed locally, which is more efficient than dispatching them over long distances using ultra-high voltage transmission.
Including current data centers, supercomputing centers, and so on, this new type of digital infrastructure also reveals its impact on the power grid system. This year2In the month, the country's 'East Data West Computing' project was officially launched on a full scale. From the overall planning, we can see that many hubs are located in the northwest regions of Ningxia and Gansu.
These developments are promoting the integration of the entire power grid, energy infrastructure, and digital infrastructure. Especially in conjunction with our country's regional-based system planning, through new energy generation, energy storage, and large-scale power supply methods, as well as the construction of data centers and supercomputing centers, it is possible to better promote local consumption of renewable energy. From the perspective of overall grid balance, this is actually quite beneficial.
QDoes 'grid balance' refer to loads such as data centers that are more resilient?
Xu Biao
Executive Director, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
Data centers and supercomputing centers generally require the configuration of backup power supplies, which are essentially a type of energy storage device. With the provision of energy storage, it can effectively offset fluctuations in load and power generation from new energy sources, ensuring a relatively smooth and stable power supply. Data centers cannot be powered off; in terms of energy storage, uninterruptible power supplies (UPS)Uninterruptible power supply,UPS) is a must-have.
QSpeaking of energy storage, could you briefly describe different types of energy storage?
Xu Biao
Executive Director, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
Considering the current situation and economy in Sichuan, hydropower generation is the most economical. Although there are many hydropower stations in Sichuan, most of them are run-of-river stations that do not rely on reservoir regulation. They mainly depend on rivers.
According to the latest plan, Sichuan Province is currently planning and constructing large-scale pumped storage power stations during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. This is conducive to providing greater flexibility in response to extreme situations, but the related investment is very substantial.
The capacity of pumped storage can be larger, and the principle is quite simple. When there is surplus electricity, water is pumped to high elevations to store energy, which can then be released to generate electricity when needed. There are certain processes involved in this process.30%-40%energy loss.
Currently, the capital market is more likely to discuss electrochemical energy storage, which relies on the rapidly developing lithium battery industry. Overall, it is driven by the development of electric vehicles.
Now many people have started discussing the issue of future battery gradient utilization, with energy storage being a relatively good application scenario. When automotive power batteries degrade and may no longer be suitable for use as power sources, they will be phased out for gradient utilization.
From a market perspective, large-scale pumped storage projects are mainly targeted at the domestic market; the commercialization of electrochemical energy storage products has reached a high level. Globally, the lithium battery industry chain is basically in China, with a significant export volume overseas. There are many related concepts in the market that attract attention.
It is worth mentioning household new energy, which is a scenario that is still relatively rare in China but quite common in Europe and America, especially photovoltaics.+domestic+There are many manufacturers in China producing energy storage products, and their main market is overseas.
QStarting from the impacts brought about by this extreme heatwave, and considering the current situation of our power grid construction. Looking ahead, what issues need our attention?
Xu Biao
Executive Director, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
In summary, the power shortage caused by extreme high temperatures in Sichuan this time will definitely be gradually resolved—just as the more severe situations such as power rationing and production suspensions that occurred in the south last year were later resolved.
The entire event has brought everyone back to focusing on the direction of grid intelligence. In terms of the digital upgrade of the power grid itself, it covers many aspects, such as intelligent perception and allocation from the generation side to the consumption side, which also requires participation from all sectors of the industrial chain.
In addition to these technical changes, there is another equally important aspect related to the mechanism of our power operation. Whether it is market-based trading or power distribution, there is room for improvement.
Sichuan used to be a hydropower base, with many hydropower resources undertaking the important strategic task of transporting electricity from the west to the east—indeed, in terms of power generation within the province, supplying the internal demand shouldOKHowever, power generation is planned, and electricity that should have been sent to other provinces according to the plan cannot be stopped just because there is a shortage within the province.
Is it possible that this plan will further establish a more flexible allocation mechanism in the future, allowing for more real-time adjustments to power generation plans? These are longer-term development goals.
*This article is reprinted from Observer Network.,Interview with Zhou Yuanfang, Editor Zhou Yi,Original title: Xu Biao: Is the power shortage in China's major hydropower province being compensated for by thermal power??">
