Dr. Wang Xin, Global Partner and Chairman of Frost & Sullivan Greater China Region
At the opening ceremony and plenary session of the conference, Dr. Wang Xin, Global Partner at Frost & Sullivan and Chairman of the Greater China Region, released 'White Paper on the Development Trends of China's Industries for the Next 50 Years (Fourth Edition)' (hereinafter referred to as the 'White Paper'). The White Paper was co-authored by Frost & Sullivan and the LeadLeo Research Institute and has been released for the fourth consecutive year. It interprets the development trends and opportunities of China's five core industries for the next 50 years from an industry perspective.
The world is undergoing profound changes at an accelerated pace due to the century-long transformations. Interwoven with macro issues such as global economy, world pattern, and technological development, the globe is experiencing unprecedented profound changes. From global economic fluctuations to the reshaping of the world pattern, and then to the accelerating advancement of the technological revolution, these factors collectively shape the future direction of human society. As the world's second-largest economy and a responsible major country, China adheres to the spirit of 'working together for a shared future'. It firmly shares with the world the broad opportunities and development dividends brought about by Chinese-style modernization and high-quality development. It injects an inexhaustible driving force into global development and revitalization through tangible cooperation achievements, and pools tremendous strength for the modernization of countries around the world that pursue peaceful development, mutually beneficial cooperation, and common prosperity. The white paper will focus on the development direction of China's core industries in the future. Starting from five major industries including artificial intelligence, intelligent manufacturing, healthcare, mass consumption, and carbon neutrality, it will explore the core development direction of China's future industries.
01
The large model is the 'brain', the intelligent agent is the 'nerve', and embodied intelligence is the 'senses and limbs'. An intelligent form capable of autonomously perceiving, thinking, and transforming the physical world is quietly emerging. This heralds a profound reshaping of social structures. When intelligence becomes a core production factor as ubiquitous and demand-driven as electricity, the boundaries of human civilization will be infinitely expanded.
China has laid a solid foundation for innovation with its global leadership in AI research and patents. Its massive internet user base and complete industrial ecosystem provide an unparalleled market and development space for AI applications. Driven by national strategies, China has become the core force driving global artificial intelligence development.
At the core technology level, Chinese enterprises have mastered advanced algorithms including large models and are rapidly narrowing the gap with the world's top-tier levels. Ultimately, this end-to-end capability is reflected in AI technology that has deeply empowered various industries and is being efficiently implemented in vertical and customized directions.
Looking ahead, driven by national strategies, the scale of intelligent computing power is continuously climbing at an average annual growth rate of over 75%. From the demand side, the market has shifted from pursuing general models to 'scenario supremacy', and the demand for vertical, customized AI solutions that can solve core business problems is accelerating. The core opportunities for the AI industry in the future are concentrated on three pillars: large models, intelligent agents, and embodied intelligence. The coordinated development of these three pillars will jointly give rise to a new generation of artificial intelligence that seamlessly integrates digital intelligence with physical actions, containing tremendous industrial value.
Data source: Frost & Sullivan analysis, LeadLeo research institute
02
With the continuous improvement of core technologies and industrial ecosystems, China's manufacturing industry is undergoing digital transformation and upgrading. Breakthrough progress has been made in high-end manufacturing fields such as robotics, general aviation, and deep-sea equipment. It is expected that the market sizes of these three sectors will reach trillions of yuan respectively in the future.
In 2025, China's industrial added value will reach 42.5 trillion yuan, with the scale of intelligent manufacturing equipment exceeding 3.4 trillion yuan. China will rank among the top in the world in seven major fields including new energy vehicles and photovoltaics. The market share of domestic brands of industrial robots will reach 47%, and the Manufacturing Power Index will increase by 14.6 points over four years, demonstrating a strong momentum towards moving up the value chain the high-end.
China's manufacturing industry has the advantage of large-scale clustering, ranking second globally in R&D expenses. It leads the world with 77 Lighthouse Factories and is currently promoting intelligent manufacturing transformation through the 'Three-step Strategy' of Made in China 2025. It is accelerating breakthroughs in the localization of upstream hardware, supply of midstream solutions, and diversified downstream applications in the industrial chain, laying the foundation for entering Industry 4.0.
In 2024-2025, China will intensively deploy policies for three emerging industries: robotics, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea economy. The market scale of industrial robots is expected to increase from 30.21 billion yuan in 2020 to 527.63 billion yuan in 2075. The low-altitude economy is projected to grow from 291.2 billion yuan in 2021 to 8.74 trillion yuan in 2075, while the deep-sea economy is expected to increase from 1.98 trillion yuan in 2021 to 13.4 trillion yuan in 2075.
Data source: Frost & Sullivan analysis, LeadLeo research institute
03
With breakthroughs in AI large models, multimodal image analysis, and neural engineering technology, the healthcare industry will move towards advanced applications such as personalized diagnosis and treatment, telemedicine, and digital therapies, constructing a full-cycle intelligent healthcare ecosystem of 'prevention-diagnosis-treatment-rehabilitation'.
The development potential in China's healthcare sector is enormous. On one hand, the rapid aging trend has generated a huge demand for health care, providing long-term growth momentum for the industry. On the other hand, China is accelerating the export of innovative drugs and medical devices by virtue of its complete pharmaceutical industry chain, occupying a key position in the global healthcare supply chain and continuously enhancing its international competitiveness.
Driven by both policy support and technological breakthroughs, China's AI medical imaging industry has witnessed explosive growth, accelerating the filling of gaps in primary healthcare resources and improving diagnostic efficiency. Looking ahead, with the maturity of large models and multimodal analysis technologies, AI imaging will upgrade from single auxiliary diagnosis to full-process clinical decision support, and market penetration is expected to continue to rise.
China's brain-computer interface industry has a unique 'medical rehabilitation + consumer electronics' dual-wheel drive model, showing disruptive potential in the fields of neurological disease treatment and next-generation human-computer interaction. The resonance of policy dividends, clinical necessity, and consumption upgrading has driven this track into an accelerated industrialization phase.
Data source: Frost & Sullivan analysis, LeadLeo research institute
04
In the high-level cycle phase where 'consumption innovation' drives 'industrial upgrading', the large consumer industry will continue to play its role as the 'ballast stone' and 'new engine' of the economy.
As a global hotbed for investment, China's overall investment data in 2024 remained high. From January to October, 46,893 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in China, and the number of foreign direct investment projects signed throughout the year reached 59,080, reaching a new high in five years. China's foreign trade scale has exceeded 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters and has maintained its position as the world's largest exporter for 16 consecutive years. In the current environment of weak global economic growth, China, as the world's second-largest economy, continues to play a significant role as a source of world economic momentum and a stabilizing anchor.
China's large consumer industry has entered a new ecosystem reconstructed by the interconnection of technology, featuring a reconfiguration of 'people, goods, and places'. It has fully shifted from the traditional retail model, which was 'commodity-centric', to a consumer-oriented model centered on consumers. Consequently, emerging business forms such as smart retail, unmanned retail, and instant retail are developing vigorously. Currently, China's large consumer industry is centered on policy guidance, supported by technology industries, and grounded in people's livelihood security, forming a virtuous closed loop of 'policy - technology - industry - consumption'.
Looking ahead, from the supply side, China's large consumer industry will continue to be demand-oriented, presenting a diversified supply hierarchy. First-tier cities will focus on high-end, intelligent, and personalized products; new and second-tier cities will emphasize scale, communityization, and blockbuster products; low-tier cities and counties will continue to deepen the convenience and cost-effectiveness of the consumer end. From the industrial side, domestic substitution and industrial globalization will become important development strategies for China's 'bringing in' and 'going out' over the next five decades.
Data source: Frost & Sullivan analysis, LeadLeo research institute
05
In the next five decades, China's carbon neutrality industry will focus on digital-driven transformation of non-fossil energy supply-side solutions. Technological breakthroughs such as perovskite photovoltaics and large megawatt wind power will be achieved. Energy storage will be diversified and interact with 'source-grid-load-storage', constructing a low-carbon, intelligent, diverse, and efficient energy system.
In 2025, the country has made a series of deployments around the 'dual carbon' work—actively and steadily advancing towards carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In the short term, coal remains the main source of energy consumption in China, but its proportion is declining rapidly, while the proportion of clean energy will continue to increase; in the long term, clean energy will account for more than 90% by 2070-2075.
In the next five decades, China's carbon neutrality industry will focus on digital-driven transformation of non-fossil energy supply-side solutions. Technological breakthroughs in perovskite photovoltaics, large megawatt wind power, and other technologies will be pursued. Energy storage will be diversified and interact with 'source-grid-load-storage', constructing a low-carbon, intelligent, diverse, and efficient energy system. From the demand side, key industries in China's carbon neutrality sector will build a green and low-carbon manufacturing system through process innovation, energy efficiency improvement, fuel substitution, digital transformation, large-scale application of CCUS, industrial general technology, and pan-industrial network technology breakthroughs.
New photovoltaic technologies are developing along a dual track of 'efficiency breakthroughs + scenario differentiation': high-efficiency technologies such as perovskite stacking and TOPCon/BC dominate large-scale power stations, while flexible technologies like CIGS/OPV are penetrating into consumer electronics and construction sectors. Cutting-edge technologies such as quantum dots reserve potential for future growth.
Data source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan, LeadLeo Research Institute
