Industry Insight | Commercialization is on the horizon, and eVTOL is expected to develop rapidly as a major carrier for the low-altitude economy

The full name of eVTOL is Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing aircraft, which generally refers to an aircraft capable of carrying human passengers or a large amount of cargo. It can take off and land vertically like a helicopter without relying on a runway. eVTOL is innovative in form, so it differs from traditional aircraft, helicopters, and drones. Its main characteristics are:

1) Electric: Mainly powered by electricity, whereas traditional fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters are primarily fueled by fuel;

2) Vertical takeoff and landing: Similar to helicopters and drones, it can achieve vertical takeoff and landing without the need for a long runway.

According to statistics from the Vertical Flight Society (VFS), as of November 2023, there are over 900 eVTOL projects and nearly 400 eVTOL manufacturers worldwide. The development and research of emerging eVTOL projects globally are diverse in type and form, and the classification methods for eVTOLs also vary. For example, by operating mode, eVTOLs can be divided into manned and unmanned categories; by payload form, they can be classified into manned, cargo, and hybrid manned-cargo types; by power source, eVTOLs can be divided into two main categories: all-electric and hybrid. The all-electric category includes lithium batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, and solar cells; the hybrid category includes lithium batteries + hydrogen fuel cells and lithium batteries + fuel. By payload size, eVTOLs can be divided into light (effective payload 100-200kg), medium (effective payload 300-500kg), and heavy (>1,000kg); by target customer, eVTOLs can be divided into 2B (commercial operations, referring to manned passenger transport, cargo transport, low-altitude tourism, etc.), 2G (government services, referring to urban management, police security, national defense and military, emergency rescue, etc.), and 2C (private flights, for personal or family travel); by airworthiness certification, eVTOLs can be divided into basic (requiring controllable landing in case of serious failures in the lift system, onboard equipment, etc., not suitable for flights over populated areas or commercial operations) and enhanced (still ensuring safe flight in case of serious failures in the lift system, onboard equipment, etc., suitable for flights over populated areas and commercial operations); by overall aircraft configuration, eVTOLs can be divided into vector propulsion, composite wing (lift and cruise composite), multi-rotor, and single-rotor types.

The eVTOL has not yet been commercialized. Its upstream suppliers mainly include batteries, power systems, flight control, communications, etc. The midstream mainly involves aircraft manufacturing, while the downstream serves users in various scenarios such as passenger and freight transportation.

Since eVTOL aircraft require large-capacity, high-energy-density, and safe and reliable battery systems to drive their electric power systems, the choice of battery suppliers has a significant impact on the performance, endurance, and reliability of the aircraft. Energy density determines the upper limit of an aircraft's range; currently, 300 Wh/kg can ensure a range of 200-300 kilometers; power density determines the aircraft's payload capacity. The power demand is greatest during vertical takeoff or landing, with the composite wing type having the highest power demand, not less than 700 W/kg, and the lowest multi-rotor also requiring no less than 400 W/kg; the charging and swapping speed determines the flight interval; the number of charging cycles determines the aircraft's service life.

The power system of eVTOLs mostly adopts the Distributed Electric Propulsion (DEP) system. Its redundant power design makes the aircraft safer. NASA and Joby's research shows that the DEP system can achieve the same thrust as a helicopter with three times the efficiency of traditional large engines.

The flight control system is the 'brain' of an eVTOL and also the most core subsystem. The eVTOL mainly relies on the flight control system to achieve aircraft perception, control, and decision-making. The flight control of eVTOL needs to solve technical challenges such as smooth switching between multi-rotor vertical takeoff and landing, conventional fixed-wing horizontal flight, and vertical-horizontal flight modes. Domestic manufacturers usually only master one of these technologies.

Currently, there are two main types of flight control suppliers in China. The first category consists of traditional flight control system providers, mainly military units, research institutes, and universities. These units have solid technical capabilities but their products are more expensive. The other category is composed of emerging private companies, which offer products with higher cost performance.

The communication system ensures effective communication between aircraft and ground control stations, other aircraft, and air traffic management systems. Currently, aircraft outside the UAM field are gradually introducing 4G/5G technology.

High-precision inertial navigation systems are expensive and mainly rely on military research and development systems. With the development of the automotive industry, a large number of MEMS sensor suppliers have emerged, offering products with mature technology, low cost, and good reliability. Currently, the mainstream method for eVTOL (Electrically Vertical Takeoff and Landing) is the use of MEMS sensors and GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System).

The aircraft manufacturer is responsible for designing, manufacturing, and delivering the fuselage of eVTOL aircraft. The fuselage design needs to consider the aerodynamic performance of the entire aircraft, rotor blade design, etc., and possess advanced aviation engineering technology, materials science, and manufacturing capabilities to design and manufacture lightweight, robust, and safe eVTOL fuselages. According to the current development trend of UAMs around the world, only companies that prioritize obtaining airworthiness certification are likely to achieve commercial operation. Focusing solely on making the aircraft fly and fly well is not enough to support their commercial development vision.

As a carrier for urban air transportation, eVTOL can penetrate into urban centers for point-to-point transportation. There are mainly three key conditions for eVTOL application scenarios: densely populated urban areas, low-altitude fields within 100-1,000 meters, and point-to-point operations. Currently, eVTOL operations are divided into driverless and manned modes. Manufacturers mainly focus on two main directions: urban passenger and freight transportation, and continuously promote product iteration and upgrades through technological innovation in combination with target application scenarios. Compared with civil airliners, large commercial aircraft mainly solve air transportation over 1,000 kilometers, while eVTOL mainly addresses air transportation within densely populated urban spaces, suburbs, and intercity areas for point-to-point operations. It has significant cost-effectiveness in short-distance commuting within crowded cities, suburbs, and metropolitan areas.

The eVTOL application scenarios can be mainly divided into three categories: ToG (public services, national defense and military, policing and security), ToB (personal or family travel by vehicle), and ToC (commercial transportation).

ToG:It is mainly applied in public services, national defense and military affairs, and police security. In the public domain, it includes urban management, fire fighting and emergency rescue, agricultural and forestry plant protection, medical aid, power inspection, environmental monitoring, scientific exploration, geographic surveying, etc.; in national defense and military affairs, it includes special operations, logistical support, rescue and search, short-distance transportation, troop dispatching, battlefield positioning, aerial communication, etc.; in police security, it includes aerial patrol, counter-terrorism and stability maintenance, traffic law enforcement, drug and smuggling suppression, monitoring and tracking, etc.

TOB:It is mainly divided into two categories: passenger-carrying and cargo-carrying applications. Passenger-carrying applications primarily serve urban air mobility (UAM), such as urban air taxis, intercity flights, airport shuttle services, business passenger transport, and scenic spot sightseeing; cargo-carrying applications include intercity logistics, express delivery, fresh produce cold chain, business correspondence, and emergency medical services.

TOC:Mainly positioned for private aircraft, meeting personal travel needs.

With the mass production of global eVTOLs, their application scenarios will expand significantly, including urban passenger transport, regional passenger transport, urban logistics distribution, business travel, emergency medical services, and private aircraft. In the field of urban logistics distribution, eVTOLs are expected to replace traditional medium and short-haul air freight and road freight. For individual users, with mass production, the price of eVTOLs may drop to around 1 million yuan, potentially entering the general consumer market at the price of luxury cars.

Currently, the global eVTOL market is in its early stages of rapid development. Although most products are still in the testing phase, Horizon Robotics' EH216 received model certification in October 2023, and Joby Aviation has also delivered a small number of models to the US military. Meanwhile, other manufacturers have also shipped small quantities to private enterprises, aircraft enthusiasts, and other customers. Between 2020 and 2022, global eVTOL sales increased from 25 to 30 units.

According to the plans of various manufacturers, from 2023 to the end of 2025, the first models of major global manufacturers will gradually pass testing and obtain production licenses. At the same time, China's 'Green Aviation Plan' includes a pilot operation of eVTOLs scheduled for 2025. It is expected that starting from 2025, eVTOLs will gradually be put into use in tourist attractions, suburban areas, and other regions, leading to a rapid overall sales growth. It is predicted that from 2022 to 2030, global eVTOL sales are expected to grow from 30 units to 3,200 units, with an annual compound growth rate of up to 79.3%.

During the period from 2030 to 2035, as urban eVTOL infrastructure is gradually built and pilot operations are advanced within cities, the explosive growth of eVTOL models will not occur due to the long time required for policy improvement and implementation. It is expected that eVTOL sales will increase from 3,200 units in 2030 to 5,800 units, with an annual compound growth rate of 12.6%.

The development of eVTOL is driven by various market drivers. These include the pain points of traffic congestion brought about by urbanization, continuous technological progress, the development and improvement of related supporting infrastructure, as well as the introduction and implementation of favorable policies.

eVTOL has received widespread attention for its potential to solve urban traffic congestion problems. This vehicle with vertical takeoff and landing capabilities can navigate the skies of cities, effectively reducing ground traffic pressure. With the continuous growth of urban population and accelerating urbanization in China, urban transportation faces more challenges, which also create huge market opportunities for eVTOL. Currently, the average commute time for urban residents in China has exceeded 35 minutes, and the fast and efficient air travel services provided by eVTOL will bring more convenient travel options to urban residents. By shortening travel time between cities, eVTOL is expected to play a key role in future urban transportation networks, improving commuting efficiency and reducing time waste.

In the development of eVTOLs, technological innovation has played a key role in driving progress. Continuous innovation in battery technology has improved the endurance of eVTOLs, enabling them to have stronger flight capabilities in a wider range of application scenarios. Innovations in lightweight materials and structures have reduced the weight of aircraft, improved fuel efficiency, and increased endurance and maneuverability. The application of flight control and autonomous driving technologies has enhanced the safety and intelligent operation level of flights. Advanced communication and navigation systems enable eVTOLs to navigate more accurately and plan intelligent routes. These technological innovations provide a solid technical foundation for the widespread application of eVTOLs and promote the vigorous development of the industry.

The gradual improvement of navigation infrastructure is crucial for promoting the development of eVTOLs. Specialized landing and takeoff site planning and construction provide a convenient operating environment, making it easier for eVTOLs to integrate into urban transportation systems; the construction of charging infrastructure has shortened charging times and improved operational efficiency; the upgrade and improvement of air traffic control systems ensure the safe and efficient operation of eVTOLs in complex urban airspace; supporting maintenance bases, monitoring systems, and emergency rescue equipment enhance operational safety, providing a reliable foundation for commercial applications.

The Chinese government's support for the eVTOL industry at the policy level is very clear. In December 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference positioned 'low-altitude economy' as one of the country's strategic emerging industries; in December of the same year, the 'National Airspace Basic Classification Method' was released, providing regulatory support for the division of uncontrolled airspace and laying a solid foundation for the experimental operation and commercial deployment of eVTOLs. At the local government level, in response to the central call, five provinces including Sichuan, Hainan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Anhui have become the first batch of pilot areas for low-altitude airspace management reform across the country. In addition, at least 13 provinces, including Beijing, Guangdong, Anhui, etc., emphasized the importance of actively exploring and developing the low-altitude economy in their 2024 government work reports. The introduction of this series of policies provides strong policy guarantees for the development of the eVTOL industry.

The design and development of eVTOLs rely on predefined application scenarios and target markets, requiring developers to possess high-level technical research and development capabilities as well as vertical integration skills. During the development process, particular attention is paid to the selection and adjustment of the aerodynamic layout and overall configuration of the aircraft. The global development of eVTOLs has shown diverse technical paths, mainly including five directions: multi-rotor, compound wing, tiltrotor, tiltrotor duct fan with all-around vector control, stealth propulsion system plus tailless design, etc. Currently, the industry has not yet unified which technical path is the optimal solution, nor has there been a consensus on this issue. The compound wing design has achieved a balance between feasibility and advancement, while the tiltrotor design, although more technologically advanced, faces greater technical challenges. In the future, new technical paths that combine the advantages of multiple solutions may emerge.

As more and more passenger-oriented prototype aircraft enter the testing phase, freight-oriented ones begin commercial operations, and the industry collaborates to advance airworthiness regulations, infrastructure, and air traffic management systems, it is expected that by around 2025, eVTOLs will first begin operating on fixed routes such as freight logistics, intercity travel, airport transfers, and scenic area sightseeing, mainly adopting multi-rotor, compound wing, and tiltrotor designs. Especially during the period from 2024 to 2025, with the hosting of the Paris Olympics and Osaka World Expo, if the 'Air Taxi Service for the 2024 Paris Olympics' and the 'First Commercial Flight of Japanese Flying Cars at the 2025 Osaka World Expo' can proceed smoothly, it is expected to further stimulate market enthusiasm. By around 2030, freight-oriented eVTOLs are expected to be widely applied, paving the way for the commercialization of passenger-oriented ones. By then, airworthiness regulations, infrastructure, and air traffic management systems will be basically perfected, and technological progress will make aircraft safer and more reliable. Piloted passenger-oriented vehicles will shift towards commercial operation, air taxi services will gradually be introduced, and main configurations will include compound wing, tiltrotor, and tiltrotor duct fan designs.