Frost & Sullivan's 60th Anniversary Celebration
On November 25th, Frost & Sullivan (Frost & Sullivan, abbreviated as: FSS) held its 60th anniversary celebration. At the event, Mr. Wang Chenhui, Partner-in-Chief and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, and Mr. Yang Xiaocheng, Partner-in-Chief and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, jointly released 'The 60 Technologies Driving Global Growth' on behalf of the organization.
According to Mr. Wang Chenhui, for decades, Frost & Sullivan's emerging technology experts have led the growth of enterprises by researching emerging technology platforms and providing specific solutions to some key problems.
This year, Frost & Sullivan has specifically launched a map of the 'Top 60 Technologies Driving the World', which covers core insights into the top 60 leading technologies across nine sectors: environment and sustainable development, energy and public utilities, chemistry and new materials, information and communication technology, high-end manufacturing and automation, sensors and instrumentation, health care, medical devices and impact, and microelectronics.
Mr. Yang Xiaocheng introduced: "Since 1962, Frost & Sullivan has been at the forefront of identifying, analyzing, and monitoring emerging technologies and markets. Subsequently, we have been tracking and understanding the top 50 technologies that change the world every year, driving sustainable growth for our enterprise clients. The report aims to analyze overall industry trends, technical analysis and prospects in niche areas, and focus on the market dynamics of advanced technologies within the context of rapid technological development."
60 Technology Insights —— Information and Communication Technologies
Decentralized applications based on blockchain:Thanks to the development of technologies such as 5G, Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence, decentralized applications based on blockchain hold great potential. It is estimated that the global market size for decentralized applications will exceed $1 trillion by 2025.
Cognitive Radio:Cognitive radio will deepen its development in directions such as the integration of theory and application research, experimental verification system development, and the fusion of existing systems.
cloudy automation:CloudOps simplifies internal Ops, improving operational efficiency by about 20% and reducing task execution time by about 57%.
Deep Learning:The application field of deep learning is expanding rapidly, and technical research is developing at a high fever pitch. It is estimated that the market expenditure on deep learning in China will exceed 50 billion yuan in 2021, with enterprise hardware spending far exceeding software and service expenditures.
Open wireless access network:Opening up wireless access networks can save about 34% in costs, with global sales expected to grow at a double-digit percentage rate over the next five years, involving cumulative investments exceeding 5 billion yuan.
Intelligent Ops:In the future, with the fading of the COVID-19 pandemic, the coordinated advancement of digital industrialization and industrial digitization, as well as the stable growth of market demand, the scale of China's IT operation and maintenance and operations market is expected to increase to 200 billion yuan by 2023.
Intelligent Object Security:The next generation of security and authentication tools will involve behavioral analysis and advanced biometric technologies, complemented by the development in the field of the Internet of Things. The prospects for the development of intelligent object security are broad.
Core Insight 1:With the use of digital technology, consumers' personal data is becoming increasingly accessible. More stringent privacy regulations will prompt businesses to re-examine their security strategies globally in the near future.
Core Insight 2:With the development of a hyper-connected network ecosystem supporting 5G, the field of wireless communication continues to evolve. By 2025, 5G will cover about 60% of the global population, enabling automated operations and frictionless communication.
60 Technology Insights —— High-End Manufacturing and Automation
Autonomous Mobile Robot:Currently, autonomous mobile robots have matured and are used in many application scenarios. However, the main challenge lies in improving their precision. In the future, the autonomous mobile robot market will penetrate into scenarios outside industry, such as agriculture.
Exoskeleton robot:Currently, exoskeleton robot technology in the rehabilitation field is continuously iterating, driving down product costs, lightweighting, and achieving deeper human-machine interaction. It is expected that in the next 2-3 years, the consumer market will double annually, becoming the fastest-growing segment of exoskeleton robots.
Cognitive Manufacturing:With the gradual maturity of IoT and data analysis engine technologies, as well as the increasingly fierce competition and rising costs in modern manufacturing, cognitive manufacturing technology will become the mainstream technology in the trend of intelligent manufacturing.
Arc additive manufacturing:The application prospects of arc additive manufacturing technology are quite broad. With the update and iteration of its technology, it will focus on areas such as forming processes, high-precision and highly flexible forming systems in the future.
Core Insight 1:Relying on the flexibility and scalability of digital connected networks, traditional centralized and batch-oriented manufacturing models are transforming into distributed ones. As digital and cognitive technologies enter the manufacturing sector, establishing customized factories and rapidly serving customers through localized manufacturing and distribution systems will become mainstream trends.
Core Insight 2:Driven by the widespread use of smart devices, the industry is in the middle of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (commonly referred to as 'Industry 4.0'). However, the Fifth Industrial Revolution will focus on providing customized and personalized services to customers at lower costs and higher productivity. Manufacturers must participate in a collaborative ecosystem based on value creation, data sharing, and open innovation to remain successful.
60 Technology Insights - Sensors and Instrumentation
Behavioral Biometrics:In the future, with the technological updates and iterations of biometrics, its application scenarios will gradually expand, including recognition in areas such as faces, fingerprints, body shape, signatures, and behavior, and it will possess commercial value.
Flash Lidar:As the market scale of low-speed autonomous driving grows, flash lidar applied in this field will become the mainstream technical solution.
Graphene sensor:Graphene sensors have high applicability and sensitivity in the medical field, and their downstream demand will continue to expand.
L4 autonomous driving technology:Against the backdrop of high-precision maps, vehicle body sensors, and autonomous driving sensors combined with algorithm technology in L4 autonomous driving, its technology is expected to achieve widespread application in the next 5-10 years.
Hyperspectral image:The speed of data acquisition and processing continues to improve, and with the support of intelligent algorithms such as deep learning, the accuracy of hyperspectral classification will also be further enhanced.
Submillimeter wave:Submillimeter waves can be used to analyze the microscopic structure of objects and possess high value in technical fields such as radar, guidance systems, and remote sensing.
Sensing technology:In the future, sensing technology will develop towards integration, multi-functionality, and intelligence. It will combine computer technology with detection technology to endow sensors with the ability to collect, process, and exchange information.
Biological Sensor:The application scope of biosensors is gradually expanding, and there are hopes for breakthroughs in gene mutation detection and virus detection. It is expected to reach a market scale of 24.33 billion yuan in 2023.
Core Insight 1:Sensor technology is crucial in the development of autonomous vehicles. Lidar is also essential for Level 5 autonomous driving, as it enables a 360-degree view of the environment around the vehicle. Advances in non-contact sensing will bring about seamless interactive infotainment and remote information processing systems.
Core Insight 2:Sensors have always been an important part of the connected healthcare ecosystem. In fact, wearable devices have completely transformed healthcare by enabling remote monitoring. Sensors also aid in disease diagnosis: researchers are exploring terahertz (THz) sensing technology to develop breath analyzers for COVID-19 and other methods to detect the virus.
60 Technology Insights — Environment & Sustainable Development
Battery recycling treatment:The retirement volume of electric vehicle power batteries in China is expected to continue growing over the next five years, with the battery recycling market size exceeding 122 GWh by 2025. Among them, lithium iron phosphate batteries will account for 100.8 GWh, and ternary material batteries will be 21.6 GWh.
Carbon cycle:In the future, with the continuous advancement of carbon neutrality and the gradual maturity of carbon conversion technologies, artificial carbon conversion technology is bound to be gradually implemented. In terms of forest carbon sinks, over the next five years, the area of afforestation may increase by another 280,000 mu, approximately 1,540 million trees, with a market scale of about 2.3 billion yuan.
Green hydrogen:In the next five years, the cost of green hydrogen production will steadily decline, from about $4.2 per kilogram to $2.8 per kilogram, and China's annual green hydrogen production may reach 1.5 million tons.
Blue hydrogen:Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality and in accordance with the Paris Climate Agreement, it is projected that global blue hydrogen production will reach 30 million tons by 2030 (compared to less than 3 million tons currently).
Thermal chemical waste conversion:At present, China's thermochemical waste conversion technology is mainly applied in fields such as agriculture and forestry, and there is a certain gap between its technical level and that of developed countries. In the future, with the gradual maturity of technology, the target products during the thermochemical conversion process will have higher selectivity, stability, and economy.
Core Insight 1:Industrialization has increased carbon emissions, however, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies are being used to convert carbon emissions into raw materials for polymers, chemicals, and building materials, as well as higher crude oil recovery rates.
Core Insight 2:Green hydrogen has the potential to become an efficient energy storage method for renewable energy, while high-performance fuel cells can quickly and easily access stored energy (in the form of hydrogen). Hydrogen technology will change the pattern of transportation and power infrastructure.
60 Technology Insights —— Medical Devices and Imaging
Digital therapeutics:Digital therapies can be used alone or in combination with medications, medical devices, or other therapies. Technological advancements may lead to a surge in digital health interventions targeting broader health conditions, improving patient outcomes through personalized treatment and increasing patient engagement.
New Generation Pathology:Combining big data and cloud storage technology, tissue samples are scanned and stored in the cloud, with all virtual pathologists' evaluations conducted online. Pathological research is gradually elucidating the etiology, pathogenesis, and nature of many diseases that have long been unrecognized. In the future, it is expected that many diseases will be found to be closely related to the body's immune state during their occurrence and development.
Intelligent triage system:Currently, departments and experts are recommended based on patients' conditions. In the future, it is expected that training models can be customized according to hospital data, seamlessly fitting into hospital scenarios and supporting personalized customization of hospital department comparison systems.
Digital biomarkers:By using digital biomarkers and leveraging massive health data to analyze individual states, it is possible to predict future health outcomes, improve user compliance, and potentially drive a shift in the health care model from passive response to proactive prevention.
Contactless health monitoring:Currently, non-contact health monitoring systems used collect and analyze data on one or two parameters. In the future, with the integration of various technologies, more dimension parameters will be measured and analyzed simultaneously, reducing their susceptibility to external influences and achieving more comprehensive and accurate analysis.
Surgical visualization:With the development of underlying technologies applicable to various surgeries and customized solutions, as well as improved training for surgeons and patient acceptance, surgical visualization will become increasingly diverse. For example, underlying technologies enable higher precision in operations under remote control by surgeons.
Core Insight 1:The shift from hospitals to homes is leading to decentralization and universalization of care. The pandemic has overwhelmed hospitals, making remote areas the preferred destinations for managing chronic diseases, aging populations, and end-of-life care. The healthcare industry is also transitioning from one-size-fits-all approaches to more customized diagnoses and treatment methods.
Core Insight 2:The surge in COVID-19 patients in hospitals has driven the demand for intelligent medical triage technologies, which can effectively stratify patients based on risk. Digital therapies have played an important role in value-based care and management of chronic diseases and mental health conditions, overcoming limitations on the location, timing, and availability of healthcare resources.
Core Insight 3:Ubiquitous connected devices and substantial capital investment have contributed to the development of digital biomarkers, while advanced surgical visualization has improved surgical precision. The next generation pathology supported by automation, powerful AI-based imaging and analysis, and enhanced informatics and workflow is enabling personalized medicine and rapid drug development.
60 Technology Insights — Energy & Utilities
Power grid edge system:In the future, with the increase in the number of grid-connected devices and the gradual popularization of distributed generation, energy storage, and other applications, the penetration rate of edge systems into the power grid will rapidly rise.
Power grid energy storage:The installed capacity of energy storage on the power grid side is expected to increase tenfold, from 0.8 GW in 2020 to 8 GW by 2025.
High-capacity lithium-ion batteries: Lithium-ion batteries are expected to continue their growth trend in the future, with the market size reaching $65.01 billion by 2025.
High-performance fuel cells:With the reduction in costs and technological breakthroughs, the energy conversion efficiency of fuel cells may be increased to 50-80% within the next five years, and they will also achieve large-scale application in the field of hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Peroxide solar cell:At present, peroxide solar cells are still in the research and development stage, but they are expected to be commercially available within the next five years.
Solid-state battery:Solid-state batteries are expected to gradually become commercially available in 2025 and may become the main technical route for power batteries by 2030.
Distributed Energy Generation Technology:Distributed photovoltaics will become the main force of distributed energy, with its installed capacity expected to grow from about 78 GW in 2020 to 234 GW by 2025.
Diversification of power conversion:Globally, the total installed capacity for diversified power conversion is currently slightly over 100,000 kilowatts. Based on the current proposed projects, it is estimated that by 2030, the installed capacity for diversified power conversion will exceed 11 million kilowatts.
Core Insight 1:The growth of renewable energy depends on the transition from centralized power stations to distributed ones, as well as the development of smart and reactive power grids capable of seamlessly adapting to various energy fluctuations. The combination of energy storage technology on a grid scale with advancements in artificial intelligence and automation technologies will enable distributed, flexible, and reliable grids with a higher share of renewable energy.
Core Insight 2:Lithium-ion batteries have become the center of automotive electrification. Automakers and battery manufacturers are leading advancements in electrode materials and battery pack design to produce advanced and cost-effective batteries for long-distance driving. With policies supporting the global hydrogen economy in place, fuel cell technology will help many industries decarbonize.
60 Technology Insights — Chemistry and New Materials
5G materials:The density of 5G base stations will reach at least 1.5 times that of 4G, with an estimated number of 6 million macro base stations in China and over 8 million globally. It is projected that by 2024, the incremental market space for PTFE in China's 5G base stations will exceed 2.2 billion yuan, with peak periods exceeding 600 million yuan per year.
recyclable polymer:The main challenges in the future come from how to make these processes more cost-effective, as well as endowing new materials with chemical recyclability so that they do not become new waste after their service life has ended.
4D materials:The application of 4D printing in practical engineering fields such as aerospace, biomedicine, intelligent robots, and smart molds will lead to a large number of interdisciplinary research in the future.
Antiviral coating:Antiviral coatings are mainly used in healthcare, indoor air purification systems, food processing, and construction and home furnishings. In the post-pandemic era, there will be a significant growth in market demand for these products.
Alternative protein:Alternative proteins must achieve the same level of taste, texture, and price as animal proteins.
Cathode materials for energy storage:China will achieve a transformation from the initial commercialization stage to large-scale development of new energy storage by 2025, with an installed capacity of over 30 million kilowatts; by 2030, it will realize the full market-oriented development of new energy storage.
Physical digitization packaging: Provides convenient, personalized, context-sensitive messaging, products, and shopping experiences, while offering meaningful multi-channel shopper engagement experiences.
Carbon fiber:Carbon fiber products are developing towards stability and high-endization, as well as seeking new market areas to achieve breakthrough development.
Core Insight 1:Concerns about landfills and carbon emissions have prompted the industry to prioritize material recyclability and sustainability in the chemical and materials value chain. Recycling and waste-to-energy technologies have promoted the development of recycled polymers and other recycled materials, which are used as packaging materials, secondary raw materials, and building materials.
Core Insight 2:The development of distributed energy networks and alternative energy sources, efforts to strengthen 5G infrastructure, and advancements in electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles have created a demand for advanced battery materials, especially cathode materials with better stability, cycle life, and range.
60 Technology Insights — Microelectronics
Miniaturization and matrixization techniques:Chip mass transfer technology is a key technology for the mass production and application of miniaturization and matrix technologies. With the breakthrough in mass transfer technology, it is expected that the global Micro LED market size will reach $4.2 billion by 2024.
Accelerated storage:With the country's support for new infrastructure development and the rapid development of new technologies such as the Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence, data volume has exploded, driving accelerated development in the storage market.
Adaptive computing:Thanks to the further development of global intelligent connected devices and trends, adaptive computing will continue to optimize the forefront of applications. It is estimated that the global FPGA chip market size will reach $125 billion by 2025.
Optical waveguide:As an important optical component in the AR industry, optical waveguides have benefited from the home economy. It is expected that the global shipments of AR devices will reach 1.4 million units in 2022, indicating a broad market prospect for optical waveguides.
Edge inference:Due to the exponential growth in global data volume and computing power, edge computing continues to expand. It is estimated that the global market size for edge inference chips will reach $7 billion by 2024.
Silicon-based gallium nitride:In 2020, silicon-based gallium nitride wafers accounted for 40% of the gallium nitride LED market. With the expansion of 5G infrastructure and the demand driven by defense applications, the silicon-based gallium nitride market is expected to continue growing.
Gallium oxide electronic devices:Gallium oxide has good application prospects in power regulation and distribution systems, with global gallium oxide power components expected to reach 9.3 billion yuan by 2030.
Core Insight 1:The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the widespread adoption of digital applications, providing growth opportunities for reprogrammable semiconductors and optical waveguides. Big data and the Internet of Things have laid the foundation for smart factories and autonomous vehicles that rely on complex artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms.
Core Insight 2:Due to the latency and security challenges brought about by traditional technology, developers are deploying intelligence at the edge for real-time higher security and actionable insights. The industry needs heterogeneous processing solutions to handle different AI workloads, which has prompted semiconductor giants to develop platform-based solutions that can dynamically modify system architecture to execute multiple tasks while using limited computing resources.
Core Insight 3:Low-cost electronics and miniaturization of circuits are key innovation areas in the demand-driven microelectronics industry, with stakeholders exploring gallium nitride on silicon and gallium nitride compounds on carbonized silicon.
