New energy commercial vehicles refer to all new energy freight trucks and new energy passenger vehicles with more than 9 seats.
With technological progress, new energy commercial vehicles in China are gradually shifting towards intelligence and higher safety standards. Intelligent new energy commercial vehicles, integrating intelligent manufacturing technology, industrial control technology, modern communications, explosion-proof technology, and intelligent networking technology, will become a new trend.
The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in major scenarios is gradually increasing.
At present, the application scenarios of new energy commercial vehicles are mainly concentrated in fields such as construction machinery, mining excavation and transportation, road transportation, and urban distribution logistics.Currently, in specific scenarios such as ports and mining areas, the operating environment of new energy commercial vehicles is harsh, with complex electromagnetic environments, larger blind spots for drivers, and a higher incidence of safety accidents. From the perspectives of safety, cost, and efficiency, intelligent connected new energy commercial vehicles will be needed by the market. The application of artificial intelligence, big data analysis platforms, and intelligent devices in the field of new energy commercial vehicles includes blind spot monitoring and driver monitoring for safety reasons. By collecting actual driving images and driver status through terminals, cameras, sensors, etc., functions such as identifying poor driving behaviors of drivers, blind spot hazards, and vehicle status can be realized, thereby reducing the incidence of traffic accidents during operation and achieving safe intelligent assisted driving.
In the future, with the improvement of industrialization levels and continuous technological upgrades, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in major scenarios will further increase, and they will be applied in a wider range of scenarios.
New energy commercial vehicle industry chain
New energy commercial vehiclesThe upstream of the industrial chain mainly consists of raw material and equipment providers.The 'three electric systems' of upstream components are the core parts that distinguish new energy commercial vehicles from traditional industrial fuel vehicles. The industrial chainThe midstream sector consists of new energy commercial vehicle manufacturers engaged in the research and development, production, and sales of new energy commercial vehicles..Industrial chainThe downstream application scenarios include new energy commercial vehicles for construction machinery, mining excavation and transportation, road transport, urban distribution logistics, etc..
Currently, the leading new energy commercial vehicle companies in the industry have a comprehensive industrial chain that covers multiple important links, penetrating upwards into core components such as powertrains, battery PACKs, and thermal management systems. They also form partnerships with numerous downstream customers, providing customized products and solutions for specific scenarios, such as developing autonomous driving systems for specific scenarios to create autonomous transportation systems. In addition, these companies offer services that cover the entire product lifecycle, including charging and swapping, maintenance, connected vehicle remote monitoring, and vehicle data analysis, gradually forming a closed-loop advantage across the entire industrial chain and promoting the integration of upstream and downstream resources.
New energy commercial vehicle industry chain
Data source: Frost & Sullivan
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Analysis of Typical Downstream Applications of New Energy Commercial Vehicles
From 2016 to 2021, road freight volume accounted for more than 72% of the total social freight volume, proving the dominant position of road freight in China's logistics industry. The road freight market scale reached 5.9 trillion yuan in 2020 and is expected to reach 8.2 trillion yuan by 2025. With the country's increasing emphasis on environmental protection and the continuous improvement of charging infrastructure across regions, large logistics enterprises have also begun to focus on pure electric heavy trucks. Against the backdrop of electrification in truck manufacturing and logistics enterprises, the scale of China's road transportation market is expected to explode.
In modern urban life, various large-scale logistics, express delivery, freight forwarding, fresh produce, moving services, etc., all require urban distribution logistics. In 2021, the total social logistics volume in China exceeded 300 trillion yuan, with the total urban distribution logistics volume nationwide exceeding 2 trillion yuan and more than 13 million people engaged in urban distribution logistics. Urban distribution logistics is becoming an important downstream application scenario for new energy commercial vehicles. In recent years, China has strongly supported the development of green urban distribution logistics industry by introducing a series of policies to lead the development of the industry. At the same time, new energy commercial vehicle companies are actively promoting product research and development and technological upgrades, which are expected to drive a rapid expansion of the market for new energy urban distribution logistics vehicles in China.
The strong growth in container throughput at Chinese ports has become the biggest highlight of China's port economy. In 2015, the container throughput at Chinese ports was 210 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), and by 2021, it had continued to grow to 280 million TEUs. The increasing container throughput at Chinese ports has promoted the demand for port logistics and in-port services. With the stable control of the pandemic and the gradual recovery of global industrial production, import and export trade volumes have gradually rebounded. There has been a shortage of container capacity, and the imbalance between supply and demand has led to skyrocketing freight rates, further increasing market concentration.
The trial and promotion of new energy vehicles in various links of the port-related logistics chain can fully enhance the green development level of ports, and promote the electrification and automation of port short-distance handling vehicles and loading/unloading equipment.
Market scale of new energy commercial vehicles in China
As new energy commercial vehicles further break through in core technologies such as power systems, intelligent networking, and autonomous driving, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is expected to see rapid growth.In July 2022, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in China exceeded 10.0%, and it is expected to reach 41.0% by 2026. The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in China is expected to exceed 20.0% by 2024, potentially achieving the '14th Five-Year Plan' goals ahead of schedule. According to Frost & Sullivan statistics, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles in China will increase from 121,000 units in 2020 to 1.443 million units in 2026, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 51.1%.
China's new energy commercial vehicle sales volume, forecast from 2020 to 2026
Data source: Frost & Sullivan
Market scale of new energy urban distribution logistics vehicles in China
According to vehicle type classification, new energy urban distribution logistics vehicles in China can be further divided into micro-cars, light trucks, micro-trucks and light truck chassis. The above models can cover the core scenarios of urban distribution logistics, including mobile vending carts, refrigerated trucks, sanitation vehicles, supermarket distribution vehicles, express delivery vehicles, passenger minibuses, etc. According to Frost & Sullivan statistics, the sales volume of new energy urban distribution logistics vehicles in China will increase from 69,000 units in 2020 to 1.053 million units in 2026, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 57.6%. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will rapidly increase from 2.5% in 2020 to 41.8% in 2026.Since 2022, new energy city distribution logistics vehicles have accounted for more than 70% of China's new energy commercial vehicle market share, with green city distribution logistics being one of the most important downstream application scenarios for new energy commercial vehicles.
Sales of new energy urban distribution logistics vehicles in China, forecast for 2020-2026
Data source: Frost & Sullivan
Market scale of new energy heavy trucks in China
The demand for transportation in China's logistics and engineering-related industries is constantly rising. Thanks to the rapid development of these industries, the sales volume of heavy trucks in China has shown an explosive upward trend. In 2021, driven by the national 'dual carbon' strategy, new energy heavy trucks became the biggest highlight in the heavy truck market, bringing new hope for the electrification of heavy trucks in China in the future.In 2021, China's new energy heavy trucks sold a total of 10,448 units, breaking through the 10,000-unit mark for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 298.9%.
From the perspective of electrification technology paths for heavy trucks, in 2021, the charging mode accounted for 67% of the market share, while the battery swapping mode accounted for 33%. The battery swapping mode is the main industrialization path for heavy truck electrification, which helps to improve operational efficiency and reduce purchase costs. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched about 13 pilot cities for battery swapping modes, and it is expected that the sales volume of battery-swapped heavy trucks will reach 20,000 to 30,000 units in 2022.
Sales volume of new energy heavy trucks in China, 2020 - 2021
Data source: Frost & Sullivan
Development Drivers and Trends of China's New Energy Commercial Vehicle Industry
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Diversification of downstream customer application scenarios
Currently, the application scenarios of new energy commercial vehicles mainly focus on mining underground, ports and docks, airport civil aviation, urban distribution logistics, and other fields. In the future, with the improvement of industrialization levels and continuous technological upgrades, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in manned and transportation scenarios will further increase, and they will be applied in more logistics scenarios, including warehousing transportation, mobile vending, industrial and urban distribution last-mile scenarios, etc.
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The iteration of technology drives new energy commercial vehicles towards intelligent development
With the gradual maturity of technologies such as intelligent manufacturing, electrification, industrial proactive safety, battery quick swapping, and connected vehicles, new energy commercial vehicles will develop towards explosion-proof durability, energy conservation and emission reduction, intelligent safety, and efficient sustainability. The electric drive chassis features fast response speed, high control accuracy, and strong energy recovery capabilities, making it an inevitable requirement for developing advanced autonomous driving. Especially for new energy commercial vehicles applied in urban distribution logistics and industrial fields, companies with a complete electric vehicle safety system, connected vehicle big data platform, and intelligent manufacturing capabilities will have an edge in product research and development, production, safety, and intelligence.
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Policies are driving the widespread adoption of new energy commercial vehicles in various fields
The Chinese government has issued a series of incentive policies to promote the healthy development of the new energy commercial vehicle industry.
The 'New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)' issued by the State Council proposes to promote the application of new energy vehicles in areas such as port operations, and to create safe and efficient logistics transportation services; starting from 2021, the proportion of new energy vehicles in public domain should not be less than 80%. The 'Carbon Peaking Action Plan before 2030' proposes to strive for full electrification of on-site vehicle equipment in civil transport airports by 2030. The 'Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Intelligent Development of Coal Mines' point out that China should implement unmanned transportation in open-pit coal mines by 2025. The 'Intelligent Mine Construction Specifications' (Draft for Soliciting Opinions) issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources propose that coal mines should choose driverless equipment to reduce the number of personnel at the production site. A series of supportive policies directly drive the development of the industrial intelligent electric vehicle industry.
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The market demand for driverless commercial vehicles is vast
Autonomous and driverless technology has become a necessity in application scenarios such as ports, mining areas, and industry. Facing multi-vehicle collaboration and complex industrial scenarios, coupled with the rapid growth of foreign trade, port foreign trade throughput continues to increase. New energy commercial vehicle manufacturers have been deploying driverless technology.
Relying on rich R&D experience and massive multi-scenario operation data, new energy commercial vehicle companies equipped with the connected vehicle big data platform have a first-mover advantage in the field of autonomous driving technology, enabling advanced functions such as automatic capacity dispatching, automatic order generation, vehicle remote control, and autonomous driving.
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The business model of new energy commercial vehicles is developing towards diversified ecosystem construction.
Currently, the new energy logistics vehicle industry chain lacks comprehensive service providers that integrate 'manufacturing + leasing + sales + fleet management + value-added services'. With further improvement in the intelligence level of new energy commercial vehicles and the completion of digital platform construction, new energy commercial vehicle manufacturers will offer customers full lifecycle fleet solutions, including customized services such as sales and leasing, after-sales service, fleet operation, used car trading, etc. They will also more specifically solve problems faced by customers in single or complex scenarios, helping customers reduce initial capital investment, alleviate cash flow pressure, and enable customers to focus on the development of their own business areas.
At the same time, new energy commercial vehicle manufacturers provide emergency response services to customers by leveraging more professional product backend upgrades and technological iterations, thereby maintaining and consolidating customer loyalty.
