National Day Special 7: From "Sufficient Food and Clothing" to "Good Food and Beautiful Clothing": The Map of Clothing and Food Consumption Upgrades in the First Year of the "15th Five-Year Plan" Initiative

From 2016 to 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased from 332,316 billion yuan to 501,202 billion yuan, an expansion of 50.8% over ten years, marking the entry into a new stage of "50 trillion-level". In 2025, the contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 52.0%. The average contribution rate from 2021 to 2025 was as high as 55.4%, solidly establishing domestic demand as the main driving force.

The structural changes in clothing and food consumption are the best indicators to observe this process. In 2025, China's Engel coefficient dropped to 29.3%, continuously declining from 30.1% in 2016. It reached a temporary low of 28.2% in 2019. With the upgrading of the consumption structure and the increase in out-of-home dining, the Engel coefficient is expected to fall below 26 during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Meanwhile, the proportion of food, tobacco, and alcohol expenses in per capita consumption expenditure decreased from 29.8% in 2021 to 29.3% in 2025, while clothing expenses remained stable at around 6%. The significant shift from survival-oriented consumption to development-oriented consumption has created broad space for the growth of enjoyment-based consumption.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Frost & Sullivan

Digital channels have injected new momentum into clothing and food consumption. In 2025, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 130,923 billion yuan, accounting for 26.1% of the total social retail sales. Among them, online retail sales of food increased by 14.5% year-on-year, leading significantly over clothing (+1.9%) and household items (+4.1%). "Onlineization of food" is the most distinct characteristic of these channels. Catering consumption also performed steadily. In 2025, catering revenue was approximately 5.8 trillion yuan. Its high-frequency and essential nature, together with instant retail, formed a large near-field consumption magnet.

Source: "White Paper on China's Industrial Development Trends for the Next 50 Years (Issue 5)", National Bureau of Statistics, Frost & Sullivan

Policy efforts have provided certainty support for clothing and food consumption. Reviewing the policy landscape, China's domestic demand expansion policy system has evolved over more than a decade, forming a complete chain from macro-strategy to micro-measures: The Central Economic Work Conference in 2023 elevated domestic demand from "basic driving force" to "active driving force". In 2025, the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" further deployed seven major actions, including increasing income for urban and rural residents, supporting consumption capacity, and improving service consumption for the public. From 2024 to 2025, the consumer goods replacement policy drove sales of related products close to 3.9 trillion yuan, benefiting 490 million consumers. Policy tools were used to accelerate both consumption expansion and industrial transformation.

The expansion of the population base determines the ceiling for clothing and food consumption upgrade. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the size of China's middle-income group has now exceeded 400 million people, ranking first globally. By 2035, this group is expected to reach 600 to 800 million people, becoming the main source of new consumption growth. At the same time, the coordinated consumption trend between urban and rural areas is clear: The ratio of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents narrowed from 2.7 in 2016 to 2.3 in 2025. From 2022 to 2025, the consumption growth rate in rural areas continued to be higher than that in urban areas. The potential of clothing and food consumption in county-level and lower-tier markets is accelerating.

"15th Five-Year Plan" period, the underlying logic of food consumption is first supply security. China's agricultural supply capacity has been continuously enhanced: In 2025, grain production reached 71,488 million tons, consistently above 1.3 trillion jin for many years; meat production exceeded 100 million tons for the first time, reaching 10,072 million tons; aquatic product production was 7,657 million tons, with aquaculture accounting for 82.6%, ranking first in the world for over 30 years; tea production was 392 million tons. Grain, meat, tea, and other products all rank first globally. High raw material self-sufficiency and strong supply stability in the food consumption sector form a solid foundation for food consumption upgrade.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Frost & Sullivan

On the basis of sufficient supply, food consumption is undergoing quality upgrades along three paths. First, family structure changes are driving category restructuring: Statistics show that the average household size in China has dropped to 2.5 people. The smallness of families has led to adjustments in food packaging, one-person servings, and instant products. Demand for prefabricated dishes and other categories continues to grow, and the supply chain order structure is shifting from "large quantities, few batches" to "small quantities, many batches". Second, the digitalization of the "from field to table" chain: Agricultural traceability and community group buying shorten the circulation chain, and consumer data guide planting and breeding decisions. Agriculture is shifting from "production-oriented" to "consumption-oriented". Third, the aging population is creating a new market for age-friendly foods: Survey data shows that age-friendly foods have the highest demand rate of 89.5%, ranking first among all age-related demands. The permanent tooth decay rate among the 65-74 age group is as high as 98%, and the average number of remaining teeth is only 22.5. Chewing dysfunction is common. Developing age-friendly foods with soft texture, balanced nutrition, and easy to chew has broad demand. This category is shifting from "easy to digest" basic type to "precise nutrition" functional type.

Clothing accounts for approximately 6% of China's consumer spending. It is a typical non-essential, high-price elasticity category with high demand, serving as a sensitive indicator of consumption attitudes. From the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2026, the revenue data of representative clothing brands outlined the typical characteristics of current clothing consumption: "Lipstick Effect" and "K-Type differentiation" coexist.

Data shows that sports and leisure brands targeting mid-to-high end performance have strong growth potential: Lululemon's sales in the Greater China region maintained a high growth rate of 20% to 60% for long periods, reaching 75% in some quarters; Amer Sports maintained a growth rate of over 40% in most quarters; brands such as Decathlon, Colmar, and Asics maintained a stable growth rate of 20% to 55%. In contrast, Nike experienced consecutive negative growth for several quarters starting from the second half of 2024 (down 20% in the second quarter of 2025), while traditional mass brands generally saw minimal growth or decline. When budgets are limited, consumer choices show clear differentiation. Some choose to purchase luxury items to gain emotional value and identity, while others seek the best cost-performance ratio. Brands in the middle range, lacking emotional appeal and price advantages, are quickly eliminated.

Source: "White Paper on China's Industrial Development Trends for the Next 50 Years (Issue 5)", Frost & Sullivan

Behind this differentiation lies a complete reconstruction of consumption decision-making logic. Since April 2022, the consumption willingness sub-item of China's consumer confidence index has fallen below the boom-and-bust line and has remained low ever since. In April 2026, it was only 95.6. Residents' decision-making logic for large expenditures has shifted from blindly chasing brand premiums to rigorously examining quality and price. The definition of cost-performance ratio has been completely reconstructed, and "quality-cost ratio" has become the measurement standard. In the future, the clothing market will rapidly split into two rigid segments: one is the high-end segment providing emotional value and identity, and the other is basic functional products returning to maximum efficiency.

The self-pleasure orientation of clothing consumption is just a microcosm of the self-pleasure economy trend. China's self-pleasure economy market size has expanded from 4.3 trillion yuan in 2021 to 5.7 trillion yuan in 2025, and is expected to exceed 10.8 trillion yuan by 2035. The compound growth rate from 2021 to 2045 is 5.5%, significantly faster than the overall consumption market. Approximately 260 million Gen Z people contribute about 40% of the national consumption scale. Their consumption motivations are shifting from practical functions to emotional satisfaction and personal expression. "Value resonance", "self-healing", and "ritual sense" rank among the top three preferences for self-pleasure consumption. For clothing companies, shifting from "selling products" to providing comprehensive solutions including "emotional resonance + identity expression + experience services" has become a necessary lesson for crossing the cycle.

The stratification and fission of the demand side are forcing the clothing and food supply system to undergo an efficiency revolution. A set of key data reveals this transformation: Since 2017, the inventory ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size in China has reversed upward, rising from 10.0% to 12.6% in 2025, and remained above 12.4% for three consecutive years after 2022. Meanwhile, revenue growth has slowed significantly. The "high inventory, low turnover" gap indicates that the traditional "prediction - production - distribution" push-based supply chain has reached its efficiency ceiling.

Source: "White Paper on China's Industrial Development Trends for the Next 50 Years (Issue 5)", National Bureau of Statistics, Frost & Sullivan

Under this background, flexible production capacity (C2M) is no longer just a cost reduction tool but a survival necessity. The "small order, fast response" model will mature first in industries such as clothing and electronics. The supply side must use AI Agent to connect production and sales data, compressing production cycles from "quarterly inventory" to "weekly fast response". Precise supply in high-frequency, small-batch format will replace inefficient safety inventory, achieving a fundamental shift from "guessing demand" to "following demand". In fact, China's textile and clothing and other consumer goods manufacturing industries have deeply integrated into the global intermediate goods supply chain. The maturity of flexible production and C2M models in the clothing industry constitutes the core competitiveness of Made in China in responding to demand fragmentation.

In the long term, the large consumer industry will evolve through three stages: from 2026 to 2035 is the "structure transition period", driven by both serviceization and urbanization; from 2035 to 2050 is the "stock optimization period", with the consumption rate converging to 50%; after 2050, it enters the "stable maturity period", where all consumer goods will incorporate three attributes: "self-pleasure emotional value", "low-carbon sustainability", and "age-friendly accessibility". By 2035, the scale of Chinese residents' consumption market is expected to reach 110 trillion yuan.

Green and low-carbon also reshaping the value coordinates of clothing and food consumption. Data shows that China's low-carbon consumption market size has increased from 4.0 trillion yuan in 2021 to 7.0 trillion yuan in 2025, maintaining double-digit growth for three consecutive years. It is expected to reach 106.5 trillion yuan by 2075. Green clothing and food scenarios such as plant-based foods, sustainable clothing, circular packaging, and second-hand trading are accelerating penetration. The "Implementation Plan for Promoting Green Consumption" clearly states that green concepts should be integrated throughout the entire chain in key areas such as food and clothing, so that by 2030, green consumption becomes a conscious choice of the public. Sustainable attributes are transforming from marketing concepts into core competitive elements of products.

"15th Five-Year Plan" begins, and the story of clothing and food consumption has gone beyond the narrative of basic needs. The continuous decline of the Engel coefficient, the 14.5% growth rate of food online retail sales, the 89.5% demand rate for age-friendly foods, and the double-digit growth of high-end sports clothing all point to one conclusion: Chinese clothing and food consumption is accelerating reconstruction on the tracks of quality, personalization, and digital intelligence. For businesses, whether they can respond to differentiated demands with flexible supply and win community recognition with emotional value will determine their position in this consumption structure transformation. For consumers, the expansion of the middle-income group from 400 million to 600 to 800 million people will provide the deepest population foundation for the quality upgrade of clothing and food consumption. From "enough food and clothes" to "good food and beautiful clothes", the history of clothing and food consumption upgrade is the most closely related note to people's livelihood in Chinese modernization.