沙利文洞见 AI PCB高景气及技术迭代，带动其生产耗材钻针的消耗量飙升、价格上涨，相关上市公司大举扩产。在此背景下，目前该行业供给与需求究竟如何；下游服务器技术不断迭代之下，钻针主流技术路线将如何变化；行业壁垒究竟在哪里；未来发展趋势如何…… 弗若斯特沙利文（ Frost  & Sullivan，以下简称“沙利文”）中国高级合伙人兼董事总经理贾庞接受财联社采访，共同探讨AI服务器PCB微钻针：真瓶颈还是伪命题。 每日经济新闻   Q： 近期有市场声音提出，全球 AI算力的最大瓶颈并非芯片、光模块或先进封装，而是一根直径不到0.2毫米的钻针——用于承载GPU的高多层PCB板在钻孔环节，特别依赖长径比达30倍以上的高端微钻针，而这类钻针当前极度稀缺。如何看待这一判断？在实际供应链中，这种钻针的短缺是否真的构成制约AI服务器（如英伟达GB200系列）量产的主要瓶颈？ 贾庞 沙利文中国高级合伙人兼董事总经理 这一判断有其产业逻辑，但需要校准表述边界 ——它准确捕捉到了AI服务器PCB制造正在进入精密加工瓶颈阶段，但若将钻针定性为"最大单点瓶颈"，则有所夸大。 从需求端看，以 GB200、NVL72为代表的新一代AI服务器，PCB层数已从传统服务器的12至16层跃升至24至40层，叠加M8、M9等超低损耗材料及石英纤维布的广泛应用，材料硬度更高、钻损更剧烈，单板耗针量成倍上升。供给端则高度集中，全球真正具备量产能力的高端微钻针厂商屈指可数，主要为日本Union   Tool、台湾Topoint等少数企业，供应偏紧是客观事实。 但若从整机量产视角审视，钻针是 "隐性卡点"而非"主瓶颈"。当前AI服务器量产的核心制约，仍集中在CoWoS先进封装产能、HBM供应、高速光模块及高阶CCL材料等环节。钻针的真实影响在于：当PCB向超高层、高密度方向演进时，钻针的交期延误与良率波动会系统性放大PCB制造瓶颈，进而传导至整机交付节奏。它是AI硬件产业链众多"长尾瓶颈"之一，其战略重要性在上升，但尚未成为决定全球AI算力扩张速度的单点变量。   Q： 据悉， AI服务器所采用的M9高频材料会大幅缩短PCB钻针的使用寿命，导致钻针消耗量激增，从而推动高端钻针市场量价齐升。相较于普通钻针，目前这类高端钻针的价格溢价幅度及变化趋势如何？ 贾庞 沙利文中国高级合伙人兼董事总经理 M9等高频高速材料相较传统FR-4，在玻纤密度、材料硬度和加工难度上均有显著提升，钻针在加工过程中更容易出现磨损、断针及孔壁粗糙等问题，直接推动AI服务器PCB厂商大量切换至超微径、高长径比及涂层高端钻针。 从价格维度看，溢价幅度相当可观。普通标准钻针单价约在 1至2元人民币区间，而面向AI服务器PCB的超微径、高长径比高端产品，单价普遍在十几元以上，溢价幅度达十倍乃至更高，部分极限规格产品溢价还要更大。背后的定价逻辑在于，高端钻针需要高精度硬质合金基材、精密涂层工艺与严苛的微孔尺寸一致性控制，制造壁垒远高于传统产品。 从趋势判断，高端钻针目前仍处于量价齐升通道。需求端， AI服务器PCB层数持续上行、M9材料渗透率提升，双重因素叠加推高单板耗针量；供给端，超微径高端钻针的全球产能主要掌握在日系厂商手中，短期难以大幅扩产，供需错配格局为价格提供持续支撑。   Q： 如何看待高端钻针市场未来的成长性？ PCB钻针行业主要玩家下一轮竞争的关键是什么？ 贾庞 沙利文中国高级合伙人兼董事总经理 高端 PCB钻针市场的中长期成长逻辑是清晰且具备持续性的。核心驱动来自三条并行主线：AI服务器PCB层数的代际跃升、M9等高频材料渗透率的提高，以及高速交换机、汽车电子等新兴应用对高多层高密度PCB的需求扩张。与传统消费电子场景相比，AI相关PCB对钻孔精度、良率稳定性和一致性的要求显著更高，钻针正在完成从"低值耗材"向"影响良率的关键工具"的角色跃迁，价值量和战略地位均在系统性提升。   产品方向上， 0.2毫米以下超微径钻针、高性能涂层钻针及适配高多层板的高长径比产品，将是未来最主要的增量空间。 下一轮竞争的分水岭，已从单纯的产能规模转向 "材料、工艺与客户验证"三位一体的综合能力壁垒。具体而言：涂层技术决定钻针耐磨性与使用寿命，是产品力的核心差异化所在；超微径与高长径比产品对硬质合金配方、加工精度和良率管控的要求极为苛刻，工艺积累难以快速复制；而高端钻针进入头部PCB厂供应链须经历漫长的认证周期，一旦导入，客户粘性极强，后来者的替代成本极高。此外，AI产业链的高强度建设节奏对供应商的交付稳定性和快速响应能力提出了新要求——兼具高端技术、规模化量产与敏捷交付能力的厂商，将在下一轮市场格局重塑中占据更有利的位置。   *本采访已刊登于财联社，作者为陆婷婷，原标题为：PCB钻针量价齐升   业内判断未来两年维持紧俏   钨钢棒短缺或制约扩产  | 传真

沙利文洞见   2026年以来，中国电池行业兴起快充、超充热潮。这是否有助于解决新能源车充电时间长这一难题，进一步冲击油车销量。此外，也有消费者质疑快充、超充伤害电池？这是否能够解决？中国电池厂商，通过降低电阻的方法提升充电速度。但是，电流增加对电池散热性能是否提出极高要求。另外，随着电池使用时间的增加，是否导致电阻增加，届时是否又将影响电池发热？如何看待钠离子电池的发展。若其通过规模优势降本，是否有助于提前相对低端市场的空缺，以及AIDC这类对放电倍率性能要求高的领域？钠离子电池未来是否能对锂电带来冲击？ 弗若斯特沙利文（ Frost  & Sullivan ，以下简称“沙利文”）中国高级合伙人兼董事总经理贾庞接受每日经济新闻采访，共同探讨共同探讨超充浪潮下电池技术的破局与新生。 每日经济新闻     Q： 2026年以来，中国电池行业兴起快充、超充热潮。这是否有助于解决新能源车充电时间长这一难题，进一步冲击油车销量。此外，也有消费者质疑快充、超充伤害电池？这是否能够解决？   快充、超充显著缩短补能时间，在高压平台（ 800V）与高倍率电芯普及下，已将补能体验逐步接近燃油车加油场景，对用户里程焦虑形成有效缓解，一定程度上加速了新能源汽车对燃油车的替代。但目前其影响力仍受限于充电网络密度、电网负荷及车型渗透率等因素。   传统石墨负极在快充、超充条件下有出现锂析出和枝晶生长，导致容量衰减和安全风险，对电池造成损伤。当前通过材料体系优化（如硅碳负极、低阻电解液）、热管理强化及 BMS精细控制，已在一定程度缓解高倍率充电带来的寿命衰减问题。此外，工信部新国标（GB38031-2025《电动汽车用动力蓄电池安全要求》）将于2026年7月起正式生效，其中针对超快充电池，要求300次快充循环后仍通过外部短路测试，明确SOC区间20%-80%快充性能需保持稳定，进一步保障快充、超充的安全。   Q： 中国电池厂商，通过降低电阻的方法提升充电速度。但是，电流增加对电池散热性能是否提出极高要求。另外，随着电池使用时间的增加，是否导致电阻增加，届时是否又将影响电池发热？   通过降低内阻提升充电速度，本质是提高电流通过能力。产热量与电流的平方成正比，这将显著增加发热，对热管理系统提出更高要求，包括热界面材料、整车热管理一体化设计。   高倍率充放电会加速电极材料颗粒破碎、固态电解质界面膜（ SEI膜）增厚，长期使用过程中内阻存在上升趋势，进而进一步放大热问题。因此行业正在通过电芯结构优化、材料稳定性提升及更精细BM策略，来延缓内阻增长，并通过整车级热管理来对冲高倍率带来的热风险。   Q： 如何看待钠离子电池的发展。若其通过规模优势降本，是否有助于提前相对低端市场的空缺，以及 AIDC这类对放电倍率性能要求高的领域？钠离子电池未来是否能对锂电带来冲击？   钠离子电池具备资源丰富、成本潜力大及低温性能较好的优势，在规模化后有望在低端乘用车、两轮车及储能等场景填补锂电成本下探的“空白区间”。其倍率性能相对较好，在AIDC等对高功率输出有需求的场景具备一定潜力。但从能量密度来看，钠电仍显著低于主流锂电体系，短期难以进入中高端乘用车市场。因此更可能形成“局部结构性替代”，与锂电在不同价格带与应用场景中长期共存。长期看，其竞争力取决于规模化降本与循环性能的持续优化。

Frost & Sullivan insight From the precision forging of rocket engine turbine blades to the precise adaptation of customized medical prosthetics; from the rapid prototyping of molds in factory workshops to the creative three-dimensional presentation in maker spaces—3D printing, once considered a "future technology," has now crossed the laboratory threshold and taken root in multiple fields such as aerospace, healthcare, and industrial production, becoming a core variable that shakes up the manufacturing landscape. What are the current main application areas of 3D printing technology, and which new areas may it expand into in the future? How does generative AI affect the modeling threshold of 3D printing technology and what changes has it brought to the industry? In recent years, what specific impacts have the IP economy and the trend of collectibles had on the 3D printing market? How does 3D printing technology help manufacturing enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency and what conveniences does it bring?   Mr. Liu Daming, China consulting manager at Frost & Sullivan (hereinafter referred to as "Frost & Sullivan"), was interviewed by Securities Daily to discuss new boundaries of 3D printing driven by AI. Securities Daily *Click at the end of the article Read the original article to view the complete report   Q: What are the current main application areas of 3D printing technology, and which new areas may it expand into in the future? Mr. Liu Daming China consulting manager at Frost & Sullivan From the current situation, the application scope of 3D printing has expanded from model making to broader consumer and commercial scenarios. Different technical routes such as FDM, photopolymerization, and metal have clear differences in their corresponding application areas: FDM is used more in the consumer market due to stable forming and controllable costs, mainly for daily necessities, small functional parts, and creative model making; photopolymerization has developed rapidly in fields with high detail requirements such as jewelry, collectibles, and shoe accessories due to its high forming accuracy; metal printing is still concentrated in the industrial sector, mainly for manufacturing complex parts and high-difficulty structural components. In addition, UV inkjet technology that has emerged in the past two years is also entering new sub-scenarios such as three-dimensional decoration, packaging, and display.   Overall, the expansion speed of the overall use of 3D printers has accelerated significantly in these two years. Now, in addition to large-scale models, people have started printing mixed products such as shoes, hats, belts, and flexible accessories; real estate companies and governments will use 3D printing models in urban planning; universities offer relevant courses, and enterprises open experience stores, significantly increasing the overall popularization rate. In the future, with further improvements in material systems and printing speed, the consumer market will continue to expand, while the demand on the commercial side, especially in small-batch customization and flexible production, will continue to grow.   Q: How does generative AI affect the modeling threshold of 3D printing technology and what changes has it brought to the industry? Mr. Liu Daming China consulting manager at Frost & Sullivan In the past, using a 3D printer required certain modeling skills, and people who couldn't model could only download public models from websites, severely limiting the application space. Now, with generative AI intervention, the modeling threshold has been completely lowered. Users only need to describe their requirements and the model tool can automatically generate printable 3D files, greatly expanding the usage radius of ordinary users. The significance of this change is not only about lowering the threshold but also reshaping the entire consumer usage logic. In the future, a person who has never been exposed to 3D modeling can also quickly create models through AI and turn them into actual products. With the improvement in material and equipment speed, AI + 3D printing may become a more scalable "personal manufacturing method," driving the maker market and education market to continue expanding.   Q: In recent years, what specific impacts have the IP economy and the trend of collectibles had on the 3D printing market? Mr. Liu Daming China consulting manager at Frost & Sullivan Early 3D printing models were mostly decorative and hard, driven by interest. In recent years, with the rise of the trend of collectibles and IP economy, higher requirements have been put forward for materials, colors, and forms. This has directly promoted the rapid development of technologies such as photopolymerization materials, flexible materials, and multi-color printing. On the consumer side, the trend of collectibles and IP culture has enhanced personalized needs, and people are willing to pay for customizable and creative derivatives. 3D printing can meet the production methods of small quantities, diversity, and high freedom, which highly coincides with the logic of collectibles, accelerating the penetration speed of consumer-grade equipment. On the enterprise side, trendy studios, design brands, and small supply chains have begun to purchase equipment as tools for small-batch sample development and quick return requirements.   Q: How does 3D printing technology help manufacturing enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency and what conveniences does it bring? Mr. Liu Daming China consulting manager at Frost & Sullivan Efficiency improvement in the manufacturing sector comes from three aspects: speed, success rate, and material performance. Especially in the past, the printing speed was only 150 mm/s, and a model might take hours or even days to print; now, mainstream equipment can reach 500 - 800 mm/s, greatly shortening the delivery cycle. At the same time, the printing success rate has increased from 50% in the early days to nearly 80% - 90% today, and the decline in failure rates has directly led to material savings and labor cost reductions. As materials have expanded from the initial single-color hard plastic to flexible, multi-color, and multi-material combinations, 3D printing's characteristics of "rapid prototyping - low loss - small-batch production" enable enterprises to achieve higher efficiency in model verification, small-batch trial production, and customized production. For manufacturing enterprises, this means that they can verify designs without mold opening, reducing their dependence on traditional processing and achieving obvious overall cost reduction and efficiency improvement effects. *This interview has been published in Securities Daily, with reporter Guo Jichuan, and the original title was: Empowering All Industries, Capital Chases in, 3D Printing Races to Enter a Golden Development Period

Fostering Insights from Frost & Sullivan Recently, MiniMax (Xinyu Technology) and Zhipu AI have successively passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing review, signaling that Chinese AI large model companies will enter the public market. What key signals does this wave of listings convey to the market? What is the current actual scale of the Chinese foundational large model market? What are the main drivers of its growth? How is the current market structure divided? Specifically, for leading startups represented by MiniMax and Zhipu AI, what are their market share and industry position? Compared to models from large companies such as Baidu Wenxin and Alibaba Tongyi, where does their differentiation lie? Looking ahead to the next 2-3 years, which decisive trends will emerge in the Chinese foundational large model market? What is the biggest risk they may face? What is the estimated market size?   Li Qing, China Director at Frost & Sullivan (hereinafter referred to as 'Frost & Sullivan'), was interviewed by The Financial Times to discuss the industrial maturity and commercialization path behind the wave of Chinese large model company listings . The Financial Times *Click on the end of the article Read the original article to view the complete report   Q: Recently, MiniMax (Xinyu Technology) and Zhipu AI have successively passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing review, signaling that Chinese AI large model companies will enter the public market. What key signals does this wave of listings convey to the market? Li Qing China Director at Frost & Sullivan MiniMax and Zhipu AI's success in passing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing review is not only a milestone for both companies but also an important sign that the Chinese AI large model industry is maturing. This wave of listings sends several key signals to the market: First, the industry has entered a new cycle of commercial validation and large-scale implementation from the early stage of technology exploration; second, capital markets have begun to provide institutional tolerance to AI enterprises with high R&D investment, which are not yet profitable but possess core technical barriers, making the Hong Kong stock market a crucial bridge connecting China's artificial intelligence industry with global capital; finally, domestic large models have entered a capital empowerment phase of global competition. After going public and raising funds, they will have more sufficient capital to support global layouts, which also indicates that Chinese large model companies are transitioning from local technological competition to a new stage of competing on the same stage as global AI giants. Q: What is the current actual scale of the Chinese foundational large model market? What are the main drivers of its growth? How is the current market structure divided? Li Qing China Director at Frost & Sullivan The market size of Chinese large models exceeded 20 billion yuan in 2024 and is expected to maintain an annual compound growth rate of over 40% for the next three years. The main drivers of growth come from three aspects: first, the urgent need for enterprises to transform digitally and reduce costs while increasing efficiency; second, continuous policy support for AI infrastructure construction; third, technological progress has driven the continuous expansion of application scenarios, deepening from general dialogue to specialized fields such as finance, healthcare, and energy. The current market structure shows clear differentiation: on one hand, internet giants (such as Baidu, Alibaba Tongyi, Tencent, ByteDance, etc.) dominate general scenarios with their data, computing power, and ecosystem advantages; on the other hand, professional large model startups like MiniMax and Zhipu AI focus on technical breakthroughs and vertical field deep cultivation. Among them, Alibaba Tongyi leads far ahead in the open-source model field, not only continuously launching high-quality open-source large model series (such as the Qwen series) but also actively building a developer ecosystem to significantly lower the threshold for enterprises. Its open-source model usage volume is globally leading. In addition, ByteDance's DouPao large model also performs excellently. Q: Specifically, for leading startups represented by MiniMax and Zhipu AI, what are their market share and industry position? Compared to models from large companies such as Baidu Wenxin and Alibaba Tongyi, where does their differentiation lie? Li Qing China Director at Frost & Sullivan Both MiniMax and Zhipu AI are core members of the 'Six Tigers' of large model industry. MiniMax's technical strength is internationally recognized, with its open-source model MiniMax-M2 performing excellently in global authoritative evaluations, while Zhipu AI stands out in developer ecosystem construction. However, at the foundational model level, their substantial differences from large model companies are actually limited. Current mainstream large models generally train on public datasets, and their architectures mostly adopt standard Transformers or their improved versions. Coupled with the fact that many models are open-source, the technical path is highly convergent, making 'building foundational models' itself difficult to form a real barrier. Q: Both companies face the challenges of huge R&D investment and non-profitability. Is their 'burning money' model healthy? What is the key path to profitability? How important is listing fundraising for them to achieve this path? Li Qing China Director at Frost & Sullivan As a capital and technology-intensive track, large models require continuous massive funding for underlying architecture research and development, computing power investment, and data accumulation. Global companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have also experienced long-term investment phases. However, if they rely on external fundraising for 'blood transfusion' and lack a clear revenue loop, this burning money model is essentially unsustainable and cannot be considered healthy. Listing fundraising can only alleviate financial pressure in the short term, supporting technology iteration and market expansion; it is an accelerator, not a cure. If they cannot verify large-scale monetization capabilities within 1-2 years after going public, relying solely on capital to sustain will be difficult to support long-term competition. The truly healthy path is to make revenue growth outpace the rate of burning money. The key path to profitability can be summarized into three points: first, strengthen the revenue loop of APIs and customized services; second, deeply cultivate high-adhesion niche scenarios; third, optimize cost control by innovating architecture and adapting domestic chips to reduce dependence on high-priced imported computing power and reduce cost losses in the inference phase. Listing fundraising plays an indispensable supporting role in this profit path. On one hand, in terms of research and development, funds raised through listing can support their continuous model iteration and expansion of the open-source ecosystem to cope with the competition for computing power and technology from large companies; on the other hand, in terms of commercialization, funds can help expand overseas markets, build channels, and improve customer service systems.   Q: Looking ahead to the next 2-3 years, which decisive trends will emerge in the Chinese foundational large model market? What is the biggest risk they may face? What is the estimated market size? Li Qing China Director at Frost & Sullivan Looking ahead, there are four decisive trends: 1. Parallel development of open-source and closed-source: Enterprises build developer ecosystems and enhance their technical influence through open-source foundational models while retaining closed-source versions of core capabilities for commercial monetization. 2. Accelerated implementation of multimodal and intelligent agent integration, with models shifting from single text and image interactions to cross-modal, manipulable intelligent agent forms, deeply penetrating into physical industries such as manufacturing and intelligent driving. 3. Accelerated process of domestic substitution, with more mature adaptation of domestic chips, frameworks, and models, and the localization rate of computing infrastructure is expected to rise above 40%, reducing industry dependence on overseas hardware. 4. Compliance becomes a basic threshold, with compliance requirements such as data security and model alignment forcing enterprises to improve their technology and management systems. The biggest risks they may face include industry internal strife caused by homogenization competition and supply chain risks related to core technologies and computing power. Currently, high-end computing chips still rely on imports, and if overseas restrictions intensify, it may affect the model iteration progress of some enterprises. *This interview has been published in The Financial Times, with reporter Li Guohui, and the original title was: 'The world's first 'big model' stock' may be born!'

Frost & Sullivan insight Current photovoltaic companies are deploying energy storage across various sectors. What is the most direct driving factor? What natural synergies exist between photovoltaics and energy storage that make their integration an inevitable trend? In the context of photovoltaic companies entering the energy storage sector, what competitive landscape has emerged at the market level? What changes have been brought about by the entry of photovoltaic companies into this pattern? In the future development of photovoltaic companies competing in the energy storage sector, which factors will become key determinants of success or failure? How should companies deploy and focus on these aspects?   China Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan (Frost & Sullivan, hereinafter referred to as 'Frost & Sullivan') Xiang Wei received an interview with China Business News to discuss industry opportunities and competitive logic under the acceleration of photovoltaic- storage integration. China Business News *Click on the end of the article Read the original article for a complete report   Q: What is the most direct driving factor for current photovoltaic companies deploying energy storage? What natural synergies exist between photovoltaics and energy storage that make their integration an inevitable trend? Xiang Wei China Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan The most direct driving factor for current photovoltaic companies deploying energy storage is the intermittency and volatility of photovoltaic power generation, making energy storage a key supporting measure to ensure power balance, improve system utilization rates, and enhance power supply reliability. Photovoltaics and energy storage have natural synergies in energy production, management, and dispatching: the electricity generated by photovoltaics can be optimized through the energy storage system in terms of time and space, while the energy storage system can smooth out photovoltaic output fluctuations, improving power quality and terminal utilization efficiency. Looking ahead, it is expected that the global new photovoltaic installations will grow from 504.4 GW in 2024 to 1,040.4 GW in 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of 12.8% during this period. At the same time, the global installed capacity of energy storage systems is expected to increase from 187.2 GWh in 2024 to 922.0 GWh in 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of up to 30.4%. Photovoltaic- storage integration has not only become an inevitable choice for improving energy system efficiency but has also gradually formed a core track in the strategic layout of photovoltaic companies.   Q: In the context of photovoltaic companies entering the energy storage sector, what competitive landscape has emerged at the market level? What changes have been brought about by the entry of photovoltaic companies into this pattern? Xiang Wei China Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Currently, the energy storage sector presents a competitive landscape with diverse participants coexisting, including traditional energy storage system suppliers, new energy integrators, and rapidly growing technology startups. As photovoltaic companies enter the energy storage market, the pattern has changed significantly: on one hand, photovoltaic companies, with their mature photovoltaic production capacity, supply chain management capabilities, and existing customer networks, quickly penetrate the energy storage market, forming an upstream and downstream integration advantage from power generation to energy storage; on the other hand, the large-scale entry of photovoltaic companies has accelerated market integration and competition, promoting the standardization of energy storage products, cost reduction, and large-scale application, while also increasing the speed of technological iteration and overall industry service capabilities, putting existing energy storage companies under new competitive pressure and strategic adjustment needs.   Q: In the future development of photovoltaic companies competing in the energy storage sector, which factors will become key determinants of success or failure? How should companies deploy and focus on these aspects? Xiang Wei China Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan In the future development of photovoltaic companies competing in the energy storage sector, the key factors determining success or failure mainly include technical capabilities, cost control, supply chain management, system integration and service capabilities, as well as market channel expansion. Technical capabilities determine the efficiency, lifespan, and reliability of energy storage systems and are at the core of product competitiveness; cost control and supply chain optimization affect the company's profit level and market price advantage; system integration and service capabilities are related to the implementation effect and customer stickiness of integrated photovoltaic- storage solutions; while a complete market channel and customer network can quickly achieve large-scale application. Companies should deploy comprehensively: first, increase investment in core energy storage technology research and product iteration to improve energy density, cycle life, and safety performance; second, establish a vertically integrated supply chain system to ensure the autonomy and controllability of key raw materials, core equipment, and production capabilities; third, promote the overall design and integration service capabilities of photovoltaic- storage systems to form an 'photovoltaic + energy storage + operation and maintenance' closed loop; fourth, rely on existing photovoltaic customer networks and overseas market layouts to accelerate large-scale implementation and achieve differentiated services, ensuring long-term advantages in competition. *This interview has been published in China Business News, with reporter Zhang Wenyu, and the original title was: Shaanxi's Photovoltaic Leader Enters the Energy Storage Sector

Insights from Frost & Sullivan Recently, driven by strict policy supervision and concentrated rectification efforts in multiple regions, the express delivery industry has witnessed a rare "collective price hike tide," breaking the years-long pattern of low-price competition. How effective has this round of policy-guided price hikes been, and what are the reasons? What difficulties have arisen during the process? Is the price hike trend sustainable? Will the scope continue to expand, and how can we avoid a resurgence of low-price competition in the industry?   Yang Lei, Consulting Director for Greater China at Frost & Sullivan (hereinafter referred to as "Frost & Sullivan"), was interviewed by the Economic Daily and Securities Daily to discuss the logic and trends behind the express delivery price hikes. Economic Daily, Securities Daily *Click on the end of the article Read the original article for a complete report   Q: How effective has this round of policy-guided express delivery price hikes been, and what are the reasons? What difficulties have arisen during the process?   Yang Lei Consulting Director for Greater China at Frost & Sullivan The core effect of this round of policy-guided express delivery price hikes is reflected in the effective containment of the long-standing "price-for-volume" vicious competition model in the industry, promoting the industry back onto a "value-driven" healthy development track.   Effect and Reasons   Firstly, from operational data, the effect is significant. In September 2025, several express delivery listed companies achieved synchronous growth in business volume and per-order revenue, presenting a positive situation of "both volume and price rising," which directly improved the profitability of enterprises and alleviated the previous operational pressure of "increment without revenue growth."   Secondly, the main reason for the price hike is the strong intervention at the policy level. The State Post Bureau and relevant departments have clearly opposed industry "involution," severely cracking down on dumping below cost prices through a series of regulations. This provides express delivery companies with the confidence and basis for price hikes, aiming to ensure stable operations at end points and the legitimate rights and interests of couriers, ultimately improving overall service quality.   Difficulties During the Process   However, the price hike process has not been smooth sailing, mainly facing the following difficulties:   Customer sensitivity and churn risk: Price hikes directly affect e-commerce customers who are highly sensitive to prices, especially merchants operating low-cost single-item goods. They may switch to cooperative courier companies or even move their warehouses to areas where courier prices have not yet risen in order to avoid cost increases.   Execution difficulties under the franchise model: In express delivery companies mainly based on the franchise model, the interests of headquarters and end points are not entirely aligned. Facing competition from major customers, some franchisees may choose to compromise to maintain business volume, resulting in discounts when the price hike policy is implemented at the end points.   Adaptation and competition within the industrial chain: Price hikes are a game process involving the entire industrial chain. Upstream e-commerce merchants have long relied on low-cost express delivery to control operating costs and need time to adapt and adjust their operational logic. At the same time, consumers may also face pressure from rising commodity prices due to cost shifting.   Q: Is the price hike trend sustainable? Will the scope continue to expand, and how can we avoid a resurgence of low-price competition in the industry?   Yang Lei Consulting Director for Greater China at Frost & Sullivan The price hike trend in the express delivery industry this time has a certain degree of sustainability, but the process will be gradual and full of competition. In the future, the price hike scope is expected to spread from point to other regions across the country.   Sustainability and Scope Expansion   The sustainability of price hikes mainly depends on several points: First, the country's firm stance and continuous policy pressure against "involution" provide institutional guarantees for prices to return to a reasonable range. Second, express delivery companies themselves have also realized the harm of low-price competition and have an internal drive to get out of the "profit dilemma" and pursue high-quality development. Third, market demand continues to grow, providing space for price adjustments. However, considering the complexity of the market, there is still a possibility of short-term price fluctuations or even small-scale declines, but it is almost impossible to return to an extreme era of low prices.   Measures to Avoid a Resurgence of Low-Price Competition   To avoid a resurgence of low-price competition, multiple parties need to work together to build a sustainable and balanced industrial ecosystem:   Strengthen policy supervision and enforcement: Regulatory authorities need to establish a dynamic cost monitoring system and cross-regional collaborative law enforcement mechanisms to ensure that the ban on "shipping below cost" is effectively implemented and prevent the policy from "going astray."   Promote enterprises to shift from "price wars" to "value wars": Express delivery companies should shift the core of competition from simple price comparisons to service quality, operational efficiency, and technological innovation. By providing differentiated and personalized services (such as door-to-door delivery, night delivery, etc.) to enhance brand premium capabilities and customer stickiness.   Accelerate technology empowerment and industrial collaboration: Promote the application of intelligent technologies such as automated sorting, big data route optimization, and unmanned delivery to continuously reduce costs and increase efficiency. At the same time, strengthen deep integration with the e-commerce industry, develop collaboratively through models such as warehousing and distribution integration, optimize the supply chain, and achieve win-win results.   Ensure end-point rights and stimulate vitality: A reasonable pricing mechanism should ensure that profits can be effectively transmitted to end points and couriers, guaranteeing their reasonable income and labor rights, stimulating the service vitality of the "last mile," which is the fundamental guarantee for improving service quality.   *This interview has been published in the Economic Daily and Securities Daily

Insights from Frost & Sullivan According to information published on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website, from September 20 to October 20, 2025, a total of 14 healthcare companies applied to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for IPO listing materials within a month, doubling the number compared to the same period. What does this phenomenon indicate? What causes it? Among the IPO companies, there are also several A-share companies. Why are these companies seeking Hong Kong listings at this time? What are the benefits of listing in multiple locations?   Li Qian, Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan's Healthcare Business Unit in Greater China, was interviewed by SinoBiz to discuss the key factors accelerating Hong Kong healthcare IPOs . SinoBiz *Click at the end of the article Read the original article for a complete report   Q: According to information published on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website, from September 20 to October 20, 2025, a total of 14 healthcare companies applied to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for IPO listing materials within a month, doubling the number compared to the same period. What does this phenomenon indicate? What causes it? Li Qian Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan's Healthcare Business Unit in Greater China   This phenomenon is driven by both internal and external factors. Firstly, there is the window period effect. Recently, there have been signs of improved liquidity and investor confidence recovery. Coupled with a series of reforms promoted by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, such as 'dual-currency settlement', 'lowering the threshold for new shares', and 'simplifying the review process', these have all increased the predictability of corporate listings. Many healthcare companies choose to 'grab the window' during this stage and complete financing before the capital market sentiment warms up; secondly, companies themselves have financing and internationalization demands. After preliminary pipeline research and development or product iteration, many companies enter the late clinical or commercialization stage, with a significant increase in capital needs. The international nature of the Hong Kong market makes it an important platform for Chinese innovative healthcare companies to raise funds overseas and gain international exposure. Finally, there is an adjustment in capital strategy. When the valuation rebounds, the market game space is reopened. Many early investors who experienced exit obstacles in the past two years are now urgently seeking some liquidity through IPOs after the market warming signals appear.   Q: Among the IPO companies, there are also several A-share companies. Why are these companies seeking Hong Kong listings at this time? What are the benefits of listing in multiple locations? Li Qian Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan's Healthcare Business Unit in Greater China   Recently, many healthcare companies that have already listed on the A-share market have also chosen to go to Hong Kong for their second listing, which mainly reflects new considerations in financing and international layout. On the one hand, the policy environment in the Hong Kong market has improved, the review pace has accelerated, and it is more inclusive of innovative and research and development-oriented enterprises, providing new financing channels for companies; on the other hand, compared with the A-share market, the Hong Kong market has a more mature international investor base and a valuation system for innovative drugs and medical devices, which helps companies gain recognition and pricing from international capital. In addition, listing in multiple locations can also enhance a company's global visibility and governance structure transparency, creating conditions for its overseas market expansion, mergers and acquisitions, and international cooperation. Overall, A+H or dual listings are not just financing activities but an important step for healthcare companies to establish a second growth pole in the global capital system and achieve long-term strategic upgrading. *This interview has been published in SinoBiz by Wang Yuling, with the original title: 17 companies in a month! Pharmaceutical companies intensively submit applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, what's the reason?

  Frost & Sullivan's Insights Large models are emerging from the pilot phase and entering the stage of large-scale implementation. In which scenarios or directions is this large-scale implementation mainly occurring? AI applications have entered the agent stage, but there are still no killer applications on the consumer side. Which will see faster adoption rates between the B-side and C-side? What are the characteristics of B-side implementation? Overall, what challenges remain for AI implementation? From the pilot phase to large-scale implementation, has the AI application reached a critical turning point? What are the criteria for judgment?   Li Qing, Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, was interviewed by Lookout Finance to discuss the key trends and industry variables in the transition of large models from pilot to large-scale implementation . Lookout Finance *Click on the end of the article Read the original article to view the complete report   Q: The report mentions that large models are emerging from the pilot phase and entering the stage of large-scale implementation. In which scenarios or directions is this large-scale implementation mainly occurring? Can you use digital human technology as an example to briefly describe the application situation, especially in terms of replacing real people and real-time interaction? What are the obstacles to the implementation of digital human technology? Li Qing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China   Large models are transitioning from the pilot verification phase to large-scale implementation, with their core value lying in 'improving quality and efficiency'. Currently, large-scale implementation is mainly reflected in several major scenarios: the highest proportion is 'question-answering enhancement', followed by 'code assistants', 'document processing generation', and 'intelligent customer service'. In addition, industries such as finance, government affairs, and manufacturing are also accelerating the deployment of RAG, industry agents, and digital employees. Currently, the core obstacle to technology implementation is no longer cost but higher-dimensional strategic and application challenges, with the most prominent being 'unclear application scenarios that can generate real value', followed by 'lack of relevant technical talent', 'difficulty in ensuring data security and privacy', and 'difficulty in integrating with existing business systems and workflows of enterprises'.   Digital human technology is being widely applied in scenarios such as customer service, virtual anchors, online education, and corporate image endorsements. In terms of replacing real people, it has achieved a high degree of natural voice, expression, and body movement simulation, especially in standardized and repetitive real-time interactions, where it is stable and efficient. Taking Alibaba as an example, its 'digital human' technology has formed a strategic combination of 'cloud capabilities + Taobao implementation'. At the technical level, Alibaba Cloud provides an open platform for virtual digital humans, supporting text and audio-driven generation, supplemented by a low-threshold free experience; at the business level, Taobao Live has opened public domain interfaces to service providers, which has promoted the launch of nearly a hundred digital human live streaming rooms and brought an average viewing increase of about 5 times. Combining with the platform's potential energy of breaking through 1 billion views during the 618 period, a year-on-year increase of 53%, digital human e-commerce and store broadcasts are accelerating their popularization. However, large-scale implementation of digital human technology still faces major obstacles, including how to balance generation quality and cost, break through technical bottlenecks driven by real-time, clarify ethical regulatory responsibilities, and establish user trust.   Q: AI applications have entered the agent stage, but there are still no killer applications on the consumer side. Which will see faster adoption rates between the B-side and C-side? What are the characteristics of B-side implementation? Overall, what challenges remain for AI implementation? (For example, factors such as model hallucination, application cost, effectiveness, and enterprise acceptance can be analyzed) Li Qing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China   B-side implementation shows clear characteristics: the focus of enterprise decision-making is shifting from 'pursuing the strongest single model' to 'seeking optimal solutions for specific business scenarios'. This means that the market has entered a new stage of 'value-driven' over 'technology-driven', with enterprises placing more emphasis on scenario fit and commercial value, and their needs evolving into 'flexible integration + technology autonomy and control' solutions to balance cost-effectiveness, flexibility, and security and controllability. In terms of implementation challenges, the biggest obstacle is 'unclear application scenarios that can generate real value', followed by 'lack of relevant technical talent' and 'data security and privacy' issues. It is worth noting that enterprise acceptance is also an obstacle, and 'high training and inference costs' are no longer the primary pain point, accounting for a low proportion.   Q: From the pilot phase to large-scale implementation, has the AI application reached a critical turning point? What are the criteria for judgment? Li Qing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China   Yes, AI application implementation has reached a critical turning point, transitioning from the pilot verification phase into a new stage of large-scale implementation. The main criteria for judgment are threefold: 1. First is the 'explosive increase' in call volume. In the first half of 2025, the average daily call volume of Chinese enterprise-level large models reached 1018.65 billion tokens, a surge of about 363% compared to the second half of 2024, marking the full release of market demand. 2. Second is the shift in market focus, with the industry transitioning from 'technology-driven' to 'value-driven', and market attention shifting from 'extreme performance competition' to 'equal emphasis on scenario fit and commercial value'. 3. Finally, the core pain points faced by enterprises have undergone a structural change, and enterprises have entered the 'deep water zone'. The main obstacles have shifted from high costs in the past to 'unclear application scenarios' and 'difficulty in system integration', indicating that enterprises have passed the technology trial phase and begun to face the challenges of deep integration.   Q: From the perspective of model call volume, what are the characteristics of the industry pattern? What factors determine model call volume? How significant are the impacts of factors such as open source and AI ecosystems? In the future, will there be an increasing focus on leading players like Alibaba, ByteDance, DeepSeek, etc.? If a latecomer wants to catch up, from which directions should they strive? Li Qing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China   From the perspective of model call volume, the industry pattern shows a highly concentrated feature, with the advantages of domestic manufacturers 'accelerating solidification'. Alibaba Tongyi (17.7%), ByteDance DouPao (14.1%), and DeepSeek (10.3%) together account for more than 40%. The key factors determining call volume lie in the ecosystem and differentiated strategies: Alibaba Tongyi relies on its 'integrated deployment capabilities' and the delivery closed loop formed by Alibaba Cloud's foundation and PAI platform; ByteDance DouPao transforms enterprise-level large model calls through rapid iteration and layout of application construction platforms such as Coze and HiAgent; DeepSeek quickly breaks through with high cost-effectiveness and open source compatibility. At the same time, the impact of open source and ecosystems is extremely profound, and open source is becoming the preferred path for enterprise model selection. Driven by TCO pressure and data sovereignty demands, up to 70% of enterprises plan to increase open source models more in the future.   Given the agglomeration effect of top talents, high capital investment barriers, and computing infrastructure barriers, the future market pattern is expected to further converge towards leading manufacturers. Latecomers face extremely high competitive barriers and find it extremely difficult to catch up. If they seek a breakthrough, they need to deeply cultivate in niche tracks, such as in private deployment operation and maintenance response capabilities, in-depth customization of industry solutions, and the accumulation of expertise in vertical fields to build differentiated advantages. *This interview has been published in Lookout Finance. The reporter is Liu Baodan, and the original title is: Baidu's AI Transformation, at a Critical juncture

Insights from Frost & Sullivan Price wars are the main theme of the ready-to-drink tea industry in 2024, reflecting a phase shift from rapid growth to competition for existing market share. In 2025, subsidies from food delivery platforms further pushed down the prices of ready-to-drink tea into extremely low ranges. However, using price to gain traffic is not a long-term strategy. As the concept of new tea drinks becomes less novel, ready-to-drink tea has begun to transition from an incremental market to a saturated one. In the future, whether ready-to-drink tea brands can widen the gap with their peers in terms of supply chain, health concepts, and brand mentalities will be key to success. From the perspective of supply chain capabilities, is the trend of the ready-to-drink beverage industry more likely to reflect product differentiation or homogenization? What is the underlying driving logic? What types of beverages are consumers more likely to drink? Brands like Starbucks and Bawang Tea Girl adhere to a strategy of focusing on value rather than price. In what other core dimensions may competition continue in the ready-to-drink beverage industry in the future?   Lu Siyi, consulting manager for Frost & Sullivan Greater China, was interviewed by CBN magazine to discuss how tea brands should focus their efforts in the next phase. CBN magazine *Click on the end of the article Read the original article for a complete report     Q: From the perspective of supply chain capabilities, is the trend of the ready-to-drink beverage industry more likely to reflect product differentiation or homogenization? What is the underlying driving logic? What types of beverages are consumers more likely to drink? Lu Siyi Consulting Manager for Consumer Industry at Frost & Sullivan Greater China   My view is that the development of the supply chain in the ready-to-drink beverage industry is undergoing an evolution from 'having' to 'excellent' and then to 'unique'.   Basic supply chain capabilities are gradually becoming industry standard, especially for leading companies, but on the other hand, this may indeed lead to homogenized competition in mid-range products; however, through deep integration and innovation of the supply chain at the source level using technology, it will become the core key for leading brands to build true differentiation and win the market.   Overall, supply chain and product innovation are not contradictory. The focus of the supply chain is to improve efficiency, ensuring cost efficiency during product updates and iterations. As leading brands build their strong supply chains, it will indeed have a significant impact on small brands in terms of costs, which is an inevitable law of industry development. Some distinctive brands may still create some explosive products and new features in the future, but due to a lack of supply chain capabilities, if they cannot monopolize raw materials and other links, it is inevitable that large brands will use their supply chain advantages to launch similar products.   At the same time, we believe that when considering this issue, it is worth noting what consumers' needs are, whether they are for continuous differentiated products or after finding their favorite products, focusing on these signature products. We also see that some specific brands' strategy is to focus on their core flagship products and not innovate for the sake of innovation, but they can still attract a loyal core consumer base.   The underlying driving logic behind this is mainly divided into two parts.   Internally, it is driven by efficiency and cost. Industry competition has shifted from the number of stores to single-store profitability and operational efficiency. A complete supply chain is the foundation for reducing costs and increasing efficiency while maintaining quality, which will inevitably lead to convergence in basic capabilities;   Externally, it is driven by the upgrading of consumer demand. Consumers pursue healthier, fresher, more diverse, and more experiential beverages. This forces brands to trace upstream. To meet these advanced needs, they must rely on differentiated supply chain capabilities.   Therefore, based on the trend of supply chain evolution, consumers will not only be more likely to drink basic beverages with stable quality and high cost-effectiveness in the future, but they will also have the opportunity to taste more unique, healthy, and experiential new beverages brought about by deep supply chain innovation. Referring to the coffee industry, after the integration of specific origin labels and special fruits, it is still expected to become one of the representative directions of industry innovation.   Q: Consumers are increasingly concerned about 'drinking healthily'. In the future, will ready-to-drink beverages lean more towards using 'natural raw materials' or 'industrialized raw materials'? Lu Siyi Consulting Manager for Consumer Industry at Frost & Sullivan Greater China   From industry observation, the choice of raw materials for ready-to-drink beverages in the future is not simply a binary choice but moving towards a new stage of deep integration of 'natural value orientation' and 'industrial technology empowerment'. Using industrial technology to ensure efficient supply of natural raw materials represents the development direction of the industry.   Consumers' pursuit of health functions has made natural raw materials an unshakable value core. We see that 'real milk and real fruits', ingredients that are both food and medicine (such as goji berries), and the concept of sugar reduction have become key to brand competitiveness. Behind this is consumers' high sensitivity to ingredient transparency and health attributes.   However, pure agricultural product forms are difficult to meet the stringent requirements of brands at the store level for stability, efficiency, and scale. Therefore, the industry is leveraging advanced food industrial technology to achieve industrialized expressions of natural raw materials. For example, through technologies such as freeze-drying and modern extraction, high-quality fresh fruits and tea are transformed into standardized raw materials (such as freeze-dried tea powder and cold extract) that are stable in flavor, convenient for transportation, and storage. This not only retains natural flavors and nutritional components but also ensures consistency and efficient operation across thousands of stores. Ultimately, consumers will enjoy beverages with both health attributes, stable taste, and innovative flavors. The winners in the future will be those brands that can maximize the presentation of natural raw material values using industrial technology.   Q: Since February this year, coffee futures prices have experienced a trend of first soaring, then correcting, and maintaining high levels. Will consumers face price increases when buying ready-to-drink coffee in the future? Lu Siyi Consulting Manager for Consumer Industry at Frost & Sullivan Greater China   Looking at the current dynamics of the futures market and the industry side, consumers will indeed feel a certain pressure of price increase when buying ready-to-drink coffee in the future, but currently, there has been no widespread increase.   The factors behind this are as follows:   Firstly, cost pressure continues to be transmitted. Coffee futures prices reached a high at the beginning of 2025. Although they have recently corrected, affected by the climate and planting cycles of major global producing areas, the medium- and long-term cost center of coffee beans has been raised, making it difficult to return to the pre-increase price level in the short term   Secondly, there is price differentiation among different types of brands. Leading brands with strong supply chains and long-term agreements (such as Luckin Coffee and Starbucks) will buffer the pressure through large-scale procurement and digital operations. At the same time, considering their huge store and consumer base scales, an obvious price increase may have an impact on sales, and these brands tend to make invisible price adjustments, such as reducing discount intensity or guiding consumers to new products with higher profits. However, for small and independent coffee shops with limited procurement scales, a direct price increase may be the most direct means of survival.   Therefore, consumers may find in the future that they will have fewer opportunities to enjoy extremely affordable (below 10 yuan) freshly ground coffee, but the price increases for mainstream products in the general market range are controllable; while paying a higher premium for specialty coffee or special blends with high-quality beans or complex ingredients will become more common, and the prices of niche specialty coffees may experience a certain degree of increase.   Q: Brands like Starbucks and Bawang Tea Girl adhere to a strategy of focusing on value rather than price. In what other core dimensions may competition continue in the ready-to-drink beverage industry in the future? Lu Siyi Consulting Manager for Consumer Industry at Frost & Sullivan Greater China   My view is that the competition in the ready-to-drink beverage industry in the future will completely transcend simple price wars and turn into a value war across four core dimensions: deep supply chain, cultural innovation, global layout, and digital operations.   Firstly, the supply chain is the foundation: The focus of competition has upgraded to source locking of high-quality raw material producing areas globally and extreme optimization of distribution efficiency and freshness, which determines the upper limits of quality, cost, and stability.   Secondly, product innovation needs to be combined with cultural empowerment. Successful new products in the future need to deeply integrate regional culture or provide clear health functions (such as probiotics and natural herbs) to provide consumers with emotional and value experiences that go beyond thirst quenching.   Furthermore, brand globalization. Going global is also an output of cultural soft power. Brands need to choose a differentiated path, such as Bawang Tea Girl creating an Eastern aesthetic space in high-end markets in Europe and America, deeply binding their brand image with the East, and supporting positioning and premium through the brand.   Finally, there is digital competition. Through AI and big data for precise operations, marketing through digital tools, product innovation guidance, and building a private domain traffic pool for the brand to improve repurchase rates and product competitiveness.   Q: How do new tea drink brands mobilize consumer emotions? Which strategies are effective and which are likely to fail? Which are long-term mental strategies and which are short-term strategies? Lu Siyi Consulting Manager for Consumer Industry at Frost & Sullivan Greater China   My view is that the core of new tea drink brands in mobilizing consumer emotions is to upgrade from 'function satisfaction' to 'emotional resonance'. Whether a strategy is effective or not depends on whether it is sincere and systematic.   Effective emotional mobilization is rooted in an excellent product experience, a resonant cultural narrative, and a user relationship that is treated sincerely. Brands need to become 'value co-creators' and 'cultural interpreters'.   Short-term effective strategies usually involve creating immediate surprises and social topics of conversation, such as limited-time collaborations with popular film IPs or celebrities, launching high-profile peripherals, or launching viral challenges. However, if these strategies are executed improperly, such as marketing without supply chain support, rigid collaborations that do not match the brand's tone, and short-term price wars that damage brand value, they are very likely to fail and even backfire on the brand.   The strategy that can truly settle users and build a long-term brand mentalities is to internalize emotional value as part of the brand. This is reflected in three aspects: First, the product is emotion, such as through unique naming (such as 'Bo Ya's Farewell'), healthy concepts (without trans fats), and familiar flavors (such as nostalgic gardenia flowers), making the product itself a soothing, confident, or healing emotional carrier. Second, cultural resonance, where the brand becomes a symbol for consumers to express their cultural identity and self-identity. Finally, user co-creation, sincerely listening to feedback and quickly iterating (such as Bawang Tea Girl launching the low-cause series of teas according to user demands), establishing a sense of belonging where consumers are valued and maintaining a high repurchase rate through long-term strategies to win hearts.   *This interview has been published in CBN magazine, with reporter Lu Yanjun, and the original title is: Ready-to-Drink Tea: The Future's Competition Lies in Strong Supply Chains, Healthy Concepts, and Emotional Resonance

Frost & Sullivan insight What is the overall scale and development stage of the current Chinese beverage industry? What proportion does juice account for in it? What role does it play? What is the overall scale of the current Chinese pure juice (including FC and NFC) market? What changes have taken place in the competitive landscape of this market over the past few decades? What is the expected compound growth rate of the juice category in the next few years? How should this track be defined? For juice brands, which part should be emphasized more in building upstream and sales channels? Is it necessary and essential for brands to invest heavily in upstream construction?   Executive Director Cai Jinfeng of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, interviewed by Southern Weekend, discussed the upgrade of the juice industry and the structural growth opportunities for pure juice . Southern Weekend *Click on the end of the article Read the original article for a complete report   Q: What is the overall scale and development stage of the current Chinese beverage industry? What proportion does juice account for in it? What role does it play? Cai Jinfeng Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China   In recent years, the overall scale of China's soft drink industry has continued to expand, growing from about 986.7 billion yuan in 2020 to about 1,206.6 billion yuan in 2024. Currently, China's soft drink industry has entered a new stage of structural upgrade and quality improvement from a rapid growth phase, with consumers' demand for healthy, natural, and functional beverages significantly increasing.   As an important segment of the beverage industry, as of 2024, the market size of Chinese juice was about 158.4 billion yuan, accounting for about 13% of the overall soft drink market. In recent years, the juice category has also been improving quality and upgrading simultaneously, with significant growth in the pure juice category. Juice in the soft drink market is gradually shifting from a "quenching" beverage to a "healthy and nutritious" beverage, playing the role of representing consumption upgrade and quality life.   Q: What is the overall scale of the current Chinese pure juice (including FC and NFC) market? What changes have taken place in the competitive landscape of this market over the past few decades? Cai Jinfeng Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China   In 2024, the market size of Chinese pure juice (including FC and NFC) was about 36.7 billion yuan, accounting for about 23% of the overall juice market. Over the past few decades, the pure juice market has evolved from being dominated by foreign investment to a rise of domestic brands and then to a diversified competitive landscape.   In the early days, the Chinese beverage market was mainly composed of soda beverages and fruit-flavored beverages. At the beginning of 1986, local Chinese juice brands began to emerge, such as Coconut Tree Coconut Juice and Tianjin Orange Treasure Orange Juice, symbolizing the vigorous development of the domestic juice industry. After 1990, local brands such as Huiyuan and Nongfu Spring rapidly expanded through channel penetration and cost-effective strategies; in addition, Cool Kids, Unifree Fresh Orange Multi, and Meiji Juice also actively laid out their markets on the Chinese mainland; since 2010, with the continuous upgrading and popularization of sterilization technology, brands such as Weiquan, Zero Degree Fruit House, and Daily Fresh have promoted high-end upgrades, presenting a dual-track parallel pattern of "FC popularization and NFC high-endization" in the market. Currently, the market has gradually shifted from single-price competition to comprehensive competition in terms of quality, technology, and brand experience.   Q: For example, what is Huiyuan's market share in the pure juice segment? Compared with competitors such as Weiquan and Nongfu Spring, what are its strengths and weaknesses? Cai Jinfeng Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China   Huiyuan still occupies a relatively leading position in the mid- to high-concentration juice and FC pure juice markets. At the supply chain end, Huiyuan has an integrated ability from planting to production and processing, and has a first-mover advantage in the layout of upstream fruit planting. In terms of product dimension, Huiyuan has a comprehensive coverage of juice concentration and taste in the juice track, but its production method is single, mainly concentrated and reduced; Huiyuan's juice products are mostly single-branded, with competitive unit retail prices, rich juice categories, and a wide price range, but the application and development process of new technologies is relatively slow, failing to quickly capture the trend of consumption upgrade;   In terms of channel structure, Huiyuan's online channels and CVS channels are inferior to competitors such as Nongfu Spring and Unifree, mainly relying on the comprehensive operation of dealers' KA supermarkets and direct company channel layout. At the marketing strategy level, Nongfu Spring, Weiquan, etc. have established relatively mature brand and channel coverage in the market, with obvious marketing and channel expansion, but Huiyuan's marketing activities are relatively conservative, and its layout in the new retail and convenience store system is weak.   In contrast, Weiquan's refrigerated FC series products have quickly established a reputation among urban white-collar consumers through convenience store scenario layout; Nongfu Spring has successfully captured the high-end market with its "100% NFC" series and full-channel marketing, and is better at brand rejuvenation and product creation.   Q: What is the expected compound growth rate of the juice category in the next few years? How should this track be defined? Cai Jinfeng Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China   It is expected that from 2024 to 2029, the annual compound growth rate of the Chinese juice market will remain at a low single-digit growth rate, but the growth rate of the pure juice category is expected to reach nearly 10%, significantly higher than the overall industry.   We define the juice track as a "structural growth track driven by health upgrade". It is no longer a traditional soft drink branch, and the consumption of low-concentration juice will continue to decline; in order for the juice market to integrate high-potential categories such as healthy consumption, quality life, and diversified scenario combinations. Future growth mainly comes from increased consumption frequency, price increase, and diversified categories.   Q: For juice brands, which part should be emphasized more in building upstream and sales channels? Is it necessary and essential for brands to invest heavily in upstream construction? Cai Jinfeng Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China   Today's juice production technology has become increasingly mature, but strict control over raw materials and the adoption of more advanced production processes remain the competitive advantages of current mainstream brands. Upstream construction is a "necessary but not sufficient" condition, which ensures product differentiation and supply chain security, but without strong channel and brand capabilities, it is difficult to achieve large-scale commercial success. Therefore, we believe that the "strong upstream control + wide channel coverage + strong brand awareness" three-wheel drive will be the most core competitiveness of brands. *This interview has been published in Southern Weekend, with reporter Mei Ling, and the original title was: 'Loving Each Other and Killing Each Other' with Capital - Huiyuan's Repeated Battle with Major Shareholders