10month25Today, Shanghai announced the launch of inhalation COVID-19 vaccination. The vaccine is a recombinant novel coronavirus vaccine for inhalation developed by CanSino Biologics, and9month4Rizatriptan has been included as an emergency use drug in a revised dosing regimen.10month28day, throughoutAAmidst a chorus of wails, CanSino, with the posture of a single red dot amidst thousands of greens, led the vaccine sector to become almost the only one with positive gains. And in just3God, the entire market witnessed CanSino BiologicsAThe stock price soared40%.
What is the current market expectation for booster shots? Will COVID-19 booster vaccines be similar to influenza vaccines in the future? What have vaccine companies gained from the COVID-19 dividend period? What changes have taken place in the vaccine industry? After the COVID-19 dividend period, what other key areas of vaccine companies are worth paying attention to and looking forward to? Frost & SullivanFrost & SullivanZhu Yi, Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, was interviewed by 'Shenzhen Blue Perspective' to discuss the current situation and future development trends of the COVID-19 vaccine market.
Deep Blue View
Q
What is the current market expectation for booster shots? Will COVID-19 booster vaccines be similar to influenza vaccines in the future? Should high-risk groups receive regular vaccinations or a nationwide mass rollout?
（1The Omicron variant is still mutating, and we are not certain about its mutation direction or the risks it poses after mutation. At present, we do not have the ability to completely eradicate the virus. Therefore, it can be predicted that if the Omicron variant continues to mutate and spread on a large scale, the penetration rate of booster shots will continue to increase. Coupled with the need for annual re-vaccination, the market size is expected to expand continuously.
（2As for whether the COVID-19 booster vaccine will be similar to the flu vaccine, this will depend on the mutation rate and pattern of the novel coronavirus. If the virus continues to mutate rapidly and the protection provided by existing vaccines becomes ineffective, there may be a need in the future to receive regular booster shots like those for the flu vaccine.
（3The epidemic prevention and control work is carried out in an orderly manner. The 'booster shot' vaccination campaign was first launched among key populations, high-risk occupations, and key job positions, and then gradually extended to other groups. Currently according to7month23According to a press conference by the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council, as of now, the cumulative first-dose vaccination coverage rate of COVID-19 vaccines in China is92.1%, vaccination coverage rate for the entire process89.7%, Strengthening immunization rates71.7%.
Q
Some vaccine experts say that it doesn't make much sense to launch a COVID-19 vaccine for preventing severe illness now. Vaccines for preventing infection have more market opportunities. What's your opinion?
Currently, for most of the COVID-19 vaccines that have been launched and are under research, their effectiveness in preventing severe illness and death is generally higher than that in preventing symptomatic infection. For example, Sinovac (Sinovac BiotechSecond dose of vaccination14Postpartum, effective rate of symptomatic infection prevention:58.49%and prevent death,ICUThe effective rates are86.38%,89.68%; Pfizer vaccine, second dose14Postpartum, the effective rate of symptomatic infection prevention is87.69%and prevent death,ICUThe effective rates are as follows:100%,98.29%.
Therefore, it is undeniable that improving the vaccine's effectiveness against infection can meet the current clinical unmet needs of the COVID-19 pandemic and has significant market potential. However, at the same time, COVID-19 vaccines for preventing severe illness also play an irreplaceable role, greatly reducing the disease burden and presenting certain market opportunities.
Q
Some vaccine R&D companies such as Watson and ZF Bio are also actively deploying second-generation vaccines targeting new strains. What are their motivations and expectations?
Wason's second-generation vaccine, designed and developed against novel coronavirus variants, encoding the full-lengthSProtein chimera-based innovative broad-spectrum COVID-19 vaccinemRNAvaccine.
Due to the currentCOVID-19The virus is still mutating continuously, and there is a possibility that the protective effect provided by existing vaccines may become ineffective. Therefore, companies including Watson and ZF Bio will actively deploy second-generation vaccines targeting new strains in order to cover the main immune escape mutation sites of various variants and achieve better protection against COVID-19.
In the future, although the vaccination rate against COVID-19 will decline compared to last year, there is still a certain market for booster shots based on new technology routes targeting new strains, as deployed by companies such as Watson and ZhiFei. These booster shots also offer certain profit opportunities.
Q
If a company develops a bivalent vaccine based on the existing monovalent vaccine, would its investment cost be relatively lower? Correspondingly, would there be a larger profit margin?
If it is based on the same technology platform/The development of bivalent vaccines for routes, based on the existing monovalent vaccines, is understood to have relatively lower investment costs. This can reduce some initial research and development expenditures, production platform investments, and sales channel development. However, the production cost and research and development difficulty of bivalent vaccines are generally greater than those of monovalent vaccines, and their profit margin still depends on specific circumstances.
Q
It is understood that among the companies that made early investments in COVID-19 vaccines, only Wantai Biotech has not continued its efforts in this area. What do you think of Wantai Biotech's decision?
Currently, as the pandemic continues and the virus mutates continuously with decreasing toxicity, people's demand for vaccines is showing a gradual decline trend. Therefore, the vaccine market has entered the second half, with new competitive directions mainly focusing on vaccines against variant strains, those with better efficacy, and those that are more convenient to use.
The choice of Wantai Biotech is mainly based on the company's own strategic layout direction. However, recently, Wantai Biotech's nasal COVID-19 vaccine has completed the interim primary data analysis of Phase III clinical trials and obtained key data. This indicates that Wantai Biotech has not withdrawn from the COVID-19 vaccine market.
Q
What do you think vaccine companies have gained from the COVID-19 dividend period? What changes have taken place in the vaccine industry?
Looking at the overall vaccine industry, benefiting from the COVID-19 dividend period, the global vaccine market size has grown from2016year275Billion USD increased to2020year365billion dollars,accounts for the total global pharmaceutical market2.8%The annual compound growth rate is7.3%. China is2020The world's second-largest vaccine market, accounting for a share of31.7%Driven by the increased accessibility of innovative vaccines, favorable government policies, vaccine technology innovation, and enhanced vaccination awareness, the scale of the Chinese vaccine market has2016year271RMB 10 billion increased to2020year753100 billion RMB, with an annual compound growth rate of29.10%.
From the perspective of vaccine companies,1) Thanks to the COVID-19 dividend period, enterprises have accumulated huge cash flows, which is crucial for their development. The financial report shows that the net operating cash flow of Kangtai Biology decreased compared with the same period last year4922Ten thousand has increased to1.07100 million, a year-on-year increase118.98%The semi-annual report of Sinopharm also shows that Sinopharm has total cash flow77.68100 million yuan.2In addition, COVID-19 pandemicThe epidemic has promoted global demand for COVID-19 vaccines and, to some extent, accelerated the development of pharmaceutical companies in related innovative technologies. such asmRNAVaccine research and development, as well as technological breakthroughs.3) At the same time, benefiting from the COVID-19 dividend period, Domestic vaccine companies are also gradually entering the international market. For example, recently, the novel coronavirus from WuhanmRNAThe vaccine has obtained an emergency use authorization from the Indonesian National Food and Drug Administration for18People aged one year and above can prevent COVID-19 through active immunization. This is Indonesia's first COVID-19 vaccine that will be locally produced.mRNAVaccine, which is also the first COVID-19 vaccine independently developed in China and approved for overseas marketingmRNAvaccine.
Q
After the COVID-19 dividend period, what other key areas of vaccine companies are worth paying attention to and looking forward to?
As the pandemic continues, the virus is constantly mutating and its toxicity is decreasing, leading to a gradual decline in demand for vaccines. Additionally, vaccination has gradually reached saturation, and the reduction in revenue from original vaccines is inevitable. However, there are also opportunities within the crisis. In the second half of the vaccine race, vaccines targeting variants, those with better efficacy, and those that are more convenient to use will be new competitive directions.
*This interview was published on the WeChat official account "Shenzhen Blue Observation". Reporter: Wu Ni. Original title: "A Kangxieno, Can't Save the Future of COVID-19 Vaccines?" （👈Click to read the original text directly).
