How do you view the impact of the three years of the pandemic on the industry? Will sectors such as nucleic acid testing, vaccines, and COVID-19 drugs gradually withdraw from the historical stage? Can the profitability of related pharmaceutical companies continue? How do you view 'the past2022Is the view that "the year is a cold winter for the industry"? What impact will the novel coronavirus have on the industry if it is treated as a "Class B, Level 2" disease? To sustain healthy development and emerge from the cold winter, what efforts are needed? In terms of medical insurance negotiations and volume-based procurement, has the price reduction trend become more moderate? Which tracks will still be affected by medical insurance negotiations or volume-based procurement? What suggestions are there for the transformation of domestic and foreign pharmaceutical companies?
Frost & SullivanFrost & SullivanMao Hua, Partner and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, was interviewed "Blue Whale Finance" Interview, joint discussion2023Annual development trends of the medical industry.
Blue Whale Finance
Q
How do you view the impact of the three years of the pandemic on the industry? Will sectors related to anti-pandemic measures such as nucleic acid testing, vaccines, and COVID-19 drugs gradually withdraw from the historical stage? Can the profitability of related pharmaceutical companies continue?
fattening
Partner and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China Region
The impact of the three-year COVID-19 pandemic on the healthcare industry has been tremendous. Market demand for medical protective products, disinfectants, nucleic acid testing kits, vaccines, and COVID-19 drugs has increased sharply. Relevant enterprises have expanded production capacity and increased investment in product research and development over these three years. However, with the recent optimization of national epidemic prevention policies, except for COVID-19 drugs, China's demand for related products and services has relatively decreased. After the recent peak of infections, the demand for COVID-19 drugs will gradually decline.
In the future, after the COVID-19 pandemic is controlled and stabilized, market demand for epidemic prevention products, nucleic acid tests, vaccines, and other products will gradually decrease until the demand level is comparable to that of other infectious diseases such as influenza A and B.
On the other hand, due to the enhanced public awareness of infectious disease prevention and the emergence of various new infectious diseases globally in recent years, nucleic acid testing and vaccines remain important means for detecting and preventing infectious diseases, and market demand will continue. After the peak infection period, the national demand for COVID-19 antigen test kits and other products will gradually decrease, and there are already many approved antigen test kits on the market, which may lead to a decline in revenue from this segment of COVID-19 test kits.
Q
past2022Some people believe it is a winter for the industry this year. What's your view? Has the industry already emerged from the winter?
fattening
Partner and Managing Director, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
Just past2022In mid-year, multiple cities across the country implemented epidemic prevention and control measures such as lockdowns and social distancing. Cities came to a halt, factories shut down, and entry and exit became difficult. This has brought inconvenience to enterprises in carrying out various tasks, and there is an 'cold winter' period for all industries.
However, as the country2022At the end of the year, continuous optimization of COVID-19 prevention and control measures was carried out, and entry-exit management conditions were relaxed. This is a favorable policy for all industries.2023In the year, industry development and exchanges will be greatly reduced due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. China's economy will enter a stage of rapid recovery and development, and the industry will gradually emerge from the cold winter.
Q
The novel coronavirus has become a 'Category B, Managed at Level 2'. What impact do you think it will have on the industry? For the health industry to continue developing in a healthy manner and emerge from the winter slump, what efforts do you think are needed?
fattening
Partner and Managing Director, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
The novel coronavirus will be classified as 'Category B with Level 2 Management,' marking that the state deems its harm to humans reduced in terms of institutional procedures and no longer requires strict management as a Class A infectious disease. China will gradually return to its normal economic and living state before the COVID-19 pandemic. For the healthcare industry, in the future, China's focus on the novel coronavirus will shift from epidemic prevention and control to disease treatment. There is still a significant demand for COVID-19 antigen testing and epidemic prevention items at this stage.
For non-COVID-related medical sub-industries, their R&D cooperation or production expansion was limited by the pandemic in the previous three years. Now, with the optimization of epidemic prevention policies, industries have seized the opportunity to accelerate the deployment of R&D and production work. For industries such as nucleic acid testing and the R&D and production of epidemic prevention items, due to policy changes, market demand will rapidly shrink. Enterprises can use relevant technology platforms to expand product or disease areas, enrich their own R&D and production pipelines, accelerate the construction of core technical barriers, and expand the potential market space for products.
Q
Which tracks or technologies do you see as having the most potential in the future?
fattening
Partner and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China Region
The future of vaccines will be an important and promising area.
Firstly, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past three years, public awareness of vaccines has greatly improved. In the face of infectious diseases, the public's acceptance of vaccination is relatively high. Secondly, in recent years, the COVID-19 vaccine has promoted the improvement of China's vaccine review and approval system, and the construction of China's vaccine management system has also continued to enhance. In recent years, there have been advancements in pneumonia vaccines,HPVIn areas such as vaccines and shingles, there have been some 'blockbuster' innovative vaccines worth billions of dollars, especiallyHPVAs soon as the vaccine was launched in China, it experienced a 'rarity' situation where 'one dose is hard to come by'. Domestic vaccine manufacturers are also accelerating their related research and development efforts to seize the high-growth opportunities in the vaccine industry.
In addition, in the post-pandemic era, there will be an increased focus on new cell and gene therapies. Their technologies and preparation processes are significantly different from traditional small molecule and large molecule drugs, offering unique therapeutic advantages for some complex and refractory diseases. National policies and capital enthusiasm are driving their rapid development, with expectations for more good technologies and products to enter the market.
Q
In terms of medical insurance negotiations and volume-based procurement, has the price reduction trend become more moderate in recent years? Will it have further impacts on the industry? Or rather, which tracks will still be affected by medical insurance negotiations or volume-based procurement?
fattening
Partner and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China Region
1month5Today, a new round of medical insurance negotiations officially commenced. This round of negotiations includes343The drug has officially passed the formal review. In recent years, there have been frequent reports of experts engaging in 'soul bargaining' during medical insurance negotiations and volume-based procurement. The trend of 'moderated price cuts' is influenced by various factors such as drug innovation costs, clinical value, and cost control needs.
Ensuring that ordinary people can access high-quality and affordable medicines is an important task of the Chinese government. During this healthcare negotiation, key areas included COVID-19 drugs, high-value rare disease medications, and new anti-tumor drugs. Pharmaceutical negotiations and volume-based procurement are related to the pricing and sales of relevant products. Whether a company successfully negotiates healthcare deals or obtains volume-based procurement not only affects the company itself but also has a significant impact on the entire industry.
Q
Both domestic and foreign-funded pharmaceutical companies are undergoing transformation. Have you noticed any new trends? What suggestions do you have for the transformation of domestic and foreign-funded pharmaceutical companies?
fattening
Partner and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China Region
Currently, digital transformation is a major trend in the transformation of pharmaceutical companies. The topic of the digital economy has been discussed for many years, and pharmaceutical companies can fully utilize the advantages of digital storage, real-time transmission, and efficient analysis. It can provide scientific decision-making support for enterprise data management and analysis, cost control, personnel management, and more. At the same time, emerging pharmaceutical e-commerce also relies on digitalization. The development of pharmaceutical e-commerce business can open up larger markets for pharmaceutical companies, which is conducive to market education and targeted promotion of products, bringing new growth drivers to the enterprise. Therefore, pharmaceutical companies should accelerate their own digital transformation, efficiently use digital tools, and further expand market space.
*This interview was published on Blue Whale Finance, with reporter Tu Jun as the lead contributor. The original title was "The 2023Annual Outlook|The healthcare industry may emerge from the winter slump, with vaccines potentially becoming a potential track to replace epidemic prevention products, and digital transformation accelerating further. >> (Click on "Read the Original Article" at the end of the text to view the full report).
