In recent years, among the many seasonal products, drifting across half the globe20,000Kilometers of Chilean cherries are considered top-notch, successfully occupying the Chinese dining tableCBit. What is the difference between cherries and plums? What is the market size of cherries? How much room for growth is there? Under what circumstances in the future could cherries become a cheap fruit like apples, bananas, and pears?
Frost & SullivanFrost & SullivanKang Jiaxing, a consulting analyst at Frost & Sullivan's Greater China region and referred to below as 'Frost & Sullivan', was interviewed by Titanium The "Huanan Live Room" program, and Originally, Bian Ning, General Manager of the Life Network Operation Center, and Zhou Zheyu, a senior import fruit buyer at Dingdong Grocery Shopping, Discuss the above topics together.
Titan Media
Q
From the perspectives of variety, quality, price, region, etc., recently5year-10What are the changes in fruit consumption during the Spring Festival each year? From an industry research perspective, what are the reasons for these changes?
Kangjiaxing
Consulting Analyst, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
Based on the fruit consumption data of the past five years, the changing trend shows characteristics such as an increasing diversity of fruit varieties, continuous improvement in fruit quality, and becoming more normalized importation.
I believe there are mainly two reasons:
1Consumption upgrade. China's rapid development over the past few years, along with a continuous trend of rising income, has driven people's consumption upgrade, leading to an increasing demand for high-quality fruits.
Thanks to this trend, high-quality fruit categories are particularly favored by the market. For example, the retail sales of durians2019Renminbi in [year]210RMB billion growth to2021Renminbi in [year]524Yuan, ranking first among imported fresh fruit categories in China, accounting for approximately31.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of57.7%It far exceeds the growth rate of other fruit categories. It is expected that in the next five years, durian, cherry, and mangosteen will still be among the top three fruits in terms of consumption growth rate among major fruit categories in China.
2Imported fruits are imported. Compared to domestic fruits, imported fruits can provide better taste and higher quality without being limited by climate or season.
The market scale of imported fruits in China, measured by retail value, has been2017year727RMB 10 billion, an increase of2021year1,640RMB 10 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of22.5%The growth rate is relatively fast. In terms of origin, Southeast Asia and Chile in the Southern Hemisphere have become the main sources of fresh fruits imported by China due to their tropical climate, off-season nature in the Southern Hemisphere, and favorable tariffs.2021In [year], the retail sales of imported fruits from Southeast Asia alone accounted for approximately63.2%.
Q
What is the market size of cherries? What is their market position among fruit categories? What is the future growth potential?
Kangjiaxing
Consulting Analyst, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
1Market scale: just2021In terms of annual consumption, the annual consumption of cherries in our country is about9010,000 tons, while the market launch time of domestic cherries is mostly concentrated in5 - 7In certain months, other months rely solely on imports, resulting in imported cherries typically being the main source of cherries during China's Spring Festival season.
According to public information, our country started as early as2021The annual import volume of cherries reached31Around [X] tons, of which imports from Chile accounted for about3010,000 tons, accounting for more than90%Due to the acceleration of customs clearance speed domestically after the lifting of restrictions, coupled with significant price cuts for imported cherries this year, it is expected that the domestic sales volume of Chilean cherries this year will exceed expectations3510,000 tons.
2Market position: In the past three years, imported cherries have always ranked at the top tier of fruits during the Spring Festival season. According to customs data, as early as2020In [year], the import value of imported cherries in China accounted for14.9%has become the second largest imported fruit in China.
although2022The statistical figures for the year have not been released yet, but based on data released from Guangzhou Jiangnan Wholesale Market, the largest wholesale market for fruits and vegetables in the country, this year's imported cherries have already accounted for20%As mentioned above, sales have been extremely brisk.
3(Growth space: 2018Year-end2022In the year, Chile's cherry exports18.7Ten thousand tons grew to35.610,000 tons, with a compound growth rate of17.46%But in fact,2019Year-end2021The year has already achieved a19Ten thousand tons to35Ten thousand tons multiplied by ten, of which for Chile itself, the proportion of exports to China has been increasing year by year, from2020It has stabilized at since90%Above. Due to the booming sales of cherries, both domestic and international production and imports have been increasing year by year, leading to a gradual decline in prices.
Although China has become the world's largest consumer and importer of cherries, per capita consumption is still relatively low. In the future, as the price of cherries continues to decline, demand for cherries will gradually spread from the Spring Festival and become affordable fruits in people's daily lives. By then, annual consumption of cherries is expected to exceed a new level.
Q
Who is the target market for cherries?
Kangjiaxing
Consulting Analyst, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
Based on online data,1) Looking at the gender ratio, it is probably male40%woman60%Proportion;2) By age group,25 - 34The proportion of young people aged is close to50%.3From the perspective of prefecture-level cities, people from first- and second-tier cities account for nearly half. However, the proportion of young consumers in third- and fourth-tier cities is also increasing year by year, indicating huge future consumption potential.
Based on offline conditions, offline consumers mainly purchase from vegetable and fruit markets' retail stores on a household basis, with a relatively scattered distribution.
Q
Even though 'cherries4The price has been halved annually, but many netizens say they can't afford it. Under what circumstances could cherries become an affordable fruit like apples, bananas, and pears in the future?
Kangjiaxing
Consulting Analyst, Greater China, Frost & Sullivan
1) Consumer habits and psychology: In recent years, the output of domestic cherries has been increasing continuously, while wholesale prices have also been falling.2015Year-end2019Annual average decline8.2%However, due to the consumption habits of Chinese consumers, who prefer to consume off-season cherries during the Spring Festival, and the general belief that imported cherries have better quality and taste than domestic ones, there is often a shortage of imported cherries in winter in China, leading to high prices for imported cherries.
2Technologies (off-season planting and storage): Since domestic cherries in China are generally concentrated in5—7The market is launched in certain months, while the rest rely on imports, which is also why cherries remain at high prices. Breakthroughs in off-season planting and storage techniques have the potential to bring about new situations.
