VacConThe 5th New Vaccine R&D and Industrialization Forum
2023year3month3 - 4day,VacConThe 5th New Vaccine R&D and Industrialization Forum grandly opened at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Wuhan Optics Valley.60+Experts from government regulatory agencies, scientific research experts, scientists, and leaders of leading enterprises in the field of new vaccine development will deliver exciting and engaging speeches and engage in lively discussions.1000+The core group of the vaccine industry gathered at this grand event to enthusiastically discuss the application and cases of cutting-edge innovative technologies, aiming to assist in the rapid development of China's vaccine industry.
"Hot Topics and Prospects in Vaccine Industrialization (Regulation/Internationalization) ” Several industry leaders in the vaccine sector will share their insights on the latest trends in immunization programs and vaccine research and development both domestically and internationally, and delve into the construction of international production quality and advanced production practices.
Frost & SullivanFrost & SullivanChen Zhenrong, Director of Healthcare Industry Consulting for Greater China at Frost & Sullivan (referred to as 'Frost & Sullivan'), was invited to attend the event and delivered a keynote speech on 'Research Report on the Current Development and Future Trends of the Human Vaccination Market'.
Frost & Sullivan Greater China Healthcare Industry Consulting Director Chen Zhenrong
Chen Zhenrong stated that before the founding of New China, there were only a few vaccines available in China for the prevention of severe infectious diseases such as cowpox and cholera. Due to poor economic and health conditions, frequent wars, and other adverse factors, large-scale and systematic vaccine production and immunization work across the country had not been carried out. 70Over the years, China has been vigorously promoting planned immunization. Especially after the reform and opening up, the introduction and deepening of market mechanisms in the vaccine industry have led to a rapid increase in the variety of vaccines produced in China. The vaccine industry has also entered a period of rapid development.
Looking at the development path of the vaccine industry in accordance with China's vaccination immunization program, it can be basically divided into the early stage of planned immunization, the period of planned immunization, the period of immunization program implementation, and the period of expanding the immunization program.2005The State Council's executive meeting in the year passed the 'Regulations on Vaccine Circulation and Immunization Administration', followed by the Ministry of Health's formulation of the 'Work Specifications for Immunization', which have been fully implemented with the national immunization program. With the development of the national economy and the continuous improvement of people's health needs, the scope of the immunization program has been continuously expanded.
Chen Zhenrong pointed out,2019In [year], the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress passed the Vaccine Administration Law of the People's Republic of China.2022In [year], the National Medical Products Administration issued the 'Regulations on the Administration of Vaccine Production and Distribution', further strengthening vaccine management, ensuring vaccine quality and supply, standardizing vaccination programs, promoting the development of the vaccine industry, protecting public health, and maintaining public health security. At the same time, China's vaccine industry has entered a period of standardized development and is gradually entering the harvest phase.
Chen Zhenrong believes that vaccines, as the most cost-effective and effective means of preventing and controlling infectious diseases, have also played an indispensable role in the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the benefits of pharmacoeconomics, technological innovation, increased public awareness and accessibility, as well as a series of favorable policies related to the vaccine industry, the development of the vaccine industry is booming. The number of clinical research studies on vaccines in China has rapidly increased, gradually narrowing the gap with the United States. More vaccines for different disease prevention using different technical approaches have moved from the clinical research pipeline to practical application. At present, the Chinese vaccine market is still dominated by Category II vaccines. In recent years, with the launch of blockbuster vaccines such as these, the overall batch release volume has also shown a rapid growth trend.
According toWHOstatistics,2021still in the year2,500Vast numbers of children have not received basic vaccinations, and there are significant disparities in the distribution of immunization resources between countries and within countries. There is a huge demand gap in the global human vaccine market. 2017The global market size of human vaccines is277billion dollars. And this number is to2021Year-on-year growth to460billion US dollars. It is expected that by2030Global vaccine market size could reach1,310billion dollars.
2021In the year, in terms of output value scale, the market scale of vaccines used by Chinese people was close to930100 million yuan, accounting for the proportion of the Chinese pharmaceutical market5.8%As China's vaccine industry enters the harvest phase, it is expected that the industry will enter a stage of rapid development.2030years. The output value scale of the vaccine market in China can reach3,386100 billion RMB, accounting for approximately the entire pharmaceutical market12.4%. Domestic vaccines are in the process of product upgrading, and more high-quality products will become available for selection in the future. As domestic companies continue to advance their research and development products, they will gradually replace existing imported vaccines with domestic ones.2022In [year], the World Health Organization announced that China had passed the assessment of the Vaccine National Immunization Programme, which will further stimulate China's vaccine exports to the world.
Chen Zhenrong said that there are some blockbuster vaccine varieties in Category 2 vaccines with significant market potential that deserve attention, includingHPVVaccines, including varicella-zoster vaccine, rabies vaccine, influenza vaccine, pneumococcal vaccine, etc.
First and foremost, it has been very popular in society in recent yearsHPVvaccine. 2020yearWHOThe 'Accelerated Elimination of Cervical Cancer Global Strategy' has been released, with nearly 200 countries including China committing to eliminating cervical cancer. This is also the first time in history that a cancer type has been pledged to be eradicated globally.HPVViruses can lead to various infections and may trigger cancers including cervical cancer, anal cancer, and head and neck cancer. They can cause immense physical and mental harm to patients.90%Cervical cancer is all caused byHPVCaused by a viral infection, thereforeHPVVaccination is also one of the core means to eradicate cervical cancer.
At the beginning of this year, ten departments including the National Health Commission jointly issued the 'Action Plan for Accelerating the Elimination of Cervical Cancer (2023 - 2030) Notice, which mentions domestic products that meet the requirementsHPVVaccines are being accelerated in approval and the standardized management of vaccination is strengthened. Currently, many provinces and cities in China have launched pilot programs, with local governments paying for the vaccination of eligible female populations.HPVvaccine.
In terms of the number of ongoing pipelines, China'sHPVThe number of vaccine research and development projects ranks first globally. Currently, two domestic bivalent vaccines are available.HPVVaccines have been approved and achieved rapid scale-up, with multiple domestically produced vaccines in different price tiersHPVVaccines are also about to be approved, and it is expected that there will continue to be a high level of growth in the future.
The second is the herpes zoster vaccine. The varicella-zoster virus is not unfamiliar to most people. Most of us may have been vaccinated against chickenpox or have had the disease as children. However, data shows that more than90%There are latent varicella-zoster viruses within this population, and the virus is likely to break out explosively when the human immune system is low. Moreover, post-herpetic neuralgia, that isPHNIt may bring very serious economic and psychological burdens.
And currentlyPHNThere are no very effective symptomatic treatment methods, so getting vaccinated against shingles is actually about preventing the occurrence and secondary complications of shingles.PNHThe most effective prevention method.GSKRecombinant herpes zoster vaccineShingrixTaking Xing'anlishi as an example, after vaccination50People over70The protection efficiency for people over [age] is as high as97.2%and91.3%Currently available domesticallyGSKThe recombinant zoster vaccine and the attenuated zoster vaccine developed by Baike Biotech have been approved for marketing. The vaccines under research cover attenuated live vaccines, recombinant proteins,mRNAAdeno-associated virus vector, four technical approaches.
From the perspective of clinical progress, it is expected that more domestic varicella-zoster vaccines will be approved for marketing in the future. Although in terms of the number of batches issued, varicella-zoster vaccine2021There was a reduction in the number in [year], However, it is expected that in the future, as more products are approved for market launch, public awareness improves, and vaccination rates continue to rise, the output value of the herpes zoster vaccine willvA rebounding trend.
In addition, an important focus for the zoster vaccine in China is the expansion of its applicable age range. When combining the herpes zoster vaccine withHPVWhen doing a comparative analysis of vaccines, it can be foundHPVThe actual vaccinated population and purchasers of the vaccine are within the same age range. Therefore, in market promotion,HPVThe awareness campaign targeting vaccine uptake is aimed at the same group of people.
But then looking at the herpes zoster vaccine,GSKThe current use of Tinosorb in China is limited to50Adults aged 65 and above constitute an age gap, Chinese elderly people are relatively frugal and have a low willingness to get vaccinated. Through consumer interview profiling, it is found that currently Herpes Zoster Vaccine The core purchasing group is still30At around [age], after purchasing it, I gave it to my elders at home for vaccination. However, there will be a gap. The elderly have a low level of cognition and are afraid or unwilling to make an appointment online, resulting in many online appointments not being cancelled in the end. Therefore, Herpes Zoster Vaccine If age extension can be achieved, making the vaccinated population and the purchasing population unified, there is hope for a rapid increase in demand.
The third is rabies vaccine. China is a country with rabies epidemics, with nearly4,000Among the 10,000 people exposed to rabies, the current rabies vaccination rate among those who have been exposed is35%Left and right. In China99%The rabies cases were caused by bites or scratches from cats and dogs. According to the China Health Statistics Yearbook,2021The number of deaths reported from rabies ranked among the top five infectious diseases requiring legal reporting each year.
As a typical case of post-exposure prophylaxis, the demand for rabies vaccine remains very high. Affected by the suspension of production by some rabies vaccine manufacturers,2018year,2019The output value scale of rabies vaccines has decreased in recent years. However,2020After a year, with stricter supervision of the vaccine industry, improvements in production technology, increased vaccination rates, and a high-value rabies epidemic Affected by the entry of new markets, the overall output value scale of rabies vaccines has increased.
The vaccination penetration rate of influenza vaccines has been growing rapidly, at the same time Influenza vaccines need to be administered annually, which also provides a huge market space for them. At present, the vaccination rate of influenza vaccines in China is approximately only3%left and right. For comparison over the same period, taking the United States as an example50%, taking Canada as an example40%This also means that there is significant room for development in the output value scale of influenza vaccines in China.
last year8monthCDCThe Technical Guidelines for Influenza Vaccination Prevention and Control in China were released(2022 - 2023)It is recommended that key populations and high-risk individuals receive the influenza vaccine. It also mentions that co-infection with influenza viruses and COVID-19 may exacerbate respiratory infection symptoms and impose an even greater physical burden. recentlyWHOIt has also released recommendations on the types of strains used for influenza vaccines at different valences. The expansion of the target population for quadrivalent vaccines to infants and young children, as well as the gradual replacement of the existing trivalent vaccines, are becoming trends.
Finally, there is the pneumococcal vaccine. The issue of pneumococcal resistance has actually always been a major concern in public health. The incidence of cross-resistance to commonly used antibiotics, that is, multidrug resistance, among pneumococci is as high as80%, greatly increasing the difficulty and cost of treatment. Currently, the product types of pneumococcal vaccines include13price23There are two main categories of vaccines. These vaccines can be administered to children and the elderly respectively, and they can effectively reduce the mortality rate caused by pneumococcal infections. They offer good cost-effectiveness, thus their output value scale has also witnessed rapid growth.2017Year-end2021The compound annual growth rate for the year is74%.
The core driving force for the development of the pneumococcal vaccine market also comes from the increasing public awareness of this type of vaccine. At present, there are still significant differences in the vaccination rates of pneumococcal vaccines among different regions in China. According to literature statistics, the differences between different regions range from1%-40%Not equal.2019Since the beginning of this year, many domestically produced pneumococcal vaccines have been successively approved for market release. Compared to imported vaccines, domestic vaccines offer a price advantage and have also raised the upper age limit for eligible populations, further amplifying market demand. Local disease control centers have also issued documents, providing guiding opinions on the vaccination of pneumococcal vaccines. They support and encourage areas with conditions, especially large cities, to learn from the experiences of Beijing and Shenzhen and implement the vaccination of pneumococcal vaccines as a policy for benefiting the people.
As the speech was coming to an end, Chen Zhenrong made further analysis of the capital performance in the vaccine industry.
Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, cooperation among domestic and international vaccine companies on the development of COVID-19 vaccines has accelerated significantly, which has also promoted collaboration in other disease prevention areas. In terms of technical approaches,mRNAVaccines and recombinant protein vaccines are two major technical routes that have become hotspots for collaboration. At the same time, preventive vaccines are gradually shifting towards the development of therapeutic vaccines.
From the perspective of the capital market, Local enterprises have gone through a period of accumulation and then made a breakthrough, accelerating their listing pace. Meanwhile, companies have also completed rapid layout in key directions through mergers and acquisitions.
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About Frost & Sullivan's Healthcare Practice
The Healthcare Practice of Frost & Sullivan has professional analytical capabilities and extensive project experience in the life sciences sector. Leveraging the global think tank resources of Frost & Sullivan and its cross-industry business development platform in Greater China, Frost & Sullivan Healthcare has unique core advantages in healthcare industry investment and financing services. Frost & Sullivan Healthcare has a wide range of corporate clients in China and in the past20In the year, a vast customer network was established, and a wealth of project experience in various medical sub-fields was accumulated.
Project types include Knowledge Center projects (in-depth content, promotional activities).Pre-IPO financingprojectDCF modelValuation, Business Plan Services),IPO listingWe provide listed projects (industry consulting, clinical audits, fundraising and investment writing), market research, market value management, and strategic consulting. We also cooperate with well-known domestic and international information platforms and investment and financing institutions to offer one-stop solutions for enterprises in specialized sub-sectors such as pharmaceuticals and medical devices. Our services have received wide attention from investors.
