The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and 17 other departments recently issued the '“Robot+"Implementation Plan for Application Actions", proposing to deepen key areas of "robots".+"Applications. What is the current popularization rate of robots in domestic manufacturing applications? What problems exist? What is the popularization rate of agricultural robots in China? What is the future market space? What are some relatively mature application cases in the healthcare field? Why has most of the commercial robot industry not achieved profitability at present? What impacts does the 'Plan' have on the development of core robot technologies?"
Frost & SullivanFrost & SullivanCui Nan, Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China Region (hereinafter referred to as 'Frost & Sullivan'), was a guest at the Finance Program Center of China Media Group & CCTV. Industry Investment Observation The securities radio program discusses the development of the robotics industry together.
CCTV Financial Program Center
Q
The Plan proposes up to2025In [year], the manufacturing robot density was relatively2020The number of services robots and special-purpose robots has doubled year-on-year, with a significant improvement in both depth and breadth of industry applications. As you know, what is the current popularization rate of robots in domestic manufacturing? What problems exist?
At present, the aging trend in our country continues to intensify, and it is expected that the labor force population will also show a downward trend in the future. Coupled with the increasing cost of labor, this has continuously increased the development pressure on manufacturing. Therefore, accelerating the development of automation applications represented by industrial robots has become an urgent task.
In the past decade, China has deeply implemented intelligent manufacturing projects, and the scale and level of intelligent manufacturing applications have entered the global leading ranks. The robot density in China's manufacturing industry has increased by about13times, reaching an average of 10,000 workers322Industrial robots,5GThe application scale of key intelligent manufacturing technologies such as artificial intelligence has remained at the forefront globally.
China's manufacturing industry has unique advantages in promoting transformation and upgrading by applying industrial robots. Currently, China has the world's largest engineering talent pool, the greatest manufacturing demand, a wider range of industrial robot application scenarios, a more agile industrial chain response speed, a complete robot industry system, and a leading digital economy industry scale. China's manufacturing sector is the world's largest demand market for industrial robots and the most ideal application testing ground. In particular, the vast manufacturing system has also enabled domestic enterprises to have a deeper understanding of industrial robot application scenarios, strengthening the capabilities of many manufacturing enterprises to develop and manufacture industrial robots in niche fields.
At present, over a hundred factories in China have reached the international advanced level of intelligent manufacturing, with main business revenue exceeding10There are nearly a hundred intelligent manufacturing system solution providers worth hundreds of millions, with service scopes covering90%The above manufacturing sectors.
However, there is still significant room for improvement in the current manufacturing robot density in China, and the penetration rate of robots in manufacturing also needs to be further strengthened.
On the one hand, there are 'bottleneck' risks regarding domestic technological breakthroughs in industrial robots, localization substitution, and the security of the robot industry supply chain. Affected by various factors, some developed countries will not only further strengthen restrictions on the export of complete high-end industrial robots to China but also increase scrutiny over Chinese robot manufacturers' procurement of key core components, limit patent and technology transfers. Whether it is for the transformation and upgrading of the domestic robotics industry or for manufacturing enterprises using high-end industrial robots, the resistance will further increase in the future.
However, with the increased R&D investment by Chinese related enterprises and institutions, breakthroughs have been made in some core component areas. The localization and substitution of some core components for industrial robots are accelerating, and robot industry clusters have formed on a certain scale in some regions. The development of the new generation of robot industries, which are closely integrated with artificial intelligence technology, is also providing opportunities for China's robot industry to catch up and surpass.
On the other hand, for China's manufacturing industry to achieve the goals of machine replacing manual labor and human-machine collaboration, it not only needs to make technological breakthroughs but also faces a complex employment environment that requires supporting reforms to the education system. In recent years, some manufacturing industries in our country have faced labor shortages. At the same time, there are also phenomena of underemployment and insufficient employment. The use of industrial robots should not only fill the employment gaps in manufacturing and reduce labor costs in manufacturing, but also create new job opportunities in other more suitable industries and fields.
Q
In terms of agriculture, the 'Plan' proposes to promote the deep integration of robots with agricultural planting, breeding, forestry, and fisheries production, supporting the development of smart agriculture. What is the current popularization rate of domestic agricultural robots? How is the future market space analyzed?
The mechanization rate of agricultural facilities in China is only30%Left and right, the penetration rate of agricultural robots is even lower. Compared with developed countries, in addition to environmental control systems, the overall level of automated and intelligent equipment for facility cultivation is not high, and there is still a certain gap. Most domestic agricultural robots with independent intellectual property rights are still in the prototype stage, and there is still a certain gap in terms of precision, efficiency, and reliability compared with foreign manufacturers.
There are two main bottlenecks in the promotion and popularization of agricultural robots in our country: one is the manufacturing cost of agricultural robots, and the other is the level of intelligence of agricultural robots.
Currently, most developed agricultural robots are only designed for a specific task within a certain stage of agricultural production. However, one characteristic of agricultural production is its strong seasonality, which leads to low utilization efficiency of agricultural robots and indirectly increases their operating costs. The cost-effectiveness of these robots cannot meet market needs, becoming a bottleneck that restricts the commercialization and further research and application of agricultural robots. For example, in the case of picking robots, due to the seasonal nature of some cash crops, if picking robots can only be used for picking one type of crop, then the robot's working hours per year are very limited. Only when the operating cost of agricultural robots is lower than that of manual labor can they be widely promoted, which undoubtedly poses high requirements for cost control of agricultural robots.
Compared to industrial robots or robots in other fields, agricultural robots operate in a variety of environments, mainly unstructured ones, and their tasks pose significant challenges. Therefore, generally speaking, agricultural robots have much higher requirements for intelligence than robots in other fields. At present, the field of agricultural engineering has shifted its research focus from mechanical studies to machine vision and artificial intelligence technology research, aiming to solve the intelligence problems of agricultural robots.
From the current technical level, mature solutions have been developed in areas such as automatic navigation and visual recognition positioning. However, overall, the development of intelligent systems is not yet perfect, and many tasks cannot be completed solely by agricultural robots. On the other hand, even if agricultural robots have achieved a considerable level of intelligence and can perform certain tasks, their manufacturing costs are too high, making development extremely difficult and making them difficult to be commercially applied on a large scale.
From the current research status, agricultural robots can replace some of the labor done by humans and have very high work efficiency. For tasks that are harsh on the environment, require heavy physical labor, or involve repetitive and monotonous work, such as spraying pesticides, harvesting, and crop sorting, it is expected that agricultural robot systems will be able to complete these tasks, thereby liberating a large amount of human resources.
With the continuous rapid development of China's national economy, the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure, the intensification of agricultural production, and the rapid development of robot technology in our country, there will be good development opportunities for China's agricultural robotics industry. In the application of new agricultural production models and technologies, agricultural robots, as a new generation of intelligent agricultural machinery, will surely be used more and more widely.
China is a developing agricultural country, and agricultural issues have always been fundamental to the socio-economic development of society. Among them, agricultural science and technology are currently the main driving force for agricultural growth. In future agricultural development, the widespread application of agricultural robots to replace resources with technology, improve resource utilization and agricultural output rates, thereby enhancing economic benefits, will be an inevitable trend in modern agricultural development. Therefore, research and development related to agricultural robots are of great significance for the long-term development of agriculture in China.
Q
Medical health is also a key application area for robots. What are some relatively mature use cases in your opinion at present?
Currently, relatively mature applications include hospital delivery robots and clinical medical robots.
Hospital delivery robots, with mobile robots as carriers, implement an autonomous guided unmanned automated handling system. In traditional hospital scenarios, the transfer of various items within the hospital is mainly carried out by patients, medical staff, or dedicated delivery personnel. There is a lack of clear distinction between pedestrian flow lines and logistics flow lines, leading to serious cross-over between them. This often results in chaos in both pedestrian and logistics traffic, posing potential risks of cross-infection among different personnel, as well as contamination, damage, and loss of items.
Against the backdrop of past epidemics, the application value of delivery robots in scenarios such as hospitals has gradually become rapidly apparent. Intelligent delivery robots mainly undertake tasks within the hospital campus such as delivering medications and meals to isolation areas, as well as collecting bedding and medical waste. Through the intelligent scheduling of the central control center, robots can perform functions such as independently opening and closing doors, taking elevators on their own, avoiding obstacles, and charging themselves without human operation. Some robot boxes are equipped with ultraviolet disinfection lamps to keep the box and items clean at any time. Robots also have remote real-time voice and video communication capabilities, allowing direct communication with nurses or patients in isolation wards through the scheduling system. Medication delivery robots can replace nurses in completing daily tasks such as delivering medications, case files, and laboratory test reports.
Clinical medical robots include surgical robots and diagnostic and therapeutic robots, capable of performing precise surgeries or diagnoses. The industry is most well-known for the 'Da Vinci' robot, whose success is also due to its adoption by the United States and Europe.FDAApproved for clinical use; some leading domestic companies have also obtained the approval from the China Food and Drug Administration (CFDAThe surgical robot medical device registration license issued by the relevant authority has been applied in fields such as trauma orthopedics and spinal surgery.
Q
In terms of service robots, the Plan proposes Commercial community service develops commercial robots for catering, delivery, reception, guided tours, consulting, cleaning, mobility assistance, etc., as well as household robots for cooking, cleaning, monitoring, companionship, and more. However, most commercial robot companies in the industry have not yet achieved profitability. What are the reasons?
1The R&D cost of commercial robots is high, and the industry is still in an early stage focusing on heavy investment in research and development. The high R&D costs lead to financial losses;
2Commercialization is in the exploration phase, and appropriate business models are being gradually explored through continuous development. Certain market education efforts have been carried out, resulting in a limited commercial application scale of commercial robots, with limited commercial revenue.
3Against the backdrop of the pandemic over the past three years, many downstream industry customers of commercial robots have been impacted themselves. For example, multiple industries such as catering, hospitality, and tourism have suffered negative effects, which has also had a negative impact on the downstream procurement demand for commercial robots.
Q
In terms of household robots, the penetration rate of cleaning-related products is relatively high. Which products still need to be broken through and what are the challenges?
individual/Home service robots enter home life through multiple functions. Among them, assisting with household chores is the most mature branch of service robots at present. In the future, service robot manufacturers will focus on areas such as family education, entertainment, and companionship robots.
The challenges include the need to improve technical standards. Currently, in addition to floor sweeping robots, there are personal/The hardware level and intelligence of home service robots need further improvement. To achieve this, profound technical capabilities and cost-effective product implementation solutions are required.
Secondly, the current individual/The market for home service robots is highly homogenized. In the face of a highly homogeneous market, how to build brand barriers and develop innovative and differentiated products is a question that companies in the industry need to seriously consider.
Q
The 'Plan' supports user units to participate in the core technology research and development of the robot industry chain, including high-torque density servo motors, high-dynamic motion planning and control, and human-machine interaction. It aims to deeply explore and unleash potential application demands, and jointly develop advanced and applicable robot products and system solutions. What impacts will this have on the development of core robot technologies?
The situation in which China has long been constrained by others in key components such as reducers, servo motors, and controllers is changing. Domestic manufacturers have successively overcome some difficulties in these core component areas and are steadily advancing the localization of these components. This will reduce the cost of domestic robots, increase their proportion in new installations, and more importantly, it will break the technological development constraints imposed by foreign brands in key areas.
Artificial intelligence, situated in the third wave of rapid development, has opened up vast prospects for a new generation of robots. New intelligent service robot technologies are increasingly focused on big data, the Internet of Things, perception systems, and other fields. In these areas, China is almost on par with foreign countries, and in some technologies and market application spaces, China even holds an advantage. This will bring significant opportunities for China's robots to achieve 'curve overtaking'.
To promote the innovative development of China's robotics industry, efforts can be focused on the following aspects:
First, achieve self-reliance and control over the domestic supply chain to ensure industrial security. After tackling key issues during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans, robot core components (reducing gears, servo motors and drives, controllers) have been commercialized and mass-produced domestically, with the localization rate of harmonic reducers exceeding65%Robotic-specific sensors have been commercialized, initially enabling small-scale applications. The core component industry has achieved phased results, cultivating several backbone enterprises in this field.
However, it cannot be ignored that robot operating systems and digital twin software are still in their infancy, and robot general-purpose chips, some sensor-specific chips, and robot R&D design software still face risks of supply interruption and slowdown. Achieving the localization of core software and components for robots, as well as building a high-quality supply chain, is the focus of the healthy development of the robotics industry.
Secondly, cultivate leading enterprises and 'specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative' (SRII) enterprises to enhance industrial competitiveness. The competitiveness of Chinese robotics enterprises is the decisive force determining our voice in the global robotics industry landscape. After60Year-on-year development, cultivation ofABB,KUKAGiant industrial robot companies have also cultivated a group of hidden champions.
It should be said that leading enterprises and hidden champions truly dominate and lead the development direction of the robotics industry. For the robotics industry in our country to achieve high-quality development, it is necessary to cultivate two or three world-class robot companies with global competitiveness, as well as a number of specialized and innovative enterprises with leading advantages in niche fields.
Thirdly, it is necessary to create a favorable industrial ecological environment to achieve sustainable and healthy industrial development. Efforts should be made to strengthen the construction of an industrial innovation system, establishing a technology innovation system that is enterprise-oriented, market-driven, and deeply integrated with industry, academia, and research. Promote the construction of national-level technology innovation centers, industrial innovation centers, and manufacturing innovation centers in the field of robotics, and build open, collaborative, and efficient common technology research and development platforms. Cultivate a large number of strategic scientific and technological talents, leading scientific and technological talents, and high-level innovation teams with international standards. At the same time, attention should be paid to cultivating applied and skilled vocational talents.
Promote the healthy interaction between capital and industry, accelerate the incubation of new robot technologies, products, and models through government guidance and market-oriented operations. Establish a system that adapts to the development of the robotics industry, build an industrial standardization system, and establish and improve technical standards for basic commonality, interconnection, security privacy, industry applications, etc.
Lead the new standards and models of intelligent manufacturing for robots, promote the integrated application of new-generation robots, core supporting software, industrial Internet, etc., popularize new manufacturing models such as process intelligent manufacturing, discrete intelligent manufacturing, networked collaborative manufacturing, remote diagnosis and operation and maintenance services based on new-generation robots, and support the transformation and upgrading of the national manufacturing industry.
*The program has been broadcast on third-party platforms under the title '“Robot+"Empowering thousands of industries: accelerating the promotion of robot applications".
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