Judging from the disclosed financial reports, due to price wars, the performance of the entire wind power industry chain is not very optimistic. What is the reason why companies would rather incur losses than lower prices? Is this round of price wars almost coming to an end? How should it be viewed?3,4Is the wind power tendering season sluggish in the month? Given the overall irrational industrial environment in China at present, it is difficult for enterprises to make profits. Which links in the industrial chain are more likely to seek incremental growth overseas?
Frost & SullivanFrost & SullivanXu Biao, Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, was interviewed by CBN to discuss the development of the wind power industry.
*Click "Read the Original Article" at the end of this text to read the full report.
Caixin
Q
At the beginning of the year, institutions predicted that this year's offshore wind would be a sector with good prosperity in the new energy industry chain. The market sentiment in the secondary market is highly anticipated. In the second half of the year, is it possible to expect an offshore wind market boom?
2023The year marks the first year of high installation capacity in the next three years for offshore wind, and it is considered a major delivery year for the industry. Considering that the third quarter is only entering the traditional peak season for offshore wind, many offshore wind construction projects started construction later in the second quarter, resulting in slight delays or partial deliveries, which were postponed until the third quarter. As domestic offshore wind gradually enters the delivery window period, we expect that domestic wind power production and delivery will start in earnest in the third quarter. Offshore wind construction may enter a peak of intensive deliveries, with a high degree of certainty in growth.
Q
Judging from the disclosed financial reports, due to price wars, the performance of the entire wind power industry chain is not very promising. Whether it's the complete machines or components, what do you think is the reason why companies would rather incur losses than lower prices? Has this round of price wars almost come to an end?
Firstly, looking at the current competitive landscape of domestic wind turbine manufacturers, although the3Large manufacturers in accordance with2022The hoisting capacity in the year accounted for more than50%The market share is also very competitive with other major manufacturers, and there are still significant variables in the market pattern. Secondly, since the downstream market for wind turbines in China is mainly domestically, the current capacity of the domestic wind turbine market has not been fully utilized. The main downstream customers of wind turbines are large developers represented by the five major and six minor players. Currently, when these large developers conduct bidding, price weight still accounts for a relatively large proportion, which to some extent forces wind turbine companies to engage in 'price wars'. The above are the main reasons for the price war in the Chinese wind turbine market.
Judging from the performance of listed wind power equipment companies in the first quarter of this year, the revenue and profits of most companies have seen a significant year-on-year decline, especially5Large fan listed companies, total revenue and attributableThe net profit of the parent company decreased year-on-year.37.4%and60.2%Judging from the recent tender prices for wind power projects, the winning bid prices for onshore projects have been basically stable, while those for offshore projects have fluctuated. Therefore, we believe that major enterprises in various industrial chains will learn from the negative impacts of 'price wars' on industry development during China's past wind power industry development and take proactive actions to end the price wars.
Q
What's your opinion on it?3,4Is the wind power tendering in the month sluggish? Is downstream demand weak now? Please discuss in detail, taking into account local wind power plans and large-scale wind and solar bases.
Incomplete statistics,2023year1 - 4In the month, the wind power tendered capacity reached27.6 GW(excluding framework bidding), a year-on-year decrease7.4%The bidding rhythm has slowed down. However, looking at the overall winning bid situation,2023year1 - 4In mid-month, the winning bid capacity of wind turbines increased by approximately45%This indicates that the overall demand is still quite strong.
In addition to the State Council2022year12The Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022 - 2035In the 'Year of Promoting Green Development' (2021), it was clearly stated that it is necessary to significantly increase the utilization level of clean energy, build multi-energy complementary clean energy bases, and accelerate the construction of large-scale wind and photovoltaic bases with desert, Gobi, and barren areas as key priorities.
Provinces and cities have recently introduced proactive policies to promote the development of the wind power industry. For example, the 'Fujian Province Action Plan for Promoting Green Economic Development (2022one2025In the '14th Five-Year Plan' (2021-2025), it is proposed to accelerate the development of offshore wind power, focusing on promoting project construction in regions such as Fuzhou, Ningde, Pingtan, Tanzhou, and Putian. The demonstration development of the southern Fujian offshore wind power base should be steadily advanced, with an increase in installed capacity during the '14th Five-Year Plan' period.40010,000 kilowatts; Guangdong Province issued the 'Guangdong Province2023"Work Plan for Competitive Allocation of Offshore Wind Power Projects in 2023", the document indicates that there are a total of15one, installation70010,000 kilowatts; The "Henan Province Carbon Peak Implementation Plan" proposes to accelerate the development and utilization of wind energy resources, plan and construct a number of high-quality wind power bases with a capacity of one million kilowatts, by2025In the year, the cumulative grid-connected capacity of wind power reached2,700Above 10,000 kilowatts.
Q
In China, the current industrial environment is generally irrational, making it difficult for enterprises to make profits. Which links in the industrial chain are more likely to seek incremental growth overseas?
In order to reach a broader market space and improve corporate profitability, enterprises in various links of the domestic wind power industry chain are actively seeking overseas expansion to acquire incremental markets. This includes wind power development companies represented by CGN, several large wind turbine manufacturers, as well as leading manufacturers in the fields of blades, towers, and offshore cables. In comparison, due to the relatively simple manufacturing and transportation processes, and the ability to support the localization of wind power manufacturing in some European and American countries to a certain extent, manufacturers of blades, towers, and offshore cables may be more likely to gain incremental market share overseas.
*This interview is published in Caixin. Reporter: Liu Chang Original title: The wind power market has not materialized as expected When will the industrial chain reach an inflection point? >> .
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