Frost & Sullivan: Domestic Sales Surge During Heatwaves, High-Energy-Efficiency Exports Become New Engine for Domestic Air Conditioners

The growth in air conditioner sales this year is mainly due to the superposition of multiple factors:

On one hand, the national subsidy has been very substantial, with the central finance allocating 300 billion yuan in subsidies in batches. This has not only boosted air conditioner sales but also led to an ideal recovery in overall consumer data across the country during the first half of the year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2031.71 billion yuan, a growth of 5.0%. Among them, retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles amounted to 1843.24 billion yuan, a growth of 5.6%. It can be said that the overall growth of consumption has been relatively good.

On the other hand, this year's weather has been extremely hot, not only ending earlier than usual with the arrival of the plum rain season, but also seeing widespread high temperatures across the country. Moreover, the onset of high temperatures has come somewhat earlier than in previous years.

Coupled with the major e-commerce platforms starting their 618 activities in May this year, which coincided with the national subsidy and hot weather factors. Under the influence of multiple factors, there was a prosperous supply and demand situation in the air-conditioning market from May to June.

However, on the other hand, there is a need to be vigilant about the tapering of subsidies and the slowdown in growth rates after the end of the 618 event. In fact, since the second half of June, there has been a certain fatigue in industry sales growth, with some provinces such as Zhejiang showing signs of exhaustion of state subsidy funds.

Overall, there have been no major changes in the macroeconomy. The booming sales of air conditioners starting in May have, to some extent, pushed up the demand for air conditioners during the summer season in previous years to May and June. However, if there are no new actions such as national subsidies in the future, the industry is unlikely to maintain such a high growth rate for a long time and will gradually return to a steady growth.

The growth in overseas orders, especially those from Europe, is indeed a highlight for the industry. For a long time, the penetration rate of household air conditioners in regions such as Europe has been lower than that in China. However, this year there have also been widespread high temperatures in Europe, with some countries experiencing temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. Coupled with the fact that domestic air conditioner manufacturers have reached international advanced levels in technology and energy consumption after a long period of development, and with the added advantage of cost-effectiveness, there has been a significant increase in overseas orders this year.

The more obvious feature is that both volume and value have reached new highs, but prices have seen a certain degree of decline. This trend has generally continued the overall trend of the industry since 2024. The use of price to trade for volume also reflects the intensified competition in the industry since 2024, and it also indirectly reflects everyone's certain concerns about the uncertain future, hoping to maintain their market share in 2025.

Specifically, looking at online and offline sales, the price cuts on the online platform are higher than those offline. Relatively speaking, the prices of online products are more transparent at present, and price competition is also more intense. In recent years, manufacturers have made certain distinctions between online and offline product lines by differentiating models, etc., to avoid price influence between them.

Competing in energy efficiency has been one of the key areas of competition among domestic air-conditioning manufacturers in recent years. As the market with the most intense global competition for air conditioners, leading manufacturers have also taken the lead in technology over the years. New features, AI technology, and energy-saving technology are all key areas of competition for domestic manufacturers. Especially with the current large-scale development of AI technology in China, it is expected to help enterprises achieve overtaking on a curve.

Looking at domestic sales products, the proportion of high-efficiency models has been continuously increasing in recent years. Data shows that from the list of best-selling models, the proportion of high-efficiency models with an APF greater than 5.6 has risen to over 20%. Domestic products have gradually moved away from the previous stage of simply competing on price.

With the increasing proportion of high-efficiency products in China and their popularization, from the perspective of energy-saving efficiency alone, leading brands are continuously narrowing the gap with the world's top levels. They also have the potential to further expand their export scale by relying on high efficiency + high cost-effectiveness, competing with traditional Japanese and European manufacturers in overseas markets.