Frost & Sullivan has been invited to attend the 2026xRNA Nucleic Acid Drug Development and Innovation Forum to share insights into trends in the small nucleic acid drug industry for 2025-2026

Li Qian pointed out that the synergistic effect between AI algorithms and GalNAc delivery systems is pushing siRNA and ASO drugs from the early concept verification stage to the large-scale commercialization stage. China is expected to become the world's second-largest oligonucleotide drug market by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 44.4% from 2024 to 2029.

Frost & Sullivan data shows that the global small nucleic acid drug market size has increased from $3 billion in 2020 to $5.7 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.7%. Under the triple resonance of AI-assisted sequence design, breakthroughs in GalNAc trivalent conjugation technology, and the liberalization of medical insurance access, the market will exceed $200 billion for the first time in 2029 and further expand to $600 billion by 2035. Among them, the small nucleic acid drug market size in China reached $100 million in 2024; by 2029, it is expected to increase to $900 million at an annual compound growth rate of 44.4%, and further reach $42 billion at an annual compound growth rate of 30.6% by 2035. "If we regard 2020-2024 as the 'technology validation period', then 2025-2029 is the 'commercial volume expansion period', and 2029-2035 will enter the 'ecological maturity period'." Li Qian summarized the track rhythm with the 'three-stage leap' in his speech.

Li Qian introduced that from 2021 to 2024, the number of First-In-Class pipelines in China's innovative biopharmaceutical field increased from 162 to 383, among which nucleic acid drugs doubled from 15 to 31, accounting for about 10%. Through the Hong Kong '18A' listing channel, the nucleic acid drug track is completing a role shift from an 'edge technology sector' to a 'core investment main line': among the 78 biotech companies listed from 2018 to 2025, there is only one nucleic acid drug company, accounting for 1.3%; among the companies that have submitted their reports in 2025, the proportion of nucleic acid drug companies has jumped to 10.0%, exceeding tracks such as peptides and immune cell therapies, indicating that the window for capital and policies is tilting towards the small nucleic acid field.

Looking at the performance of listed drugs, Spinraza's sales reached $1.741 billion in 2023, with the annual treatment cost of several drugs ranging from $420,000 to $1.586 million; among siRNA drugs, Leqvio's sales reached $558 million, with an annual treatment cost of about $50,000, and the treatment costs of other drugs were in the range of $322,000 to $795,000.

In terms of the Chinese market, currently, four imported nucleic acid drugs have been approved, including Spinraza, Leqvio, QALSODY, and Redemplo, with no domestic products on the market. Overall, nucleic acid drugs show strong momentum in terms of transaction activity, capital support, and clinical value, especially showing significant growth potential in the Chinese market.

Looking ahead, the continuous integration of technologies such as AI sequence design, optimization of GalNAc trivalent conjugation technology, microfluidic continuous production, and multi-omics feedback is driving the R&D process of oligonucleotide drugs to continue accelerating and promoting the development of new directions such as extrahepatic delivery and ultra-long-acting modification. At the policy level, Leqvio's inclusion in the national medical insurance negotiation catalog reflects the gradual acceptance of high-value nucleic acid drugs by the payment system. In terms of the supply chain, an industrial base with large-scale production capacity has been formed domestically, and technological progress has driven continuous cost reduction. As of April 2025, nearly 60 nucleic acid drugs in China have entered the clinical stage, among which about 16.7% are in Phase III, and it is expected that many projects will enter the market application stage in the next few years. Some leading varieties have been deployed for both Chinese and US applications, promoting the steady progress of China's nucleic acid drug industry towards a higher development stage.