Frost & Sullivan insights
7month15Today, the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics announced2022Industrial capacity utilization rate across the country in the second quarter of the year. The data shows that the industrial capacity utilization rate across the country in the second quarter was75.1%, down compared with the same period last year3.3Percentage points. And in the first half of this year, the utilization rate of industrial capacity was75.4%, down compared with the same period last year2.5percentage points.
What kind of information does the high or low utilization rate of industrial capacity across the country convey? Looking at major industries, In the first half of this year, why did the utilization rate of industrial capacity in the automotive manufacturing industry decline the most compared to last year? In the second quarter, why did the utilization rate of industrial capacity in the non-metallic mineral products industry decline the most compared to last year? How to assess the performance of industrial capacity utilization in the third quarter? Frost & SullivanFrost & Sullivan,Dr. Wang Xin, Global Partner and President of Greater China at Frost & Sullivan (hereinafter referred to as 'Frost & Sullivan'), was interviewed by Economic Observer Network to discuss2022Performance of industrial capacity utilization rate in the year.
Economic Observer Network
7month15On the same day, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce2022The operational status of the national economy in the first half of the year was announced on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, with multiple economic indicators provided.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, preliminary accounting,2022The gross domestic product for the first half of the year was562642Yuan billion, calculated at constant prices, a year-on-year increase2.5%, including GDP in the second quarter292464Yuan, a year-on-year increase0.4%The National Bureau of Statistics believes that2022In the first half of the year, China effectively responded to the impact of factors exceeding expectations, stabilizing and recovering its national economy.
From an industrial perspective,2022In the first half and second quarter of this year, the growth rate of added value of industries above designated size was higher than that of the whole country in the same periodGDPThe growth rate needs to be higher. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show,2022In the first half of the year, industrial added value above designated size nationwide increased by [X]% year-on-year.3.4%In the second quarter, industrial added value above designated size increased by year-on-year0.7%.
However,2022In the first half of the year and the second quarter, the utilization rate of industrial capacity across the country showed a trend opposite to that of the same period across the countryGDPCurves that are completely the opposite: Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows,2022In the first half of the year, the national industrial capacity utilization rate was75.4%, down year-on-year2.5Percentage points. The utilization rate of national industrial capacity in the second quarter was75.1%, down year-on-year3.3percentage points.
Quarterly trend chart of industrial capacity utilization rate over the past three years(Data source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Capacity utilization rate refers to the ratio of actual output to productive capacity. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the survey on industrial capacity utilization rates nationwide involves large and medium-sized enterprises as well as small and micro-enterprises.11There are about ten thousand enterprises, among which large and medium-sized enterprises were surveyed comprehensively, while small and micro enterprises were surveyed through sampling.
Wang Xin, Global Partner at Frost & Sullivan and President of the Greater China Region, pointed out to an Economic Observer reporter that the National Bureau of Statistics has been2013The data on the utilization rate of industrial capacity across the country has been published quarterly since the beginning of the year, reflecting the overall and major industry production efficiency. Neither an excessively high nor a too low level of this data is ideal. It is evident that if the utilization rate of industrial capacity is too low, it indicates idle capacity, leading to cost waste; if the utilization rate is too high, it suggests that capacity is tight and expansion is needed.
Wang Xin believes that the changing trend in the utilization rate of industrial capacity across the country can provide a reference for policy adjustments: 'From historical data,2013Year-end2015During the year, China's overall industrial capacity utilization rate showed a certain downward trend.2015Starting at the end of the year, the country has vigorously promoted supply-side reform, eliminating backward and overcapacity through 'three reductions, one elimination, and one supplement'.2016year-2017During the year, China's industrial capacity utilization rate improved significantly.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the utilization rate of industrial capacity nationwide.2020In the first quarter of 2023, the utilization rate of industrial capacity across the country rapidly declined to67.3%, and then gradually recover. Looking at the trend in the past three years,2022In the first half of the year, the national industrial capacity utilization rate showed an unusually downward trend. Typically, due to the Spring Festival holiday in the first quarter, the industrial capacity utilization rate for the second quarter of the same year would be slightly higher than that of the first quarter.2019year,2020year2021The situation in [year] has been the same.
2022Industrial capacity utilization rates of major industries in the first half of the year(Data source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Looking at different industries,2022In the first half of the year, the automotive manufacturing industry saw the most severe decline in industrial capacity utilization, falling by5.5percentage points.
Wang Xin analyzed to the Economic Observer Network reporter that there are mainly two reasons behind this.
Firstly, affected by the domestic epidemic, especially that in Shanghai, the automotive manufacturing industry faced significant challenges in terms of supply chain and staffing arrangements in the first half of this year. According to the statistical data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of this year, China's automobile production and sales respectively completed1211.710,000 units and1205.7Ten thousand units, a year-on-year decrease3.7%and6.6%And2021In that year, Shanghai's automobile production reached10%left and right.
Secondly, China's automotive industry is in a period of structural adjustment. The industry is vigorously developing new energy vehicles, with new production capacity expanding. It still requires some time to adjust old production capacity.
2022In the second quarter of the year, the industry with the most severe decline in industrial capacity utilization rate was non-metallic mineral products.
Wang Xin analyzed to an Economic Observer reporter that the decline in capacity utilization rate of this industry is closely related to changes in the real estate sector.
The non-metallic mineral products industry mainly includes the production of building materials such as cement, lime, glass, and ceramics, which is closely related to the development of the construction industry. With2020A series of policies introduced in the year have led the real estate industry into a period of deep adjustment. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics,2022New housing starts in the first half of the year66423Ten thousand square meters, a decrease34.4%"The adjustment in the real estate industry has dragged down the overall development of the construction industry, thereby affecting the upstream non-metallic mineral products industry." Wang Xin said.
In Wang Xin's view, the decline in industrial capacity utilization rate in the second quarter of this year was mainly due to4month and5The impact of sporadic outbreaks in recent months is mitigated, and as long as the domestic epidemic improves and maintains a good situation, the utilization rate of industrial capacity across the country can be effectively improved in the third quarter.
"FromPPI,PMILooking at these leading indicators of industrial capacity utilization,6monthPPIRemained flat month-on-month.6Monthly manufacturingPMIfor50.2It has increased month-on-month and returned above the boom-bust line after three months. "We believe that as the industrial chain and supply chain gradually become smoother and more stable, and with the continuous advancement of resuming work and production, industrial capacity utilization rates will improve in the third quarter," said Wang Xin.
*This article is reprinted from the Economic Observer Network, with reporter Li Huaqing. The original title was 'Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate Declined Year-on-Year in the First Half of the Year'.2.5What does a percentage point convey?
