As the 'water seller', the pharmaceutical outsourcing industry (hereinafter referred to asCXOThe industry has always been highly regarded by the industry for its 'stable yields regardless of droughts or floods', with a high degree of prosperity.CXOThe industry has always been a "regular customer" recommended by various securities firms' pharmaceutical research reports. Review2022year,AMost sharesCXOThe revenue growth rate of enterprises in the first three quarters was 'pleasant', but there were also many challenges. The industry's stock prices have generally corrected, and as of now, the industry index has still fallen by more than 30% compared to a year ago.
How to look at the domestic marketCXOIndustry development prospects? forCXOWhat's your view on the performance growth rate of enterprises next year? Some believe that concerns about overcapacity will mainly emerge with large molecules.CXOIndustry, not small moleculesCXOIndustry, what's your opinion on this?CXOAre there any other concerns in the industry? Frost & SullivanFrost & SullivanZhu Yi, Senior Consulting Director of Healthcare Industry in Greater China at Frost & Sullivan (hereinafter referred to as 'Frost & Sullivan'), was interviewed by Cailian News to discussCXOIndustry development.
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Combined with 'the largest global sales20Original research drug, future10yearly9Regarding situations such as "loan maturity", what do you think of the domestic market?CXOIndustry development prospects?
The expiration of a large number of patented drugs will drive continuous growth in the generic drug market, which will, to some extent, boost the role of generics as the 'industry's water sellers'.CXOThe service demand continues to increase. According to Frost & Sullivan analysis,2022Year is the starting point of a new patent cliff, not only for the company with the largest global sales20Original research drug, future10yearly9The deadline has arrived. The pharmaceutical industry is facing a wave of patent expirations, which is both an opportunity and a challenge.
Although our country has been continuously deepening medical reforms and encouraging the development of innovative drugs in recent years, as a developing country with limited payment capabilities, Generic drugs will remain an important choice for clinical medication in China for some time to come.
With the maturity of China's healthcare industry and the deepening of reforms, it is expected that the penetration rate of generic drugs in overall prescriptions will further increase, which alsoCXOBrings industry opportunities: The volume of consistency evaluation and clinical trial orders has increased, but the unit price may not be as high as in the past for innovative drug R&D. Therefore How to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and improve the output ratio has becomeCXOAnother topic ahead.
Q
Some views suggest that it involves large COVID-19 order businessesCXOEnterprises, next year will see weak growth momentum based on this year's high base, forCXOWhat's your view on the performance growth rate of enterprises next year?
Involving large new coronavirus-related order businessesCXOEnterprises have benefited from related orders, achieving gratifying results this year. In the coming year, it is inevitable that performance will dip due to significant changes in pandemic policies. However, in the long run, Based on the rapid economic development, progress in medical technology, and people's relentless pursuit of health, the demand for the biopharmaceutical industry remains strong in the future.
from2022At the beginning of the year, the secondary market was worriedCXOThe industry has future performance growth potential, but headsCXOThe performance of listed companies from1quarterly3The quarterly results were all very impressive, continuing to maintain high growth without any signs of a significant slowdown.CXOThe industry logic has not changed.
However, the increasing R&D risks and costs also bring uncertainties to the development of the pharmaceutical outsourcing industry. Therefore,CXOThe market is rapidly concentrating towards larger-scale niche leaders across various countries. Therefore, Expected top players in the futureCXOThe performance will maintain a rather optimistic growth rate, but the head effect will continue to be evident.
Q
How can innovative pharmaceutical companies achieve a breakthrough? Concerns about overcapacity are more likely to emerge with macromolecules.CXOIndustry, not small moleculesCXOIndustry, do you agree with this statement?
I don't agree.
macromolecular biopharmaceuticalCXOA key factor contributing to the overcapacity trend in production capacity in the past one or two years is that idle production capacity of some biotech companies has been temporarily taken on by external parties under the current economic situation.CXOBusiness has inadvertently exacerbated the industry's capacity process and involution, but it is understood that this is also a temporary expedient measure to obtain certain cash flow, which will improve structurally in the future.
And small moleculesCXOThe capacity expansion mainly stems from order-driven demand. Although it cannot be ruled out that some factors are catalyzed by the heavy orders for COVID-19 small molecule drugs, more production expansion is still due to actual customer demand and even received orders. There is no very serious overcapacity problem.
In addition, globallyCDMO companyEnterprises are expanding their production capacity, and as a new major pharmaceutical development country, it is very normal for China's production capacity to expand.
Q
In addition, what do you thinkCXOAre there any other factors in the industry that require concern, such as geopolitical risks?
Geopolitical factors are indeedCXOThe industry has encountered an unexpected “black swan”, which was previously “incorporatedUVLAfter the list-triggered plunge in the secondary market, the National Biotechnology and Bioengineering Initiative advanced by the Biden administration in the second half of this year has once again sparked concerns aboutCXOIndustry concerns over political disruptions.
In fact, usuallyCXOThe company has a very trusting and stable partnership with its client, the pharmaceutical company. Its service fees are not easily affected by trade restrictions such as additional tariffs, and it is an industry that is not easily disturbed by political turmoil.
In additionCXOCompanies can mitigate the impact of geopolitical risks by adjusting their supply chains, such as domestic substitution for raw materials and consumables. Therefore, we must correctly understand the influence of factors such as international relations.
*This interview was published in 'Cainiao News Agency', with reporter Wang Junxian. The original title was ' Is high prosperity without risk? COVID-19 orders, the "black swan," and new hidden concerns in the pharmaceutical outsourcing industry|Year-end inventory >> (Click on "Read the Original Article" at the end of the text to view the full report).
