The persistently high temperatures have suddenly made power generation during the peak summer season a hot topic of public discussion.7month6On the same day, Beijing issued its first high-temperature red alert signal for this summer, while power consumption loads in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces both exceeded their limits11000 million kilowatts, earlier than last year19sky,8sky.
Research reports show,2023year4In recent years, the power generation volume in Yunnan Province has been at a relatively low level. If the power supply situation in Yunnan continues to be tight, what impacts will it have on Guangdong's power supply and spot electricity market prices? The industry expects2023During the peak summer season of 2023, the power supply and demand situation in East China, Central China, and South China is relatively tight. Based on this forecast of the power consumption situation, what are the main factors that are causing disruptions to the power supply? Frost & SullivanFrost & SullivanXu Biao, Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan's Greater China Region (hereinafter referred to as 'Frost & Sullivan'), was interviewed by 'Cailianlian' to discuss power supply security.
*Click "Read the Original Article" at the end of the text to read the full report.
Cailian Finance & Economics News Agency
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Cailian News Agency Reporter: According to data released by the China Electricity Council,1 - 5Monthly hydropower generation of power plants above designated size across the country35231000 million kWh, a year-on-year decrease19.2%The top three provinces in terms of hydropower generation nationwide are Sichuan, Yunnan, and Hubei, with their combined hydropower generation accounting for62.8%, with growth rates of-1.5%,-20.8%and-38.4%What's your take on the decline in related data?
1 - 5The decline in monthly hydropower generation is partly due to the reduced rainfall and less water inflow from major river basins such as the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers this year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in the cumulative average utilization hours of hydropower generation equipment.294hours. On the other hand, it's also due to last year1 - 5The main river basins such as the Yangtze River and the Yellow River received relatively abundant rainfall, resulting in a relatively large amount of hydropower generation. Comparing this year with last year1 - 5Monthly hydropower generation has seen a significant decline.
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Cailian News Agency Reporter: Cross-regional coordination and mutual assistance in the power market have become one of the methods to ensure power supply. Taking 'Cloud Power Transmission to Guangdong' as an example, Yunnan Province contributes nearly 70% of the power received outside Guangdong Province (2022Annual data). Research reports show,2023year4In recent years, Yunnan Province's power generation has been at a relatively low level. It was only after reducing the consumption within the province and lowering the amount of electricity sent out that the power supply and demand were balanced.6 - 8The month of January is a seasonal peak in electricity consumption in Guangdong Province, which will lead to a sharp increase in the demand for power transmission from Yunnan. If Yunnan's power supply continues to be tight in the future, what impacts will it have on Guangdong's power supply and spot electricity market prices?
If the water inflow during the flood season does not increase as expected and the power generation from hydropower in Yunnan does not increase sufficiently, Guangdong's power supply will still face considerable pressure. In the short term, the tight power supply situation in Guangdong Province still needs to be addressed through measures such as increasing inter-provincial mutual assistance within the Southern Power Grid, coordinating with the State Grid for full support, and increasing the supply of thermal coal and gas within Yunnan Province to regulate the operation of thermal power units. In the long run, expanding the installed capacity and power supply within Guangdong Province, especially the supply capabilities of wind and photovoltaic power generation, also requires accelerating progress.
The price of electricity spot market is mainly related to the net load curve. The net load curve is the total load curve (including domestic and imported electricity, which is relatively regular) minus imported electricity, and it mainly depends on the curve of imported electricity. Currently, for the power transmitted from Yunnan to Guangdong, medium- and long-term agreements are still signed. If the power supply from Yunnan to Guangdong is insufficient, it will drive up the price of electricity spot market.
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Cailian News Agency Reporter: Industry estimates2023During the peak summer season of 2023, the power supply and demand situation in East China, Central China, and the South is relatively tight. Based on this forecast of electricity consumption trends, which factors do you believe are mainly causing disruptions to power supply?
Multiple factors such as macroeconomic growth, rapid recovery of industrial production, and high temperatures have led to increased power demand, putting considerable pressure on power supply.
In terms of power supply, uncertainties exist in precipitation and the stability of wind and solar resources, which affect the utilization hours of major power sources such as hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaic power. In addition, power generation enterprises also increase the uncertainty of power production and supply in terms of operational efficiency and equipment risks.
*This interview is published on the CCB Client. Reporter for Lu Tingting Original title: 'Power Market Welcomes High Temperatures "Baking" Tests: Guangdong Emphasizes Demand-Side Response and Cross-Regional Adjustment to Ensure Supply|Directly Addressing Power Supply Guarantee .
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