Frost & Sullivan: The competition in unmanned logistics vehicles has entered a new phase of 'scale-up + profitability'

Currently, unmanned logistics vehicles are transitioning from single-point trials to a collaborative phase that emphasizes both 'technology' and 'platform'. The industrial chain has formed a multi-entity pattern consisting of OEMs and chassis platforms, autonomous driving full-stack systems, fleet operations and intelligent scheduling platforms, scenario operators and shippers, as well as urban V2X and energy supply systems. The supporting sensors, computing power, charging and swapping facilities, insurance, and financial solutions are continuously being improved.

Multi-vehicle convoys, remote duty, human-machine collaboration, and vehicle-cloud integration have become basic elements of operational systems. Business models are also shifting from one-time equipment sales to a service-oriented path that charges by mileage, shifts, and service level agreements (SLAs).

In terms of the maturity of 'technology closed-loop + business closed-loop', in enclosed and semi-enclosed scenarios such as ports, mining areas, park main roads, airport aprons, and sanitation operations, the technology closed-loop is available, reusable, and capable of cross-park migration. In business terms, a continuous contract focusing on transportation capacity/service has been formed, with the feasibility of generating positive cash flow; these scenarios share common characteristics such as predictable tasks, simple interaction objects, high mileage density, which make it easier to increase the effective hours per vehicle and fleet utilization rate, while the unit mileage cost curve flattens with scale.

In comparison, the end-to-end delivery of open urban roads and urban arterial roads are still in the stage of large-scale exploration due to road right approval, complex long-tail conditions, mixed human and vehicle traffic, and fluctuations in order density. The commercial closed loop mainly manifests as phased and regional 'local closed loops'.

Overall, the industry has transitioned from 'able to run' to 'able to replicate and run'. The evaluation loop should not only look at demonstration mileage but also observe replicable deployment cycles, remote takeover rates, effective hours per vehicle, the relative discount of comprehensive cost per kilometer compared to labor costs, as well as the health of SLA fulfillment and contract structure. Only when these indicators are repeatedly verified across different cities and customers does it mean that the technical and commercial loops have entered a sustainable scale-out phase.

Against the backdrop of unstable road rights, challenges in long tail conditions such as at night and in rain or snow, and some companies trading volume for low prices or even 'strategic losses', competition in the industry will shift from 'technological feasibility' to 'scaling up and sustainable profitability'.

Firstly, security and reliability remain fundamental hard constraints. Enterprises need to steadily reduce takeover rates and unsafe event rates in complex scenarios such as at night, during rain or snow, against backlight, and in dense pedestrian and vehicle traffic. They should solidify capabilities into auditable metrics through systematic certifications such as functional safety, expected functional safety, and cybersecurity, trading quantifiable security performance for more stable road rights and customer trust.

Secondly, the cost reduction of the entire vehicle and full-stack operations will determine the economy per unit mileage. By solidifying and integrating sensors, centralizing domain control with vehicle-cloud collaborative computing power, standardizing platform-based chassis and upper installations, BOM can be reduced. At the same time, on the operational side, strengthen management of energy and consumables, predictive maintenance, insurance, and financial leasing optimization, as well as service network layout, to build a predictable and controllable full life cycle TCO.

Secondly, the portability of ODD and 'template-based city opening' will become key to magnifying advantages. Relying on high-fidelity simulation and data flywheel, different cities and parks can be abstracted into reusable scenario packages and policy libraries. This compresses the cycle from signing to stable operation into weeks, forming barriers with replication speed and marginal cost advantages.

Meanwhile, fleet-level operational capability will become the decisive factor. Intelligent scheduling and formation management need to reduce idling and waiting times, deeply integrating with the cargo owner's TMS, WMS, and OMS to achieve end-to-end online order, capacity, and settlement processes. Under a compliant framework, through one-to-many remote monitoring, human input can be precisely directed towards a very small number of long-tail instantaneous tasks.

Governance coordination will also directly affect the scale cap. The path from demonstration zones to gradual gray release requires enterprises to use KPIs such as takeover rate, availability, and mileage density as a basis for policy formulation, enabling the road right-of-way, insurance, and liability determination mechanisms to more smoothly connect with business operations.

In terms of business models, the industry needs to shift from simply offering low prices to value pricing linked to service levels. Contract structures such as cost-saving sharing, minimum guarantees tied to performance, and other improvements can be adopted to enhance cash flow quality and gross profit structure, while avoiding price wars from eroding R&D and safety redundancy investments.

Finally, the assetization of data and models, along with ecological collaboration, will determine long-term compound interest rates and margin widths. Enterprises that can solidify data governance and training/simulation platforms across vehicle models and scenarios into stable engineering capabilities, and build a solid partnership network with OEMs, energy supply, mapping and V2X, insurance finance, and scenario operators, have more opportunities to achieve a positive cycle of 'running safer and cheaper'.

Overall, the leader in the next phase will not necessarily be the one with the lowest hardware prices, but rather a company that can continuously deliver fleet economics under measurable security metrics, possesses the capability for rapid cross-city replication, and has a healthy contract structure of 'technology + platform + operations'.