As of2022year10At the end of the month, the publicly tendered capacity for wind turbine equipment nationwide reached73.3 GWYear-on-year growth72.5%The bidding scale has far exceeded that of the whole year last year.2023Is the wind industry entering a prosperous cycle in 2024?2023How can the trend of annual wind power costs be predicted? Which wind power components have high barriers to entry? With the price of wind turbines continuously falling, will a price war continue? What is the outlook for future price trends? What are the main factors affecting the future competitiveness of wind power complete machine manufacturers? How strong is the overseas expansion capability of wind power complete machine manufacturers?
Frost & SullivanFrost & Sullivan, hereinafter referred to as ""Frost & SullivanXu Biao, Executive Director of Greater China, visited the Financial Program Center & 'Industry Investment Observation' on the CRICTV financial radio program to discuss the development of the wind power industry.
CCTV Financial Program Center
Q
AMost wind power equipment enterprises in the sector2022In the first three quarters of the year, there was a decline in performance. What are the reasons? As of2022year10At the end of the month, the publicly tendered capacity for wind turbine equipment nationwide reached73.3 GWYear-on-year growth72.5%The bidding scale has far exceeded that of the whole year last year.2023Is the year a period of prosperity for wind power?
The third quarter is the peak season for wind power equipment delivery. Looking at the year-on-year changes in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of this year, it is mainly due to a year-on-year decline in performance in the second and third quarters, which led to a downturn in the performance of both the complete wind turbine sector and the component sector during the first three quarters.
According to statistics from the National Energy Administration,2022year1 - 10Monthly new grid-connected installed capacity of wind power in China21.14 GWYear-on-year growth10.2%The delivery of the entire machine also follows trends in hoisting and grid connection. Wind turbines usually have1 - 2With a delivery cycle of [X] years, wind power equipment manufacturers delivered most of their orders this year from last year, while the tender prices for wind power were in a relatively steep decline phase at that time. Therefore, The main reason for the decline in the commercial performance of wind power equipment manufacturers this year is still the continuous decline in wind turbine bidding prices, which has led to a decrease in revenue. Coupled with the rise in the prices of bulk raw materials such as steel, copper, aluminum, and fiberglass upstream, this has also put significant downward pressure on profit growth.
In addition, although the wind power sector as a whole has seen a decline in performance, there are still significant differences in performance among different companies due to differences in product strategy, business structure, production and operational efficiency. For example, among the major wind turbine manufacturers, MingYang Smart Energy and Yunda Technology achieved double growth in revenue and profit in the first three quarters.
Among the major listed mainframe manufacturers, MingYang Smart is the one with the largest net profit scale and the highest growth rate in the first three quarters. It achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters.35.7Yuan, a year-on-year increase60.7%The increase in the company's fan delivery scale and the growth of outstanding orders have driven revenue growth. At the same time, the steady development of its new energy power station business has contributed significantly to profits through the expansion of the scale of under-construction power stations, as well as the growth in the scale and earnings of power station project transfers.
The tender volume for wind turbine equipment is a barometer of the prosperity of wind power development. This year's tender volume has reached its highest point in history, which also implies that wind power installations are2023The demand for the year has been confirmed and will be a major year for wind power installations. This is also confirmed by the order backlog of major wind power equipment companies. We expect2023The newly connected wind power capacity nationwide will reach approximately60GW.
From the perspective of manufacturers' operations, orders obtained during the current phase when wind power tender prices have declined rapidly have been basically delivered. This year3Since the beginning of this month, wind power public bidding prices have gradually stabilized. Therefore, the performance bottom of the wind power sector has basically been formed in the second and third quarters of this year. In the future, with the trend of increasing volume and stable prices, it can be confirmed that the wind power industry will enter a prosperous cycle.
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At present, offshore wind power has received attention. It is analyzed that as of2021At the end of the year, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China was only26.4 GW, accounting for less than1%There is still ample room for growth in the future. What's your opinion on this view? Additionally, how much demand remains for onshore wind power and how can it be estimated?
Compared to onshore wind power, offshore wind power has higher power generation efficiency, longer utilization hours, and saves more land resources. Moreover, with the continuous progress of wind power technology, developing offshore wind power has become a common trend in the global wind power industry. 2021In [year], among the total new installed capacity of wind power globally, offshore wind accounted for more than22%than2020year7%Significantly increased.
According to the China Meteorological Administration2009The results of the 2019 wind energy resource census show that the offshore water depth in China5reach25rice area50The potential for offshore wind power development at metres height is about2100 million kilowatts, that is200GW;50rice is here70m height. The potential for offshore wind power development is about5100 million kilowatts, that is500 GWIn addition, with the continuous development of floating offshore wind platform technology, the development of offshore wind resources in deep seas is becoming increasingly mature. According to incomplete statistics, in China's deep seas, which are generally considered to be water depths exceeding50In the rice-growing area, wind energy reserves reach1,268 GWPotential offshore wind resources are abundant.
2022year4The State Council issued the "Outline for the High-Quality Development of Meteorology (2022—2035(2019), clearly proposing to strengthen the census of climate resources and their planned utilization.2021year12In the month, the China Meteorological Administration also signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the National Energy Administration, to jointly carry out a census of wind and solar energy resources. It is believed that under the opportunities presented by new wind power development technologies, a new round of assessment of China's offshore wind resources will further increase the overall amount of available resources for development.
In comparison with the rich resources of offshore wind power in our country, although the installed capacity has significantly increased, there is still enormous room for growth.
According to the assessment of China Meteorological Administration, China is in50The onshore wind power resources at a height of metres are about23.8ten million billion, that is2,380 GWAs of2022End of year appointment300GWCumulative installed capacity, and onshore wind turbines also exceed2,000 GWDevelopment potential, based on new additions each year60GWThe development speed, and it also exceeds30The development cycle of [a certain period], which still does not take into account the market for the renovation and upgrading of old wind turbines.
Of course, the meteorological bureau's assessment is only an estimate of the total wind energy resources in our country from a macroscopic perspective. The actual exploitable wind energy resources still depend on more detailed micro-site selection, especially considering terrain, surface coverings, and actual power grid conditions, before they can be ultimately realized.
Therefore, in the critical phase of achieving China's dual carbon goals in the future, we will continue to adhere to the development strategy that equally emphasizes land and sea areas to promote the coordinated and rapid development of China's wind power industry.
Q
Bearings are the core components of wind power, mainly consisting of five major parts: main shaft bearings, pitch bearings, generator bearings, etc. Among them, the localization of main shaft bearings is a supply pain point due to high technical barriers. Where are the bearings' barriers? What other wind power components have relatively high barriers?
Like all other advanced equipment key component areas, the key technologies of wind turbine bearings are mainly reflected in design, materials, anti-corrosion, and sealing. This ensures their fault-free operation for a long time.13,000hour Above, and95%The above reliability design requirements; materials are also highly demanding in terms of hardenability, quenching properties, and process adaptability.
Technical barriers are indeed the primary industry barrier in the bearing industry, especially in the wind turbine main shaft industry. The design, manufacturing, and testing of main shafts involve a large number of key technologies. For example, how to improve the cleanliness of bearing steel, reduce the content and size of inclusions in the steel, enhance the uniformity of carbides, thereby increasing their fatigue resistance life, involves metal content ratios, surface treatment technology, and precision machining technology. This in turn involves larger and more precise processing and testing equipment, which have created technical barriers to the localization of main bearings. This issue is particularly prominent under the trend towards larger and more offshore wind turbines.
In addition, the enterprises covered have obtained a large number of patent technologies from extensive business practices, forming a technological advantage. Especially for the research and development and production processes of mid- to high-end bearings, which are complex and require long-term sufficient technical accumulation. At the same time, host manufacturers have very high requirements for the reliability of wind power bearings, with strict access inspections and long verification cycles. Bearing enterprises need a long cycle to gain recognition from complete machine manufacturers, from initial contact, inquiry, and quotation, to product passing various tests, and finally to the approval of the production process and entering the mass supply stage. Existing enterprises have already developed strong customer loyalty with their clients, creating high barriers for new entrants.
Apart from the main shaft bearings, there are not many major obstacles to the localization of most components. However, carbon fiber, which may be used for wind turbine blades, still faces certain barriers.
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Wind turbine sets consist of numerous components, with raw material costs accounting for a high proportion of the main component parts. The raw materials for onshore wind turbines and their main accessories are mainly steel and concrete, while those for offshore wind turbines are primarily steel.2023How can the trend of annual wind power costs be predicted? What factors determine whether component manufacturers can transfer costs?
Judging from the price trend this year, the prices of major raw materials are in a downward channel. Taking medium and heavy plate general steel as an example, it has already2021year5month6,000yuan/The level has dropped to about4,000yuan/tons. In the past, the rise in raw material prices was mainly due to tight supply. It is expected that with the clarification of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies, raw material supply will remain relatively sufficient in the future.2023The annual wind power manufacturing cost is expected to show a steady downward trend.
Generally speaking, for component manufacturers, the ability to transfer costs downstream depends on their bargaining power with customers and the terms of supply contracts. The bargaining power is mainly affected by the concentration of suppliers to downstream customers and product supply barriers. Currently, in addition to the supply of mainframe bearings, wind turbine manufacturers still have a higher bargaining power, with cost transmission generally from the mainframe manufacturers to component manufacturers.
Q
Price of the fan2020It has been continuously falling since the beginning of the year.2022year9In the past month, the average public bidding price of wind turbines has dropped1808yuan/kWcompared with the same period last year2368yuan/kWDecreased23.65%Will the price war continue? What is the outlook for future price trends?
In the current wind power development in China, especially this year when wind power has entered a period of full parity, the weight of price factors in the tendering and evaluation rules for wind power developers generally exceeds50%Moreover, most projects use the lowest price as the benchmark for winning bids, resulting in a strong correlation between winning bid results and prices. In such an environment, it is difficult to change the general downward trend in wind turbine prices. Additionally, from the perspective of main engine manufacturers, the large-scale deployment of units has somewhat diluted costs, giving them more flexibility in pricing.
Judging from the overall price trend this year, the extent of price decline has been compared to2021The year-on-year expansion has narrowed significantly, and the sequential growth rate has basically remained at1,800 - 1,950interval,4The quarterly figure may still see a certain decline, and it is expected that the trend will be one of steady decline rather than a significant drop at parity levels over the past two years.
Price competition is unsustainable, and breaking away from it has become a consensus and goal pursued by domestic wind turbine mainframe manufacturers. Tendering for turbine prices has also tended to be rational. Mainframe manufacturers are also enhancing their competitiveness in projects through industrial investment locally and win-win cooperation. The recent tender results for projects by development enterprises such as Datang, China Resources, and China Energy Conservation have also demonstrated a preference for local enterprise mainframe manufacturers involved in the projects.
Q
What are the main factors for the future competitiveness of wind power complete machine manufacturers? How is the overseas expansion capability of wind power complete machine manufacturers viewed?
Based on our research and judgment of China's wind power industry, we believe that for wind turbine manufacturers, future competitiveness mainly depends on two highlights: first, technological innovation capabilities; second, supply chain capabilities.
Firstly, the wind power industry is still in a stage of rapid development both in China and globally. Promoting the continuous reduction of wind power cost per kilowatt-hour and enhancing the price competitiveness of wind power are the driving forces for the sustainable development of the industry. The most important factor behind this is the continuous reduction in the cost of wind power equipment.
Currently, wind turbines on various technical routes are also continuously undergoing product iteration and innovation to meet the efficient operation requirements under different operating environments and resource conditions. For complete machine manufacturers, only by achieving technological advantages through innovation can they gain significant cost efficiency advantages, thereby greatly enhancing the attractiveness of their products to wind power development and operation enterprises.
Secondly, based on technological innovation, how to transform technical advantages into real corporate competitiveness requires enterprises to have strong control over the supply chain in the manufacturing process. This can actually be done very well on AppleiPhoneThere is excellent verification at the top. In addition to continuous technological innovation, it is precisely Apple's strong control over the supply chain that has translated technological innovation into product advantages, enabling Apple to capture nearly90%Profit. Raw material costs account for more than70%It has always been the key for complete machine manufacturers to gain a cost advantage, especially during the global supply chain tensions experienced in the past two years, which has made this point even more important.
The trend for Chinese wind turbine complete machine manufacturers to go global is an inevitable development and a path that major manufacturers are following. The dual carbon goal is a global consensus, and wind power, as an important driving force for achieving this goal, is a significant area of renewable energy development worldwide. Especially after the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe has further significantly accelerated its energy transition and development of wind power.
The export of wind turbines in China has been climbing year by year, making it a major force in the global wind power equipment supply. For complete machine manufacturers going global, due to the lack of a relatively complete operating record for Chinese turbines in overseas markets, customers may have certain doubts about them from a risk perspective. In addition, during the project completion process, complete machine manufacturers need to be familiar with the policy and regulatory environments of various countries, as well as participate in many aspects such as financing, certification, logistics, and construction installation, which pose significant challenges to enterprises.
At the same time, the implementation of 'manufacturing localization' in many countries and regions around the world has placed additional demands on Chinese complete machine manufacturers. To achieve success in going global, Chinese complete machine manufacturers still have a long way to go and need to accumulate more project experience. There are currently manyAFan manufacturers and equipment enterprises listed on the stock market choose to issue in EuropeGDRWe believe that going global for Chinese enterprises is a great strategy. through issuanceGDRReceiving recognition from overseas investors can better support enterprises' going global from the perspectives of capital and market understanding.
*This program has been broadcast on third-party platforms with the title Is the opportunity for the wind power industry arriving? The domestic wind turbine installation capacity has entered a long-term prosperous cycle. >> (Click on "Read the Original Text" at the end of the article to listen to this episode).
