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MEDIA COVERAGE
2022/04/20
Blue Whale Finance | Does the HPV vaccine only require one injection? The proven effectiveness is linked to a hot market behind insufficient supply
Blue Whale Finance | Does the HPV vaccine only require one injection? The proven effectiveness is linked to a hot market behind insufficient supply
Frost & Sullivan Insights
On April 11th, a press release titled "A single dose of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine can effectively prevent cervical cancer" published on the official website of the World Health Organization (WHO) attracted attention. Affected by the news, on April 14th, related stocks fluctuated and fell. The stock prices of Zhifei Biotech, which mainly acts as an agent for Merck & Co.'s HPV vaccine, the first domestic manufacturer of HPV vaccine, and Watson Biotech, whose bivalent HPV vaccine was just approved in March this year, dropped by 14.19%, 9.46%, and 3.08% respectively.
Will this incident change China's HPV vaccination plan? What impact will it have on related enterprises and industries? Currently, the National Health Commission is conducting a comprehensive study on including HPV vaccination in the national immunization program and gradually promoting HPV vaccination among eligible populations. Once included in the free program, will HPV face a sharp drop in price, affecting corporate profits? Yang Tianxin, a healthcare industry analyst at Frost & Sullivan (hereinafter referred to as "Frost & Sullivan") for Greater China, was interviewed by Blue Whale Finance to discuss the future development of the HPV track.
HPV vaccine only requires one dose? The protection efficacy has been proven, but behind the supply shortage lies a popular track , Frost & Sullivan , 8 minutes
Blue Whale Finance
On April 11th, a press release titled "A single dose of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine can effectively prevent cervical cancer" published on the official website of the World Health Organization (WHO) attracted attention.
As the incident escalated, affected by the news, on April 14th, related stocks fluctuated and fell. The stock prices of Zhifei Biotech, which mainly acts as an agent for Merck & Co.'s HPV vaccine, the first domestic manufacturer of HPV vaccine, and Watson Biotech, whose bivalent HPV vaccine was just approved in March this year, dropped by 14.19%, 9.46% and 3.08% respectively. As of the close on April 18th, Zhifei Biotech continued its decline by 2.16%, Wanta Biotech rose by 2.18%, and Watson Biotech rose by 8.72%.
Will China's HPV vaccination plan change? What impact will it have on related enterprises and industries?
Can HPV vaccine be given only once?
The incident originated from a press release published on the WHO official website on April 11th, which pointed out that from April 4th to April 7th, the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) held a meeting to review the evidence for a single-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. The conclusion was that a single dose of HPV vaccine can provide reliable protection, with effects comparable to those of two or three doses.
SAGE recommended the following immunization schedule: women aged 9 - 14 years (the priority population) receive one or two doses; women aged 15 - 20 years receive one or two doses; women over 21 years old receive two doses (at intervals of 6 months).
However, the press release also pointed out that SAGE's new recommendations are based on concerns about the slow introduction of HPV vaccines into the immunization program and low coverage rates among the general population, especially in poorer countries. Single-dose vaccination is less costly, occupies fewer resources, and is easier to manage.
WHO Assistant Director-General Nono Simelela pointed out, "I firmly believe that eliminating cervical cancer is possible. In 2020, the WHO launched the Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative, and this single-dose recommendation may enable us to achieve our goal of vaccinating 90% of girls before the age of 15 by 2030 more quickly."
The possibility of implementing single-dose HPV vaccination in China may be relatively low
Will WHO's recommendations on HPV affect the vaccination of HPV vaccines in China? In this regard, Wei Lihui, a professor of obstetrics and gynecology at Peking University People's Hospital, pointed out, "The vaccination of HPV vaccines in China has just begun, and the current coverage rate is not high. Currently, there are only data from clinical trials, and there is a lack of real-world research data in China. As there is evidence-based recommendation for only one dose of HPV vaccine globally, I think more evidence is needed before recommending its implementation in China."
According to Wei Lihui, currently, we still recommend the three-dose vaccination schedule according to the vaccination plan approved in the instructions of the National Medical Products Administration. The domestic bivalent vaccine is administered in two doses for children aged 9 - 14 years.
A research report from Pacific Securities pointed out, "The possibility of implementing single-dose HPV vaccination in China is very small."
The research report pointed out that the possibility of the domestic single-dose method being accepted by the drug regulatory authorities is relatively low. Judging from the historical adoption of WHO's recommendations on HPV by the domestic national drug regulatory authorities, the low acceptance possibility of the single-dose method is mainly due to the lack of sufficient proof of its protection efficacy. Historically, after GlaxoSmithKline and Merck & Co. launched two HPV vaccines, WHO recommended using persistent infection data to replace cervical precancerous lesion grade II (CIN II) as the clinical endpoint. The purpose of the recommendation was to reduce the time of HPV vaccine clinical trials. However, considering safety and protection efficacy, the Chinese drug regulatory authorities adhere to CIN II as the clinical endpoint (bivalent HPV), thus effectively ensuring the protective effect of the vaccine. From this perspective, the possibility of the single-dose method being accepted is low.
Yang Tianxin, an analyst at Frost & Sullivan for Greater China Healthcare Industry
Yang Tianxin, an analyst at Frost & Sullivan, said that the immunization schedule of vaccines requires a large amount of long-term clinical trial data as support. Any change means that clinical trials, data analysis, and registration procedures need to be carried out again, which will take a lot of time. Before that, each HPV vaccine will continue to be vaccinated according to the currently approved immunization schedule. However, in the future, it is not excluded that existing manufacturers may change the immunization schedule or new manufacturers may be approved with a reduced number of doses for marketing.
In response to this incident, Wanta Biotech announced: Under the current national drug regulatory policies, if changes such as the number of vaccination doses are made, a series of clinical, data support, and registration change procedures need to be fulfilled, which takes a certain amount of time and has no significant impact on the company's operating performance in the short term.
Zhifei Biotech also said that the current immunization schedule for the four-valent and nine-valent HPV vaccines marketed in China is three doses, and this plan is based on the indications approved from domestic clinical research data.
Currently, there is an insufficient supply of HPV vaccines
As of now, there are a total of 5 HPV vaccines marketed in China, namely GlaxoSmithKline's bivalent HPV vaccine, Merck & Co.'s quadrivalent and nonavalent HPV vaccines, Wanta Biotech's bivalent HPV vaccine, and Watson Biotech's bivalent HPV vaccine. The latter two enterprises are local Chinese companies. And Zhifei Biotech is the exclusive domestic agent for Merck & Co.'s quadrivalent and nonavalent HPV vaccines.
“Currently, the Chinese HPV vaccine market is in a state of supply falling short of demand. In other words, even if we calculate only one dose for eligible women, the current vaccine supply is still seriously insufficient, and this does not take into account men.” Yang Tianxin said.
According to a research report by Guosen Securities, there are approximately 360 million eligible women aged 9 to 45 years old in China (about 120 million urban eligible women). Since the introduction of HPV products into China in 2017, the total number of batches issued is about 65 million, equivalent to about 20 million doses, and the overall population penetration rate is about 5.5% (the urban eligible female penetration rate is about 16.5%), which is at a low level.
Yang Tianxin pointed out, “The single-dose method” does not deny that the effect of three doses is stronger than one dose. Therefore, even if a reduced number of doses are approved for marketing in the future, some eligible people will still choose to get vaccinated with three doses, just as the bivalent HPV vaccine can already prevent 70% of cervical cancers, but most eligible people are still willing to get vaccinated with the nonavalent HPV vaccine. Therefore, the “single-dose method” has limited impact on the production capacity layout and planning of enterprises. Each enterprise still needs to increase its production capacity as much as possible to meet the huge market demand.
Entering the immunization program helps quickly boost corporate revenue
It is worth noting that in February last year, the National Health Commission's “Reply to Proposal No. 8996 of the Third Session of the 13th National People's Congress” mentioned that it would conduct a comprehensive study on including HPV vaccination in the national immunization program and gradually promote HPV vaccination among eligible populations.
Some market participants are worried that once included in the free program, will HPV face a sharp drop in price, affecting corporate profits?
In fact, since 2021, more and more cities and provinces have introduced policies related to free vaccination of domestic bivalent HPV vaccines (Xinkening from Wanta Biotech in Xiamen), including Ordos in Inner Mongolia, Xiamen in Fujian, Chengdu in Sichuan, Jinan in Shandong, Wuxi in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and the whole province of Hainan. According to the relevant financial reports of vaccine provider Wanta Biotech, Xinkening's sales revenue in 2020 was only 870 million yuan, but it grew rapidly in 2021, reaching 5.75 billion yuan.
Yang Tianxin pointed out, “Judging from the current situation of supply falling short of demand for HPV vaccines in China, as long as the production capacity of enterprises keeps up, entering the immunization program will not affect the profit of enterprises but can quickly boost corporate revenue.”
“The starting point of WHO SAGE (Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization) proposing the ‘single-dose method’ is more about allocating limited production capacity to more women and promoting the global HPV vaccination process. This also reflects WHO's emphasis on HPV vaccines.” Yang Tianxin believes that based on this, the HPV track will still be one of the popular tracks in the future, and there is an urgent need for more enterprises that can provide HPV vaccines to join together to increase production capacity and benefit those who need vaccination in China and even globally.
*This article is reprinted from Blue Whale Finance, authored by Tu Jun, with the original title "HPV vaccine only requires one dose? The protection efficacy has been proven, but behind the supply shortage lies a popular track".
MEDIA COVERAGE
2022/04/13
International Tobacco Journal | National Standard Draft for Soliciting Comments Released, E-cigarette Industry Welcomes Strong Supervision
International Tobacco Journal | National Standard Draft for Soliciting Comments Released, E-cigarette Industry Welcomes Strong Supervision
Insights from Frost & Sullivan
Recently, the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued the "Measures for the Administration of Electronic Cigarettes" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures"), clearly stating that "the sale of flavored electronic cigarettes other than tobacco-flavored ones and those with self-addable atomizers is prohibited." The "Measures" will come into effect on May 1, 2022. Along with the "Measures," the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration also released the national standard for "electronic cigarettes" (second draft for soliciting opinions). On April 8th, People's Daily published an article to strengthen regulatory control over electronic cigarettes.
What impact will strict compliance requirements have on the short-term and long-term development of the industry? Will the regulation of electronic cigarettes as tobacco-related products affect the expansion of offline specialty stores by major companies? The second draft for soliciting opinions has clear restrictions on nicotine content and concentration. Will such restrictions help improve companies' R&D capabilities? Frost & Sullivan's (Frost & Sullivan, abbreviated as "Frost & Sullivan") Greater China Executive Director Xiang Wei recently interviewed with Tobacoo Journal International (TJI) to discuss the future development direction of the electronic cigarette industry under strong regulation.
International Tobacco Magazine
Q: The two recent solicitation drafts aimed at regulating the electronic cigarette industry. What impact will strict compliance requirements have on the short-term and long-term development of the industry? For startups, will it lead to increased difficulty in financing?
Xiang Wei: In the short term, the impact of strict compliance requirements on the industry is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
1) Tax growth leads to increased costs for electronic cigarette companies, raising the industry entry threshold
Firstly, China's tobacco industry generates nearly one trillion in tax each year. If electronic cigarettes are taxed like cigarettes, their costs will significantly increase, with some of the cost increases being passed on to consumers, potentially leading to higher terminal prices for electronic cigarettes. Secondly, before the industry regulations were introduced, electronic cigarettes were only taxed as ordinary consumer goods, resulting in a lower burden from taxes. In the future, the compliance of electronic cigarettes will pose significant challenges for small-scale practitioners, as taxes will raise the industry entry threshold and capital requirements.
2) Standardization of offline stores has a significant impact on offline channels in the short term
Before the introduction of electronic cigarette regulatory regulations, most e-cigarette store owners did not obtain tobacco sales licenses, making it difficult to effectively supervise e-cigarette offline sales. In the short term, the new regulations increase the uncertainty of e-cigarette brand channel development, possibly leading to a large number of offline stores closing down for rectification, which could have a short-term impact on the domestic e-cigarette market. In the future, under the guidance of the new regulations, e-cigarette sales stores will operate more standardly.
3) Small players in the industry will be eliminated, increasing technical barriers; leading companies begin to expand into more overseas markets
The domestic e-cigarette industry has developed rapidly in the past two years, with unclear regulatory regulations, low entry thresholds, and many industry players. The quality of products from non-leading companies varies widely. In the short term, a large number of small-scale and unregulated enterprises will be phased out, and the introduction of policies will inevitably accelerate the elimination of small brands. The market's demand for product technical barriers has significantly increased, and it will also prompt some leading e-cigarette industry companies to try to open up more overseas markets.
In the medium to long term, the proposal of electronic cigarette regulatory regulations plays a positive role in establishing a healthy industry development mechanism and promoting the orderly development of the e-cigarette industry. The environment of China's e-cigarette industry needs to be regulated and standardized, and the chaos brought about by wild development will change under the influence of policies. Non-compliant products and brands will be accelerated in elimination, ultimately contributing to the long-term development of China's e-cigarette industry. As e-cigarette policy supervision steadily progresses, the industry will enter a period of rapid growth, which can not only protect the health of minors and ensure national tax revenue but also maintain China's international competitiveness in this field.
Electronic cigarettes have their particularities, and regulatory policies are only meant to regulate the industry and not to stifle the entire industry; on the contrary, they will promote healthy development of the industry. China has about 300 million smokers, but in 2020, the penetration rate of e-cigarettes in China was only about 2.1%, indicating that there is still huge investment potential in the e-cigarette industry in China. The introduction of electronic cigarette regulatory policies is an inevitable measure to regulate the healthy development of the industry and enhance healthy competition. For emerging companies seeking financing, investors will also discover the market prospects from a sustainable development perspective. Companies with R&D capabilities, stable product supply capabilities, compliance, and product layout advantages will attract more capital.
Q: Will the regulation of electronic cigarettes as tobacco-related products affect the expansion of offline specialty stores by major companies?
Xiang Wei: Currently, sellers of electronic cigarettes do not need to obtain a tobacco monopoly license. However, according to the Tobacco Monopoly Law, if they do not have a tobacco monopoly license, they cannot engage in tobacco business or sales. The extent to which the expansion of offline specialty stores is affected will depend on the scope of implementation of electronic cigarette regulatory policies.
Currently, the offline channels of major companies are relatively complete, and in the future, the e-cigarette sales network is expected to further expand to major supermarkets, tobacco hotels, and other stores with tobacco business licenses for unified distribution and sales. At that time, the offline e-cigarette market will be reshuffled, and non-compliant private sellers will be eliminated from the market.
Q: The second draft for soliciting opinions on the national standard for electronic cigarettes has clear restrictions on nicotine content and concentration. Will such restrictions help improve companies' R&D capabilities?
Xiang Wei: We learned that the second draft for soliciting opinions on the national standard for electronic cigarettes has restricted the nicotine content and concentration in atomizers. The nicotine (nicotine) concentration should not exceed 20 mg/g, and the total nicotine (nicotine) content should not exceed 200 mg. Currently, a certain proportion of electronic cigarette products on the domestic market exceed the concentration limits in the draft. In the short term, stricter control over the nicotine content in electronic cigarettes will inevitably eliminate a series of products with substandard concentrations.
Therefore, the restriction on nicotine content in e-liquid will increase the requirements for companies' supply chain and production cost control. Upstream supply chain management and production quality assurance systems will become one of the core competencies of new tobacco companies in the future. This will further encourage companies to improve their own R&D capabilities, and those that prioritize e-liquid technology will have greater advantages.
Q: Many electronic cigarette companies in Shenzhen do not operate domestically. Will the introduction of Chinese regulations also affect their business?
Xiang Wei: As a world base for electronic cigarettes, Shenzhen currently produces and OEMs more than 90% of the global electronic cigarette industry. Europe, America, and South Korea are the largest e-cigarette markets in the world and also the main export destinations for Shenzhen's e-cigarette OEM factories. Currently, foreign e-cigarette regulatory policies are becoming increasingly strict, and Shenzhen's e-cigarette companies will have to apply for relevant certifications and raise product standards to cope with different national regulatory policies. The introduction of Chinese regulations has limited impact on Shenzhen's e-cigarette companies that mainly focus on overseas markets. On March 11th this year, the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued the "Measures for the Administration of Electronic Cigarettes," stipulating that starting from May 1st, the sale of flavored electronic cigarettes other than tobacco-flavored ones and those with self-addable atomizers is prohibited. This means that China's e-cigarette industry is facing strong regulation, with fruit-flavored e-cigarette products exiting the market, and the market will undergo further integration in the future.
The introduction of Chinese regulations has brought the stable development of the e-cigarette industry onto a legal and standardized track. Major countries and regions with a large global share of electronic cigarettes, including Europe, America, and South Korea, have issued clear policy guidelines and regulatory measures for electronic cigarettes. With the later implementation of the second draft for soliciting opinions on the national standard for electronic cigarettes, it will be beneficial for e-cigarette companies that focus on product quality. In the future, e-cigarette companies will compete in terms of compliance and technology.
MEDIA COVERAGE
2022/04/07
CBN | Domestic daily new infections exceed 20,000 for the first time, accelerating development of COVID-19 drugs on multiple routes
CBN | Domestic daily new infections exceed 20,000 for the first time, accelerating development of COVID-19 drugs on multiple routes
Frost & Sullivan Insights
From April 6th from 00:00 to 24:00, there were 1,284 new confirmed COVID-19 cases and 21,711 new asymptomatic infections in China. Among them, Shanghai added 322 new local confirmed cases and 19,660 asymptomatic infections; as of now, the cumulative number of positive infected individuals reported for this round of the epidemic in Shanghai has exceeded 100,000.
In response to the high incidence of this round of the epidemic in China, it is urgent to develop antiviral drugs that can combat COVID-19. Xu Chao, a pharmaceutical industry analyst at Frost & Sullivan (hereinafter referred to as 'Frost & Sullivan') for Greater China, was interviewed by CBN to discuss the research and development status of COVID-19 drugs by major pharmaceutical companies.
CBN
On April 5th, the number of new COVID-19 infections in China exceeded 20,000 for the first time, including 1,383 new confirmed cases and 19,089 new asymptomatic infections.
On the same day, the number of new COVID-19 infections in Shanghai approached 20,000; since March, the number of reported infected individuals in Shanghai is about to exceed the 100,000 mark (latest data: already exceeded 100,000).
In response to the high incidence of this round of the epidemic in China, it is urgent to develop antiviral drugs that can combat COVID-19. On April 6th, Kuaipo Pharmaceutical announced the global multi-center clinical data results of its oral COVID-19 drug Pekluram for treating mild to moderate COVID-19 cases, bringing hope to the research and development of small molecule drugs for COVID-19 in China.
As of the close on April 6th, the Hong Kong stock price of Kuaipo Pharmaceutical rose by more than 100%; the Hong Kong stock prices of Tengsheng Bio and Clover Biopharmaceutical also rose by more than 10%.
From the key data results of the Phase III global multi-center clinical trial of Pekluram announced by Kuaipo Pharmaceutical, for 730 patients who received at least one day of treatment, Pekluram reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 50% compared to the control group; for 693 patients who received more than seven days of treatment, Pekluram reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 100% compared to the control group.
However, the above research data are still relatively preliminary and face challenges such as insufficient sample size for clinical research data. Kuaipo Pharmaceutical responded to CBN reporters by saying: 'Detailed data are being compiled and will be disclosed through publishing articles or conference submissions.'
Xu Chao, Analyst at Frost & Sullivan Greater China Pharmaceutical Industry
'Pfizer's Paxlovid and Merck's Molnupiravir have been successively approved, and we look forward to domestic oral COVID-19 drugs benefiting patients as soon as possible. Currently, Lianhua Qingwen Capsules and Jinhua Qinggan Granules in China can be used for COVID-19 treatment. The antiviral drug Remdesivir/Alberta Ferrovir (RBAF) combination therapy from Tengsheng Bio has been approved, and several neutralizing antibody therapies and oral COVID-19 treatment drugs are in clinical trial stages.' said Xu Chao, an analyst at the research institution Frost & Sullivan for the pharmaceutical industry to CBN reporters.
In the 'Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (Trial Version 9)', Pfizer's small molecule oral COVID-19 drug Paxlovid and Tengsheng Bio's monoclonal antibody RBAF/Remdesivir injection have been included. Currently, biotech companies including Junshi Biosciences are also developing related COVID-19 antibody drugs and seeking clinical trials and marketization in China.
Yu Zilong, Partner at PwC China Life Sciences, told CBN reporters that there are currently three main technical routes for COVID-19 drug research and development, including drugs that block the virus from entering cells (mostly antibody drugs), drugs that inhibit viral replication (mostly small molecule drugs), and drugs that regulate the human immune system (traditional Chinese medicine formulas, etc.). Kuaipo Pharmaceutical's oral drug Pekluram belongs to small molecule drugs.
'With the launch of Pfizer's small molecule oral COVID-19 drug Paxlovid in China, small molecule drugs continue to heat up, which will drive the development of various emerging technologies in this field in the long run, including artificial intelligence, PROTAC, molecular adhesives, etc.' Yu Zilong told CBN reporters.
Phase III clinical studies of domestic small molecule COVID-19 drugs are also underway. Last month, the Phase III clinical trial of VV16, a COVID-19 antiviral small molecule drug developed by Junshi Biosciences, was initiated among subjects with moderate to severe COVID-19, and the first patient enrollment and dosing have been completed.
'The subsequent large number of production orders brought about by COVID-19 drug research and development pose higher requirements for capacity.' Yu Zilong told CBN reporters, 'Benefiting from the rapid production of CDMO companies, the time required to successfully develop a drug can be significantly shortened compared to the past, bringing opportunities for humanity to resist diseases. Therefore, in the near future, the CDMO business model is expected to be promising.'
He also said that in the long run, continuous improvement in local production technology brought about by COVID-19 will enable stronger adaptability, a more stable supply chain system, and more efficient delivery efficiency in global emergencies.
*This article is reprinted from 'CBN', authored by Qian Tongxin, with the original title 'Domestic Local Daily New Infections Exceed 20,000, Multiple Routes of COVID-19 Drug Development Accelerate'.
COMPANY NEWS
2022/04/03
Frost & Sullivan is invited to attend the 2024 Protective Gloves Industry Conference and Upstream and Downstream Supply and Demand Exchange
Frost & Sullivan is invited to attend the 2024 Protective Gloves Industry Conference and Upstream and Downstream Supply and Demand Exchange
Global Conference on Protective Gloves Industry and Upstream and Downstream Supply and Demand Exchange
In 2024, the global market share of protective gloves is still in a turbulent period, with risks of corporate market manipulation still present. How to maintain existing market shares, strive for cost reduction and efficiency improvement to ensure the continuity of new customer orders, while enhancing product quality, cost-price control, and diversification of products into key competitive factors for enterprises.
Against this backdrop, from March 20th to March 21st, the Global Conference on Protective Gloves Industry and Upstream and Downstream Supply and Demand Exchange, hosted by Longzhong Information, was successfully held in Zibo, Shandong. The conference gathered over a hundred protective gloves-related enterprises, providing an industry supply and demand exchange platform for protective glove products, authoritative technical experts sharing, and multi-dimensional analysis of the entire industry's development situation. Focusing on industry hotspots, assessing industry trends, and jointly seeking a healthy development path for the industry.
Ms. Miao Qidi, a consulting advisor at Frost & Sullivan (Frost & Sullivan, abbreviated as "Frost & Sullivan") Greater China, was invited to attend the conference and delivered a speech on "The Current Situation and Development Trends of Disposable Gloves Market."
Ms. Miao Qidi, Consulting Advisor at Frost & Sullivan Greater China
Ms. Miao Qidi briefly analyzed the global market, export markets, and production and sales environment for disposable gloves. She stated that the continuously mutating strains during the pandemic have led to repeated COVID-19 outbreaks, significantly increasing the demand for disposable gloves used for long-term care and emergency rescue. After changes in epidemic prevention and control policies, market demand has relatively weakened but shown long-term growth. It is expected that future supply and demand contradictions will ease with the release of production capacity, market prices will return to rationality, and sales revenue will remain optimistic in the long term.
Regarding the domestic market, as the impact of COVID-19 gradually subsides, the revenue and net profit margins of leading Chinese disposable medical glove companies led by Innovent Biomedical, Lanfan Medical, and Zhonghong Medical have been affected in the short term, and the supply and demand relationship in the medical glove market has gradually stabilized.
With the launch of innovative products, the improvement of residents' health and self-protection awareness, and the expansion of application scenarios, disposable gloves will embrace new growth opportunities. First, leading companies are building global R&D systems, collaborating with hospitals and other institutions to overcome new material and technology challenges, launching continuously iterating innovative products to tap into more market space, and creating a high-end, differentiated product system and matrix. Then, during the pandemic era, influenced by residents' enhanced health and self-protection awareness, market education, and other factors, the incremental demand is expected to settle into long-term increments over the next few years. At the same time, the rising demands for safety and cleanliness in food safety and high-precision manufacturing industries will also lead to widespread application of disposable gloves in these fields.
Looking globally, with the increasing demand for disposable medical gloves, global prices reached a peak in the first quarter of 2021. Among them, Malaysia is the main producer of disposable gloves globally and the largest exporter of rubber gloves. From 2022 to 2023, starting from December 1st, 2021, the United States imposed a 7.5% tariff on Chinese imports of medical gloves and a 28% tariff on non-medical gloves, leading to continuous growth in Malaysia's disposable glove sales. However, under the backdrop of fierce market competition in the later stages of the pandemic, Chinese manufacturers impacted the production and operation levels of Malaysian leading companies with their cost production and supply chain advantages. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers have significant advantages in technical level and product qualification certification, which is conducive to capturing more global market shares in the future.
From the perspective of global demand, the disposable glove market still has good growth potential. The outbreak of COVID-19 brought about a short-term surge in disposable glove demand. Then, during the pandemic era, the glove market experienced a short adjustment period. Global demand for disposable gloves declined compared to 2021 and 2020 in 2022, and is expected to resume positive growth around 2023. In addition, there is still significant room for development compared to overseas markets in the domestic glove market. Currently, the per capita glove consumption in China is far lower than the global average level. The annual per capita use of medical gloves in China is only 9 pairs, while the Netherlands, which has the highest per capita glove usage globally, can reach up to 317 pairs per person per year, about 35 times that of China, reflecting the inequality in global glove consumption. With strong economic development, population growth, and increasing awareness of the importance of hygiene, developing countries such as the Philippines, China, and Indonesia are expected to make increasingly greater contributions to the growing global glove consumption in the medium to short term.
Ms. Miao Qidi pointed out that China is in a stage of rapid growth in the disposable glove industry. Exporting to international markets is conducive to driving regional and full industrial chain development, aligning with the country's "Healthy China" top-level design, facilitating domestic and international dual circulation, and improving the global value chain position. On one hand, the prospects for the glove industry are still promising. After the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies in 2022, demand from overseas markets remained unchanged, and the export volume of nitrile gloves was several times that before the pandemic. Through policy encouragement, technological iteration, etc., the glove industry has become a regional supporting industry, driving the development of the entire industrial chain. On the other hand, there is a significant advantage in the export price of domestic nitrile gloves compared to Malaysia's glove prices. Leading companies have established raw material supply bases at home and abroad, connected the industrial chain to form stable raw material supply, and further strengthened their international competitive edge through a complete manufacturing system and rich and affordable product system, promoting the new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation and playing a crucial role in the world competition pattern.
In the past three years, global health incidents have led to explosive growth in people's demand for disposable gloves. With rising raw material prices and lack of production capacity, the average selling price of disposable gloves soared. As global epidemic prevention enters normalization, the once tight supply of disposable gloves has gradually improved, starting a new situation where supply exceeds demand. After the average selling price of disposable gloves hit a record high, it has gradually returned to a rational range. Ms. Miao Qidi believes that due to capacity expansion and gradual stabilization of demand, the glove market faces a phase of supply exceeding demand, and currently some channel sales prices are close to pre-pandemic levels. The relative stability of raw material prices this year is also conducive to the control of production costs and the continuous stability of profit levels for global glove enterprises.
COMPANY NEWS
2022/03/29
Frost & Sullivan analysts invited to attend Huawei's 2021 annual report launch event
Frost & Sullivan analysts invited to attend Huawei's 2021 annual report launch event
Huawei held its annual report press conference for 2021 on March 28, 2022, in Shenzhen. Analysts from Frost & Sullivan's Greater China region participated as special invitees.
According to Huawei's 2021 annual report, the company's overall operations were stable, achieving global sales revenue of 636.8 billion RMB and net profit of 113.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 75.9%. Looking ahead, Huawei continues to increase investment in research and development, reaching 142.7 billion RMB in 2021, accounting for 22.4% of the annual revenue, with cumulative R&D expenses exceeding 845 billion RMB over ten years.
Image source: Huawei official website
Guo Ping, rotating chairman of Huawei, pointed out: 'The overall business situation of the company meets expectations, with stable operator services, robust enterprise growth, rapid development of new industries in terminal services, and accelerated ecological construction.'
Meng Wanzhou, CFO of Huawei, stated: 'Our scale has reduced, but our profitability and cash flow generation capabilities have both been enhanced, and the company's ability to cope with uncertainties is continuously improving.' Thanks to the improvement in the profitability of its main business, Huawei's operating cash flow increased significantly in 2021, reaching 597 billion RMB; the asset-liability ratio dropped to 57.8%, and the resilience and elasticity of the overall financial structure have been strengthened.
Image source: Huawei official website
In 2021, Huawei achieved sales revenue of 281.5 billion RMB in the operator business sector. Huawei helped global operators deploy leading 5G networks, and third-party reports show that in 13 countries including Switzerland, Germany, Finland, the Netherlands, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia, Huawei's built 5G networks provide the best user experience. Huawei has signed over 3,000 commercial contracts for 5G industry applications with operators and partners, and 5G has been commercially deployed in industries such as manufacturing, mining, steel, ports, and healthcare.
Under the wave of digital transformation, Huawei's enterprise business has achieved rapid growth, achieving sales revenue of 1024 billion RMB. For key industries such as government, transportation, finance, energy, and manufacturing, Huawei has released 11 scenario-based solutions, established coal mines, smart highways, customs, and port armies, and integrated resources to efficiently serve customers. More than 700 cities around the world and 267 Fortune Global 500 companies have chosen Huawei for digital transformation, with the number of service and operational partners increasing to over 6,000.
Terminal services adhere to a consumer-centric approach, building a global ecosystem that connects everything intelligently and billions of devices, bringing full-scenario smart life experiences to consumers worldwide, achieving sales revenue of 2434 billion RMB. Smart wearables, smart screens, TWS headphones, and consumer cloud services have all continued to grow, with wearable device and smart screen services growing by more than 30% year-on-year. Huawei devices equipped with HarmonyOS exceed 220 million units, becoming the fastest-growing mobile operating system in the world.
In the past year, Huawei has adhered to the concepts of openness, collaboration, and altruism, focusing on building prosperous ecosystems for Euler, Ascend, and HarmonyOS, with over 8 million developers adopting Huawei's open platform, open-source software, and rich development tools to explore innovative business scenarios and models.
Interpretation by Frost & Sullivan analysts
1. Huawei's revenue in 2021 was 636.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 28.6%, but net profit reached 113.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 75.9%. On one hand, Huawei's smartphone business was affected by chip sanctions, resulting in nearly half a reduction in consumer business revenue. On the other hand, Huawei has basically stabilized its B-side business, and after selling its Honor terminal business in 2021, its net profit actually increased. In 2022, on the premise that smartphones cannot recover, Huawei needs to make more efforts to ensure stable profit growth.
2. Huawei's overseas revenue still accounted for about 35.1% of its total turnover in 2021, Considering that Huawei's smartphone business is actually basically unable to operate overseas, its enterprise and operator businesses may actually be growing.
3. Huawei's chip supply chain capability can currently maintain the operation of its B-side business well, but it still has difficulty solving the problem of mobile phone chips with higher space volume and performance requirements in the short term. Huawei's R&D investment in 2021 was about 142.7 billion RMB, ranking second globally, and we can reasonably infer that there is a large amount of R&D investment related to chips, aiming to solve chip supply problems in all aspects in the long term.
MEDIA COVERAGE
2022/03/28
China Energy News | Frost & Sullivan Jia Pang: Pumped storage remains the absolute mainstream in grid energy storage systems at present
China Energy News | Frost & Sullivan Jia Pang: Pumped storage remains the absolute mainstream in grid energy storage systems at present
On March 17, the construction of two pumped storage power stations under the State Grid, namely Zhejiang Taishun Pumped Storage Power Station and Jiangxi Fengxin Pumped Storage Power Station, began, signaling that the State Grid is one step closer to its pumped storage planning goals. According to the plan, the State Grid will start new pumped storage power stations with a capacity of over 20 million kilowatts during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. By 2025, the installed capacity of pumped storage in its operating area will exceed 50 million kilowatts, and by 2030, it will reach 100 million kilowatts. The Southern Power Grid also has ambitious plans, with its "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods respectively aiming to commission 5 million kilowatts and 15 million kilowatts of pumped storage, with the installed capacity reaching around 28 million kilowatts by 2030.
In the current era of intense interest in electrochemical energy storage, why does the power grid prefer pumped storage, and what kind of sparks could be ignited between the two? Mr. Jia Pang, Partner and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan's Greater China Region, was interviewed by China Energy News. Jointly explore the logic behind the enhanced layout of pumped storage through the integration of two networks.
This year's government work report proposes to advance the planning and construction of large-scale wind and solar power bases and their supporting regulating power sources, strengthen the construction of pumped storage power stations, and enhance the grid's capacity to absorb renewable energy generation.
On March 17, the construction of two pumped storage power stations under the State Grid, namely Zhejiang Taishun Pumped Storage Power Station and Jiangxi Fengxin Pumped Storage Power Station, began, signaling that the State Grid is one step closer to its pumped storage planning goals. According to the plan, the State Grid will start new pumped storage power stations with a capacity of over 20 million kilowatts during the '14th Five-Year Plan' period. By 2025, the installed capacity of pumped storage in its operating area will exceed 50 million kilowatts, and by 2030, it will reach 100 million kilowatts.
The Southern Power Grid is also ambitious, planning to commission 5 million kilowatts and 15 million kilowatts of pumped storage capacity during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods respectively, with the installed capacity of pumped storage reaching around 28 million kilowatts by 2030.
In the current era where electrochemical energy storage is extremely popular, why does the power grid prefer pumped storage, and what kind of sparks will be ignited between the two?
Essentially, it is the basic unit of the power grid
Since last year, the state has successively introduced electricity price policies for pumped storage power stations and medium- and long-term development plans for pumped storage. The State Grid Corporation of China has released six important measures to accelerate the development and construction of pumped storage. The combined positive effects of favorable policies and industry demand have continuously accelerated the development of pumped storage.
Industry insiders told reporters that pumped storage has the full-element characteristics of 'source-grid-load-storage', and is essentially a basic unit of the power grid. For the power system, pumped storage has great capacity and good benefits.
Jia Pang, Partner and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, told reporters that the development of electrochemical energy storage benefits mainly from the rapid development of the battery industry in recent years. It has characteristics such as a shorter construction cycle, low site selection requirements, and flexible scale. However, due to its economic and safety concerns, it is currently not capable of large-scale promotion on the power grid side.
Yang Meng, a senior power market researcher at the Planning and Research Department of Jin Feng Low Carbon Energy Design and Research Institute, believes that compared to electrochemical energy storage, pumped storage has the following advantages on the grid side: it can operate for over 60 years, far exceeding electrochemical energy storage represented by lithium batteries; it is large-scale and more suitable for system-level applications; it has relatively mature regulation experience and is convenient to dispatch.
"Although pumped storage is limited to some extent by site selection conditions and a longer construction period, its technology is mature, has a long service life, large capacity, stable operation, and significant cost advantages. It remains the absolute mainstream in grid energy storage systems at present," said Jia Pang.
The industry shows a new development trend
Jia Pang believes that in addition to trends such as a significant expansion in development scale, a substantial acceleration in construction speed, and deeper integration with new energy sources, the new situation of pumped storage capacity construction in the future will also be reflected in aspects such as expanding social capital participation and activating the market through price mechanism reforms.
"For example, the State Grid has clearly stated that it will open up its proposed pumped storage projects to the public. The cooperation model allows for one factory per negotiation and flexible selection, with social capital participating and controlling as needed. For social capital that is willing and capable, it can hold a controlling stake in the construction and management of power stations, establishing a co-construction and sharing mechanism with all parties involved in society to achieve win-win cooperation," Jia Pang told reporters.
According to Jia Pang, Guangdong Province has clarified the costs of energy storage and pumped storage power stations, as well as related fees for demand-side response. These costs are shared by all industrial and commercial users who directly participate in market transactions and whose electricity is purchased on behalf by grid companies. This is conducive to diverting costs to all downstream industrial and commercial users, meaning that grid companies or investors in pumped storage power stations will obtain a certain level of investment return, which will greatly boost their motivation to expand their investment scale.
"Both can arbitrage between peaks and valleys over a longer period, and provide almost all auxiliary services, offering a flexible profit model." Yang Meng also believes that pumped storage, as the most mature large-scale long-term energy storage method, is an important flexibility resource for the power system. After the incentive mechanism for flexibility capacity is established, investments in pumped storage will be guaranteed through advance agreement on capacity.
The power grid leads industrial development in two aspects
Under the guidance of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, the core feature of a new power system is that new energy becomes the main source of electricity supply. Energy storage devices can effectively smooth out power fluctuations generated by renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, making renewable energy relatively controllable.
Jia Pang stated that in the future, the power grid is expected to promote the better and faster construction of pumped storage stations from two main aspects. On one hand, the power grid should play its core hub role in the energy system, comprehensively and scientifically planning and deploying pumped storage stations to avoid coordination issues between station planning, ecological red line demarcation, territorial spatial planning, etc., which could affect the construction process and full utilization of the comprehensive benefits of pumped storage stations. On the other hand, the power grid should leverage its platform role in the market-oriented reform of electricity, further improving the pricing formation and channel mechanisms for pumped storage stations, promoting equal participation of stations in medium- and long-term electricity transactions, spot market transactions, and auxiliary service markets or supplementary mechanisms, enabling pumped storage stations to recover costs and obtain profits through the market.
Yang Meng stated that with the resolution of the bottleneck in pumped storage electricity prices, the enthusiasm of the State Grid and the Southern Power Grid for the development of pumped storage has reached an unprecedented level. However, the procedures for verifying planning in the early stages of projects are still relatively complex. It is recommended to simplify the process and further enhance the certainty of investment returns.
*This article is reprinted from 'China Energy News', authored by Han Yifei, with the original title 'State Grid and Southern Grid Recently Actively Promote Project Implementation —— Two Networks Strengthening Layout for Pumped Storage'.
MEDIA COVERAGE
2022/03/28
China Energy News | State Grid and Southern Power Grid are actively promoting project implementation recently — the two networks are strengthening their layout of pumped storage
China Energy News | State Grid and Southern Power Grid are actively promoting project implementation recently — the two networks are strengthening their layout of pumped storage
Frost & Sullivan insights
On March 17, the construction of two pumped storage power stations under the State Grid, namely Zhejiang Taishun Pumped Storage Power Station and Jiangxi Fengxin Pumped Storage Power Station, began, signaling that the State Grid is one step closer to its pumped storage planning goals. According to the plan, the State Grid will start new pumped storage power stations with a capacity of over 20 million kilowatts during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. By 2025, the installed capacity of pumped storage in its operating area will exceed 50 million kilowatts, and by 2030, it will reach 100 million kilowatts. The Southern Power Grid also has ambitious plans, with its "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods respectively aiming for the commissioning of 5 million kilowatts and 15 million kilowatts of pumped storage, with an installed capacity of around 28 million kilowatts by 2030.
In the current era of intense interest in electrochemical energy storage, why does the power grid prefer pumped storage, and what kind of sparks could be ignited between the two? Mr. Jia Pang, Partner and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan's Greater China Region, was interviewed by China Energy News. Jointly explore the logic behind the enhanced layout of pumped storage through the integration of the two networks.
China Energy News
This year's government work report proposes to advance the planning and construction of large-scale wind and solar power bases and their supporting regulating power sources, strengthen the construction of pumped storage power stations, and enhance the grid's capacity to absorb renewable energy generation.
On March 17, the construction of two pumped storage power stations under the State Grid, namely Zhejiang Taishun Pumped Storage Power Station and Jiangxi Fengxin Pumped Storage Power Station, began, signaling that the State Grid is one step closer to its pumped storage planning goals. According to the plan, the State Grid will start new pumped storage power stations with a capacity of over 20 million kilowatts during the '14th Five-Year Plan' period. By 2025, the installed capacity of pumped storage in its operating area will exceed 50 million kilowatts, and by 2030, it will reach 100 million kilowatts.
The Southern Power Grid is also ambitious, with plans to commission 5 million kilowatts and 15 million kilowatts of pumped storage capacity during the '14th Five-Year Plan' and '15th Five-Year Plan' periods respectively, aiming for a pumped storage installed capacity of around 28 million kilowatts by 2030.
In the current era where electrochemical energy storage is extremely popular, why does the power grid prefer pumped storage, and what kind of sparks will be ignited between the two?
Essentially, it is the basic unit of the power grid
Since last year, the state has successively introduced electricity price policies for pumped storage power stations and medium- and long-term development plans for pumped storage. The State Grid Corporation of China has released six important measures to accelerate the development and construction of pumped storage. The combination of favorable policies and industry demand has continuously accelerated the development of pumped storage.
Industry insiders told reporters that pumped storage has the full-element characteristics of 'source-grid-load-storage', and is essentially a basic unit of the power grid. For the power system, pumped storage has great capacity and good benefits.
Jia Pang, Partner and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, told reporters that the development of electrochemical energy storage benefits mainly from the rapid development of the battery industry in recent years. It has characteristics such as a shorter construction cycle, low site selection requirements, and flexible scale. However, due to its economic and safety concerns, it is currently not capable of large-scale promotion on the power grid side.
Yang Meng, a senior power market researcher at the Planning and Research Department of Jinfeng Low-carbon Energy Design and Research Institute, believes that compared to electrochemical energy storage, pumped storage has the following advantages on the grid side: it can operate for more than 60 years, far exceeding electrochemical energy storage represented by lithium batteries; it is large-scale and more suitable for system-level applications; it has relatively mature regulation experience and is convenient to dispatch.
"Although pumped storage is limited to some extent by site selection conditions and a longer construction period, its technology is mature, has a long service life, large capacity, stable operation, and significant cost advantages. It remains the absolute mainstream in grid energy storage systems at present," said Jia Pang.
The industry shows a new development trend
Jia Pang believes that in addition to trends such as a significant expansion in development scale, a substantial acceleration in construction speed, and deeper integration with new energy sources, the new situation of pumped storage capacity construction in the future will also be reflected in aspects such as expanding social capital participation and activating the market through price mechanism reforms.
"For example, the State Grid has clearly stated that it will open up its proposed pumped storage projects to the public. The cooperation model allows for one factory per negotiation and flexible selection, with social capital participating and controlling as needed. For social capital that is willing and capable, it can hold a controlling stake in the construction and management of power stations, establishing a co-construction and sharing mechanism with all parties involved in society to achieve win-win cooperation," Jia Pang told reporters.
According to Jia Pang, Guangdong Province has clarified the costs of energy storage and pumped storage power stations, as well as related fees for demand-side response. These costs are shared by all industrial and commercial users who directly participate in market transactions and whose electricity is purchased on behalf by grid companies. This is conducive to diverting costs to all downstream industrial and commercial users, meaning that grid companies or investors in pumped storage power stations will obtain a certain level of investment return, which will greatly boost their motivation to expand their investment scale.
"Both can arbitrage between peaks and valleys over a longer period, and provide almost all auxiliary services, offering a flexible profit model." Yang Meng also believes that pumped storage, as the most mature large-scale long-term energy storage method, is an important flexibility resource for the power system. After the incentive mechanism for flexibility capacity is established, investments in pumped storage will be guaranteed through advance agreement on capacity.
The power grid leads industrial development in two aspects
Under the guidance of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, the core feature of a new power system is that new energy becomes the main source of electricity supply. Energy storage devices can effectively smooth out power fluctuations generated by renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, making renewable energy relatively controllable.
"
Jia Pang stated that in the future, the power grid is expected to promote the better and faster construction of pumped storage stations from two main aspects. On one hand, the power grid should play its core hub role in the energy system, comprehensively and scientifically planning and deploying pumped storage stations to avoid coordination issues between station planning, ecological red line demarcation, territorial spatial planning, etc., which could affect the construction process and full utilization of the comprehensive benefits of pumped storage stations. On the other hand, the power grid should leverage its platform role in the market-oriented reform of electricity, further improving the pricing formation and diversion mechanisms for pumped storage stations, promoting equal participation of stations in medium- and long-term electricity transactions, spot market transactions, and ancillary service markets or ancillary service supplementary mechanisms, so that pumped storage stations can recover costs and obtain revenues through the market.
Yang Meng stated that with the resolution of the bottleneck in pumped storage electricity prices, the enthusiasm of the State Grid and the Southern Power Grid for the development of pumped storage has reached an unprecedented level. However, the procedures for verifying planning in the early stages of projects are still relatively complex. It is recommended to simplify the process and further enhance the certainty of investment returns.
*This article is reprinted from 'China Energy News', authored by Han Yifei, with the original title 'State Grid and Southern Grid Recently Actively Promote Project Implementation —— Two Networks Strengthening Layout for Pumped Storage'.
COMPANY NEWS
2022/03/25
Executives from Frost & Sullivan are invited to share insights on the current development status and future trends of the assisted reproductive industry
Executives from Frost & Sullivan are invited to share insights on the current development status and future trends of the assisted reproductive industry
The population issue has always been a hot topic in recent years and is also a top priority of proposals at the Two Sessions not long ago. What economic laws are behind the continuous decline in population in recent years? Who is troubled by whether to have children or not? Mr. Mao Hua, Partner and Managing Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, was invited to appear on the Titanium Media program 'Helen's Financial Dinner'. Together with Mr. Sun Cheng, Content Director for East China at Titanium Media, and Mr. Jin Lun, Researcher at the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Reform and Innovation Research Institute and financial columnist, they discussed this topic from two perspectives: the underlying reasons for the new low population and assisted reproductive methods.
Q: Since the birth of China's first 'test-tube baby' in 1988, human assisted reproductive technology has been widely applied and developed in our country for 30 years. It is believed that significant progress has been made over these years. Could you introduce some of the changes that have taken place over the years? And what are currently the more advanced medical methods of assisted reproduction?
Mr. Mao Hua introduced that assisted reproductive technology, abbreviated as ATR (Assisted Reproductive Technology), refers to the use of medical assistance to enable infertile couples to conceive. Since the successful birth of China's first 'test-tube baby' in 1988, more and more infertile couples in China have conceived through assisted reproductive technology, which has developed into a routine treatment method for tens of thousands of infertile couples. In 1999, Chinese scientists conducted the first preimplantation genetic diagnosis at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, and the following year, the first preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) baby was born. With innovations in technology and methods, improvements in in vitro culture conditions and environment, and the refinement of controlled ovarian stimulation protocols, the pregnancy rate and live birth rate of ART have significantly increased. Since 1989, China has continuously improved its laws and regulations related to assisted reproduction, with strict industry access threshold standards.
Although China's assisted reproductive technology started relatively late, it has developed rapidly. The level of its technology and derivative technologies is gradually aligning with the world standard and is gradually reaching international advanced levels. After more than 30 years of rapid development, China now has treated over 200,000 patients annually with assisted reproductive technology, becoming the world's leading country in this field. China's assisted reproductive technology is gradually maturing and has even reached a world-leading level in certain areas. On September 19, 2014, the world's first test-tube baby for single-gene genetic disease screening was born at Peking University Third Hospital using MALBAC genome amplification followed by high-throughput sequencing. Subsequent cord blood gene testing confirmed that the infant did not carry pathogenic loci. This marks that China's preimplantation genetic diagnosis technology has reached a world-leading level, and 'birth defects', as a major reproductive health challenge, have also been overcome.
In recent years, with technological advancements, new assisted reproductive technologies have been able to better assist doctors in clinical diagnosis and provide patients with more feasible and high-quality treatment options. For example, Research on DNA Fragmentation Index Clear indicators for male infertility can help doctors decide whether to use ICSI treatment or conventional IVF treatment. Endometrial receptivity array detection technology The success rate of implanting fertilized eggs can be evaluated by molecular analysis of endometrial tissue, which helps optimize the chances of successful transplantation after in vitro fertilization. Technological progress promotes the healthy development of the assisted reproductive services industry. In February 2020, China's first preimplantation genetic testing (PGT-A) product for non-homologous chromosome aberrations was approved for market release. By the end of 2020, medical institutions offering human assisted reproductive technology services were operating in all provinces and cities across the country, continuously improving accessibility. Various assisted reproductive technologies have developed rapidly, with technical levels gradually improving and service capabilities continuously enhancing, bringing good news to many infertile couples and making important contributions to family harmony and social stability.
Assisted reproductive technologies include two main categories: Artificial Insemination (AI) and In Vitro Fertilization and Embryo Transfer (IVF-ET) and their derivative techniques. In vitro fertilization with embryo transfer (IVF-ET) is the method used to produce babies through this technology. In addition, there are also some new technical approaches in experimental stages, such as whole-genome screening IVF-ET and stem cell babies.
Assisted reproductive services mainly consist of the following different projects: artificial insemination, gamete transfer, and in vitro fertilization (IVF). Artificial insemination can be further divided into husband sperm artificial insemination (AIH) and donor sperm artificial insemination (AID). Gamete transfer mainly includes intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) and intrauterine gamete transfer (IUT). IVF is divided into three generations, each suitable for different patients.
The currently more advanced assisted reproductive technology is the third-generation in vitro fertilization (IVF) technique. PGT (Preimplantation Genetic Testing), also known as third-generation in vitro fertilization technology, refers to the genetic testing and detection of chromosomal abnormalities before an embryo conceived through in vitro fertilization is implanted into the mother's uterus. PGT technology can be divided into preimplantation genetic diagnosis (abbreviated as PGD) and preimplantation genetic screening (abbreviated as PGS). Currently, PGT can block 263 single-gene genetic diseases such as thalassemia, deafness, and spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), preventing birth defects; at the same time, it can effectively eliminate embryos with chromosomal abnormalities for infertile couples due to chromosomal structural abnormalities (such as balanced translocation/Robertsonian translocation and microdeletions/repeats). This method can directly screen out problematic embryos, selecting those with normal genetic material for implantation into the uterus, thereby improving pregnancy rates, reducing miscarriage rates, and preventing the birth of children with single-gene diseases and chromosomal abnormalities.
Q: What are the upstream and downstream forms of assisted reproduction? Why is clinical testing, especially chromosome testing, receiving increasing attention, which is considered to have a significant impact on eugenics and healthy childbearing?
A: 'The upstream of the assisted reproductive technology industry chain mainly includes reagents used before surgery, medications and instruments used during the assisted reproductive cycle, etc. The midstream mainly consists of pharmaceuticals, equipment agents, as well as some mobile and internet platforms. The downstream mainly comprises institutions that provide various assisted reproductive services to patients.'
Mr. Mao Hua further explained that the upstream of the assisted reproductive industry includes suppliers of drugs, devices, and diagnostic reagents. The market scale for assisted reproductive medications is about one hundred billion yuan, including drugs for down-regulation, ovulation induction, ovulation stimulation, and luteal support. Among them, ovulation-stimulating drugs account for 60%, and luteal-supporting drugs account for 20%.
The midstream of the industrial chain consists of assisted reproductive service institutions. Relying on the advantages of internet channels, these institutions have launched an online consultation APP for peripheral services related to assisted reproduction. Offline, they achieve precise customer acquisition through medical service entities and then direct them to downstream assisted reproductive medical service institutions, realizing a deep integration of 'Internet + assisted reproduction'.
The downstream of the industry consists of assisted reproductive medical service institutions. The market concentration in the downstream is low, with a highly fragmented competitive landscape, and public medical institutions have a more obvious advantage.
Preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) refers to the screening of embryo chromosomes before embryo transfer to eliminate embryos carrying genetic diseases and chromosomal abnormalities, thereby improving pregnancy outcomes. PGT technology includes the screening of non-identical chromosome pairs and the detection of embryos carrying certain known pathogenic genes. Depending on the purpose, PGT technologies are divided into preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A), preimplantation genetic testing for monogenic (PGT-M), and preimplantation genetic testing for chromosomal structural rearrangements (PGT-SR).
According to research, up to 50% of early miscarriages are associated with aneuploidy of the embryo. Aneuploid embryos are difficult to implant, and even a small number that do implant often develop poorly. The incidence of chromosomal aneuploidy in embryos is related to the age of the pregnant woman, increasing with age. Homozygous embryos are more likely to implant and have better pregnancy outcomes. Therefore, the focus of evaluation has shifted from embryo morphology to chromosome aneuploidy screening. PGT-A can effectively increase the success rate of pregnancy by performing aneuploid screening on embryos. PGT-M (Preimplantation Genetic Testing for Males), which prevents the birth of male patients with X-linked recessive genetic diseases by selecting female embryos, has gained widespread clinical recognition for preventing single-gene genetic disorders with high incidence and mortality rates. PGT-M can use fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) technology to screen for balanced embryos, thereby preventing the transmission of abnormal chromosomes between two generations. The ultimate goal of PGT is to identify embryos with normal chromosomes, allowing for the implantation of healthy embryos back into the mother's womb, thereby greatly increasing the chances of pregnancy. This is especially beneficial for older women who have experienced multiple failed in vitro fertilization attempts and are at high risk of miscarriage. It can effectively prevent the occurrence of genetic diseases, while also avoiding potential harm from elective abortions and multiple abortions. It prevents physical and psychological trauma to pregnant women and their families due to the need to terminate pregnancy.
Q: Apart from China, what are the characteristics of assisted reproductive technologies worldwide?
Mr. Mao Hua stated that the global assisted reproductive industry has shown a strong trend, mainly reflected in rapid technological updates, large-scale industry development, and rapid growth of cross-border assisted reproductive markets. Overseas assisted reproductive policies are mature with high penetration rates.
1) Overseas assisted reproductive technology is leading
Compared with domestic services, most assisted reproductive technologies abroad have a leading edge. In terms of success rates, in vitro fertilization (IVF) in the United States is 1.6 times more effective than that in Thailand and 2.6 times more effective than IVF in China. According to the analysis report data from Frost & Sullivan, the average success rate of in vitro fertilization (IVF) at officially approved reproductive centers and infertility hospitals in China is 30%-40%, with a slightly higher success rate for younger individuals; whereas the average success rate of IVF in the United States is 70%-80%, ranking first in the world; in Thailand and Malaysia, the success rate is 60%-70%, second only to the United States.
From the perspective of technological generations, most domestic hospitals are still operating on the first and second-generation in vitro fertilization (IVF) technologies. In contrast, countries such as the United States, Thailand, and Malaysia have maturely adopted the third-generation IVF PGD technology, which is considered a global top-tier technique. The third-generation IVF PGD technology abroad has been clinically used for over 20 years and leads China by more than a decade. It has an advantage in screening genetic diseases and chromosomal issues, capable of detecting up to 250 different genetic disorders. IVF cycles can be divided into multiple phases (2 days or 28 days), with precise dosages of ovulation-stimulating drugs that cause almost no side effects. Embryo transfer using blastocysts increases success rates even further. High-end laboratories abroad and experienced IVF experts ensure the success rate of IVF, along with personalized medical service management that provides one-on-one services from doctors. Therefore, in terms of laboratory level, embryologist technology, and doctor clinical experience, foreign IVF has more advantages.
2) Improvement of overseas assisted reproductive policies
Foreign policies allow the commercialization of reproductive cells: In countries abroad such as the United States and the United Kingdom, assisted reproduction is mostly led by companies. In private clinics offering artificial insemination, commercial sperm are commonly used, and there are also cases where women sell their own eggs.
Proportion of Recipients from the Same Donor: Most sperm banks abroad are commercial ones, and different private clinics have varying regulations on this ratio. It can range from 1:10 to 1:25 or even higher. In cases where the ratio is high, it allows for the maximum utilization of physiologically 'excellent' genes, thereby providing a certain guarantee for embryo quality.
Foreign single women can adopt assisted reproduction: In countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, single women and gay couples can also conceive children through assisted reproductive technology.
Surrogacy abroad is legal: In countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, surrogacy is recognized as legal in multiple states, with relatively complete legal regulations and professional surrogacy intermediary agencies. Hong Kong in China also recognizes the legality of childbearing through surrogacy.
Q: What are the current domestic companies related to assisted reproduction? What characteristics do they exhibit? What is our current level of technology?
A: 1) Upstream enterprises:
Equipment consumables: Desheng Biotech, Beikang Medical, BGI Medical, Yingsheng Biotech, Berry Health, Bio-Ocean, Antu Biotech, Yikang Gene, Jiarong Renhe, Yahui Long Biotechnology
Drugs: Merck Sharp & Dohme, Xianju Pharmaceutical, Lizhu Medicine, Jinsai Pharmaceutical
2) Midstream and downstream enterprises:
Jinxin Reproductive Medicine, Aiview Medical, Med66 Medical, Tongce Medical
The upstream multinational pharmaceutical companies in the assisted reproductive industry, such as Merck Serono and Merck Sharp & Dohme, have a clear competitive advantage. With the improvement of domestic R&D innovation levels and the enhancement of generic drug consistency evaluation, domestic pharmaceutical companies like Lizhu Group and Xianju Pharmaceutical will accelerate their penetration into high-end markets and speed up the process of domestic substitution. The production of assisted reproductive devices is mainly by foreign manufacturers, who almost monopolize the device market, such as Vitrolife and ORIGIO. China mainly produces auxiliary devices and consumables such as egg retrieval needles, embryo transfer catheters, and culture dishes. In the future, with the support and improvement of domestic assisted reproductive policies, and under the impetus of an environment that encourages domestic substitution, companies like Deshi (a manufacturer of chromosome testing equipment and auxiliary devices and consumables) are continuously deploying in the field of domestic assisted reproduction, reducing import dependence, and achieving domestic substitution will be an inevitable trend.
The middle and lower reaches are assisted reproductive service institutions. The downstream market has a low concentration, highly fragmented competition, and public medical institutions have a clear advantage. Most assisted reproductive centers can provide basic assisted reproductive services, but there is a significant gap in high-end technology needs, indicating that there is room for substantial improvement in overall assisted reproductive center technology. Data from the National Health Commission show that as of June 30, 2020, there were 523 medical institutions approved to carry out human assisted reproduction, with private hospital assisted reproductive centers accounting for about 10%. According to statistics, 325 centers provide intrauterine insemination (IUI) with husband's sperm, 83 provide donor insemination, 398 provide conventional IVF-ET, 399 provide intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), and 71 provide preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). Among these, 45 assisted reproductive medical institutions offer all five technologies, accounting for 8.6% of the total national number.
Q: We have noticed that companies related to assisted reproduction are particularly favored by capital in terms of financing. What is your view on these startups? What are their future development directions?
A: With the continuous development of the social economy and the accelerating pace of life and work, fertility issues have become one of the urgent problems that need to be addressed in China and around the world. In recent years, the number of infertile couples in China has been increasing year by year, reaching 49.9 million in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2015 to 2019. According to Frost & Sullivan's forecast, by 2024, this number will steadily grow to 52.6 million, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.1% from 2019 to 2024. The continuous postponement of marriage and childbearing age, coupled with the increasing population of elderly pregnant women driven by the three-child policy, and the urgent need for improved birth outcomes due to neonatal defects, have made the assisted reproductive industry one of the potential markets with the fastest demand growth and expansion in China's healthcare services sector.
As an emerging market for assisted reproduction, China has maintained a high growth rate in recent years. The Chinese assisted reproductive service market has increased from 162 billion yuan in 2015 to 282 billion yuan in 2019, on par with the US market, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.9%. With the increasing demand for assisted reproductive services, the Chinese market will continue to expand rapidly, expected to reach 681 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.3%. In China, assisted reproduction has high barriers, strong premium pricing power, and huge potential for market penetration. These characteristics make it an important reason why the assisted reproduction sector attracts capital.
Currently, Beijing has taken the lead, ushering assisted reproductive technology services from an era of 'no medical coverage' into one where they are 'paid for by medical insurance'. . With the gradual maturity of assisted reproductive technology and national policy support for the industry, the assisted reproductive sector is about to enter a strategic opportunity period. In any case, the assisted reproductive service market is an untapped blue ocean. Nowadays, with the capitalization of some leading enterprises and the entry of more capital providers, start-up private assisted reproductive institutions are expected to welcome a new spring, while large assisted reproductive medical groups will gradually form and stand out. This market, worth hundreds of billions, will also experience accelerated explosive growth.
China's assisted reproductive industry is in the growth phase, and future market demand is promising. The innovation of assisted reproductive technologies through multidisciplinary collaboration will become the core driving force for the development of the industry.
1) Development of private assisted reproductive institutions
At present, the assisted reproductive service industry in China is still dominated by public medical institutions. Policies encourage the utilization of social resources for the operation of medical institutions, such as the 'Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Accelerated Development of Private Medical Institutions,' and the opening up of relevant approval certificates will lead to rapid development of private assisted reproductive institutions. In addition, private assisted reproductive medical institutions have the advantages of high flexibility and high service quality. With the increasingly clear requirements from the Ministry of Health for assisted reproductive hospitals and the expansion of market space, private assisted reproductive hospitals are increasingly integrating with the capital side, and downstream ports of the industry are gradually opening up, highlighting investment value. In the near future, more patients will tend to choose private assisted reproductive centers for assisted reproductive treatment, which will promote the rapid development of private assisted reproductive centers.
2) Chain operation
In China, due to the reproducibility of assisted reproductive services and a streamlined professional structure, there is a greater preference for development towards medical chains. The chain operation of assisted reproductive centers can share medical resources, brand images, improve overall operational efficiency, and promote coordinated development among various assisted reproductive institutions.
3) Continuously advancing technological progress
With the acceleration of globalization, assisted reproductive centers will have more opportunities to learn advanced assisted reproductive technologies and cooperate with outstanding overseas medical institutions. In turn, this will also enhance the technical level of ART centers. At the same time, third-generation technologies such as PGD and PGS are becoming increasingly popular in China, helping couples achieve better birth outcomes. The continuous improvement in technical levels will promote the development of the assisted reproductive service industry.
COMPANY NEWS
2022/03/24
Frost & Sullivan has been awarded the "Great Health Brand Value Communication Award" and the "2021 Public Welfare Responsibility Brand Award"
Frost & Sullivan has been awarded the "Great Health Brand Value Communication Award" and the "2021 Public Welfare Responsibility Brand Award"
Recently, the 5th Public Welfare Event Grand Ceremony 2022 was grandly held at the Hainan Boao • Asia Forum International Conference Center. The Public Welfare Event Grand Ceremony was jointly initiated by the Zhongshi Caifeng Network • Frost & Sullivan (Frost & Sullivan, abbreviated as "Frost & Sullivan") won two major awards at this year's public welfare grand ceremony: the "Grand Health Brand Value Communication Award" and the "2021 Public Welfare Responsible Brand Award".
Grand Health Brand Value Communication Award
Frost & Sullivan, integrating over 60 years of global consulting experience, has been serving the booming Chinese market with dedication for 24 years. With a global perspective, it helps clients accelerate their business growth and achieve industry-leading benchmarks in terms of growth, innovation, and technology. The healthcare industry is one of Frost & Sullivan's core areas of focus. Over the past seventeen years, the Frost & Sullivan healthcare team has provided financing financial advisory, IPO industry advisory, strategic consulting, management consulting, and other services to hundreds of outstanding domestic and international biopharmaceuticals, medical devices, healthcare services, and internet healthcare companies. Successful listings include: Clear Medical, Bexcellence Biologics, Yonghe Medical, Kailaiying, Beihai Kangcheng, Gushengtang, Yingpeng Technology, Clover Biotech, Minimally Invasive Robotics, Xianruida, Yimaitong, Chaopu Eye Hospital, Huahuang Medicine, Nature Pharmaceuticals, Novogene Health, Tianyan Pharmaceuticals, Minimally Invasive Xin Tong, Rui Li Medical Beauty, JD Health, Ocular Vision, Tianjing Biology, China Antibody, WuXi AppTec, Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, CR Pharma, BBI Life Sciences, and hundreds of other related enterprises in the healthcare sector. According to the number of filings, the Frost & Sullivan healthcare team maintains an absolute leading position in Hong Kong healthcare IPOs, consistently ranking first in market share from 2018 to 2021.
Since the listing of the first batch of companies on the Sci-tech Innovation Board in July 2019, Frost & Sullivan reports have also been widely cited in the prospectuses of leading Sci-tech Innovation Board listed companies in the industry, including: Heyuan Biotech, Mawei Biotech, Yahong Medicine, Jiahe Meikang, Dizhe Medicine, Novogene, Chengda Biology, Huaxi Biology, Junshi Biology, Zijing Pharmaceutical, Bai'ao Tai, and Shenzhou Cells. It is considered one of the most powerful, professional, and influential industry research institutions in the sector.
Due to the pandemic, the Third Grand Health Industry Summit Forum has been postponed until the same period as the Fifth Public Welfare Event. This summit forum is themed 'Leading the Development of the Health Industry and Displaying Innovative Health Products', aiming to build upon past successful experiences and strive to become the largest and most influential health brand in China's health history.
The awarding of the 'Great Health Brand Value Communication Award' this time is a full affirmation by the industry of Frost & Sullivan's outstanding achievements in the field of great health. In the future, Frost & Sullivan hopes to continue working with enterprises to understand industry trends, seize development opportunities, jointly promote innovation and upgrading of China's great health industry, and build a healthy future.
2021 Public Welfare Responsibility Brand Award
As a globally renowned growth consulting firm, Frost & Sullivan has been dedicated to its commitment to growth and its contribution to society over the past 60-plus years. Therefore, Frost & Sullivan has always regarded engaging in public welfare as an important part of its social responsibility.
Pay attention to the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, and jointly launch the Annual Public Welfare Project Pilot Program
In order to provide startup and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with essential professional services and assistance for entrepreneurship, empower them in transformation and upgrading, enhance internal efficiency and strategic development, enabling them to quickly establish advantages, LeadLeo Research Institute under Frost & Sullivan launched the 'Pilot/Navigator Program' in 2021, with Frost & Sullivan serving as the Chief Growth Advisor for the program. As of the end of 2021, the 'Pilot/Navigator Program' has helped nearly a hundred SMEs complete business research, provided value communication services, and assisted these SMEs in connecting with parks and capital, contributing to their comprehensive growth.
A sense of responsibility towards the country and family, to help each other and work together through thick and thin
In July 2021, Henan Province experienced extreme heavy rainfall, causing severe disaster conditions. Frost & Sullivan's Greater China region has been closely monitoring the progress of frontline relief efforts and donated RMB 200,000 to Henan through the Zhengzhou Charity Federation to help alleviate poverty and difficulties in the affected areas, working together to overcome challenges.
Innovation proposes sustainable cultural knowledge-based poverty alleviation
On November 15, 2021, Frost & Sullivan will donate the first batch of 300 sets of sportswear, 150 schoolbags, and 150 pairs of padded cotton shoes to Kaxiang Primary School in Shenzha County through a charitable organization. The aim is to assist teenagers in remote areas in their learning and growth, help them change their fate through cultural knowledge, and bring a bit of warmth and good luck to children in high-altitude and cold regions.
Dr. Wang Xin, Global Partner and President of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, who was awarded the '2021 Public Welfare Responsibility Brand Award', stated: 'The corporate mission of Frost & Sullivan is to make the world a better place through growth; corporate growth and social responsibility complement each other and are both our foundation.' In the future, Frost & Sullivan will remain true to its original aspiration, keep the growth mission in mind, create value through growth, and give back to society with responsibility.
MEDIA COVERAGE
2022/03/09
Caixin | The European new energy transition is accelerating. How does it affect the A-share photovoltaic sector?
Caixin | The European new energy transition is accelerating. How does it affect the A-share photovoltaic sector?
Frost & Sullivan insights
The intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly driven up traditional oil and gas (petroleum, natural gas) prices. The uncertainty about the direction of the conflict adds many risks to subsequent traditional oil and gas supply. Moreover, Europe has already experienced an energy crisis due to extreme weather and other factors. In the past year, electricity prices in Europe rose by 790% compared to the beginning of the year; UK NBP natural gas futures increased by 700% compared to the beginning of the year. Coupled with the turmoil in the Russia-Ukraine situation, natural gas supply has become even more variable.
Under the current situation, will the Russia-Ukraine crisis accelerate the process of new energy power generation in Europe, or even globally? With onshore wind power entering parity, how do you view this year's onshore wind sector? Looking at the whole year, which link of the photovoltaic industry chain is more promising? Xu Biao and Zhang Zhiwei, Executive Directors of Frost & Sullivan's Greater China region, recently spoke with Caixin about the impact of accelerating the new energy process in Europe.
Caixin
The intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly driven up traditional oil and gas (petroleum, natural gas) prices. The uncertainty about the direction of the conflict adds many risks to future traditional oil and gas supply. Prior to this, Europe had already experienced an energy crisis due to extreme weather, with electricity prices in the region rising by 790% compared to the beginning of the year; UK NBP natural gas futures have risen by 700% compared to the beginning of the year. Coupled with the disturbances caused by the Russia-Ukraine situation, natural gas supply is further complicated. Affected by this, some countries such as Germany have proposed new legislative drafts, aiming to advance the goal of achieving 100% renewable energy generation to 2035, 15 years ahead of the previous target.
Q
Under the current situation, will the Russia-Ukraine crisis accelerate the process of new energy power generation in Europe, or even globally? If German legislation is officially implemented, it will greatly drive demand for wind and photovoltaic power. What impact will this have on China's wind, photovoltaic, and energy storage industries? Which links in China's new energy industry chain will benefit significantly? Which targets are more advantageous?
Xu Biao, Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China
Xu Biao, Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, said: The Russia-Ukraine crisis has had a profound impact on the new energy market in Europe and even globally, and it is expected to have far-reaching effects in the medium to long term. Just as the oil crises that occurred three times between 1973 and 1990, centered around the Middle East, were followed by increased control over strategic resources such as oil, along with significant efforts to develop new energy industries, enhance energy independence, and ensure energy security.
As Germany plans to phase out nuclear power completely in 2022 and coal-fired power in 2038, if the corresponding amendments to the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) are officially implemented, the process of wind and solar power becoming the core support for Germany's energy independence will further accelerate. Germany has a high import dependence on Russian natural gas, with more than half of its natural gas coming from Russia. Although Germany will still face many challenges in reducing its energy dependence, the German bill will not only promote the development of wind and photovoltaic power in the country but also have a positive impact on the development of new energy sources such as wind and photovoltaic power in various countries. As the world's largest wind and photovoltaic market, China possesses the most complete wind and photovoltaic industrial chain. Against the backdrop of accelerating development in the wind and photovoltaic industries, China will receive significant impetus.
In addition, the development of distributed energy systems is also an important direction for new energy development. Especially in Europe where electricity and energy prices remain high, distributed energy systems represented by rooftop solar systems are developing rapidly. The development of distributed energy systems cannot be separated from the development of energy storage systems. As the world's largest producer of lithium batteries, China plays a crucial role in supplying lithium battery energy storage systems. In the global process of new energy development, Leading enterprises in the industrial chain with price advantages, scale advantages, and overseas business layout will benefit more significantly.
Q
Domestically, green power (wind and photovoltaic) has been continuously adjusting since November 2021. What is the core contradiction? Recently, photovoltaics have rebounded somewhat, while wind power performance has been slightly worse. So, what the market is currently focusing on is whether this rebound in photovoltaics is sustainable. From an industry perspective, prices in the photovoltaic supply chain have risen consecutively recently. This suggests that terminal installation demand has warmed up, but under the pressure of rising upstream prices, will battery cell and module profits also be pressured in the short term? Looking at the whole year, which segment of the photovoltaic supply chain is more promising?
Zhang Zhiwei, Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China
Zhang Zhiwei, Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, said : Over the past year, the price of silicon materials has risen beyond expectations, with an overall increase of over 160%, and at its highest, it exceeded 200%. Excessive raw material prices have continuously pushed up the prices of silicon wafers and battery modules, severely damaging downstream terminal installations. Some terminal enterprises cannot afford the high costs, and many installation and commissioning plans have been postponed to the next year. Looking at the annual installed capacity, the industry generally predicts that the installed capacity in 2021 can reach 55-65 GW. However, due to reasons such as price increases and delayed issuance of indicators, expectations are basically reduced by about 10 GW in November and December. In fact, the photovoltaic installed capacity in 2021 was 53 GW. Under the significant policy benefits, the unexpectedly poor performance of photovoltaic installations has clearly triggered market concerns. Especially given that the industry's valuation had already increased significantly earlier on, the market is relatively sensitive. Coupled with negative news from international markets such as the US proposal to extend tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic products in November last year, domestic funds have become more cautious about the photovoltaic market. It can be said that stimulated by both negative domestic and international news, the photovoltaic industry underwent a significant adjustment in the secondary market starting from November last year.
After the end of this year, downstream terminals began to release inventory, including both new demand and projects that were postponed from last year to this year. Leading market companies started to raise silicon wafer prices, which were affected by rising upstream silicon material costs but also fully reflected the continuous improvement in downstream battery and module production, with terminal demand beginning to recover. Since mid-February, market expectations have gradually improved, bringing a small rebound to the photovoltaic market. It is expected that the photovoltaic installed capacity this year will reach 80 GW, and this rebound will also last for some time. However, the rapid changes in the international situation also bring a hint of uncertainty to the overall market.
Looking at the overall industrial chain, I am quite optimistic about the silicon material and silicon wafer segments. Regarding silicon materials, although production capacity is gradually being released, the supply remains tight this year due to rapidly growing demand. For the silicon wafer segment, it is appropriate to transfer the upward pressure on upstream silicon material prices to downstream components and battery cells. However, the component segment needs to deliver to end-users and must maintain price stability; moreover, with the price of downstream component orders remaining stable, there is some resistance to rising battery prices, which will bear more cost pressure. Additionally, it is important to note that Although the photovoltaic industry has broad prospects, it is also necessary to be cautious about the risk of overcapacity under the scenario where all parties intensify their efforts to expand production.
Q
Onshore wind power has entered parity, how should we view this year's onshore wind sector? Regarding offshore wind, since parity is about to be achieved in 2022, cost reduction in the offshore wind industry chain cannot be accomplished overnight. In the short term, if the costs of offshore wind projects remain high, offshore wind investors may face the risk of not making a profit, which will greatly weaken their investment willingness. Additionally, in 2021, downstream wind farms were busy rushing to install turbines, leading to fewer tendering for offshore wind projects in 2021 and thus affecting the construction of offshore wind projects in 2022. Against this backdrop, how will it impact the market trend of the offshore wind sector in 2022? Considering domestic supply and demand as well as the Russia-Ukraine situation, how should we view the medium- and long-term trends of offshore and onshore wind?
Xu Biao, Executive Director of Frost & Sullivan Greater China, said: 2021 was the first year of grid parity for onshore wind power. Although the new installed capacity of onshore wind power has significantly decreased compared to the rush installation boom in 2020, it still grew by nearly 20% compared to 2019. Under the guidance of the 'dual carbon goals,' national and local governments have put forward clear new tasks for wind power development. It is expected that the onshore wind power sector will operate in an environment of high prosperity in 2022. The decline in unit prices is an important driving force for wind power to enter a era of parity and low prices. Changes in wind turbine prices in 2022 will still be a focal point of market attention.
The last year of the national subsidy for offshore wind power in 2021 is followed by a three-year period of grid parity transition for offshore wind power. At present, the offshore wind power market in 2022 is mainly based on existing orders, with limited new resources released by local governments. At present, there is still significant cost reduction potential for offshore wind power. 2022 is a critical year for adjustments in the offshore wind sector.
Against the backdrop that domestic wind power is gradually entering an era of parity and low prices, coupled with rising raw material costs, the profits of the wind power industry chain are under pressure. In addition, affected by the Russia-Ukraine situation, global demand for new energy is accelerating expansion, and there is still significant potential for overseas exports from China's wind power industry. In the medium to long term, the development of China's wind power market will gradually stabilize, and there are relatively good prospects and incentives for the expansion of China's wind power industry into overseas markets.

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